2025-05-27-Jefferies-硬奢侈品期刊-硬事实_12页_596kb

Switzerland Luxury Brands Equity Research Report Summary
Date: May 27, 2025

Key Highlights:

• April 2025 Swiss watch exports increased by approximately 20% in value, primarily due to accelerated shipments caused by US tariffs. Excluding the US impact, global exports were down by 6.4%.
• The US market saw a sharp 150% increase in export value, while other regions showed mixed results: UK +1.6%, China -30.5%, Hong Kong -22.8%, and Japan +1.9%.
• The highest price segment (>CHF 3,000) grew strongly (+22.9% YoY), whereas the mid-price category (+5.2% YoY) lagged due to weak demand, negative for ultra-high-end watches.
• Consumer engagement with hard luxury (e.g., Cartier, Rolex) remains strong, with higher search interest and digital traffic compared to soft luxury brands. Secondary market watch prices fell slightly less (-4.8% YoY).
• Compagnie Financière Richemont (CFR) is recommended as "Buy" with a CHF 140 price target, valuing the group at 21.8x 2025E P/E. The valuation reflects challenges with market position relative to soft luxury, despite current trading near historic lows.
• Risks include sharper-than-expected demand decline in key markets like Europe and US, prolonged issues in China, and historical underperformance of hard luxury against soft luxury.

this summary covers key trends and recommendations from the full report.