2017年-世界发展银行全球_Comoros_Public_Expenditure_and_Fiscal_Management_Review_84页_10mb
报告摘要
Comoros Public Expenditure and Fiscal Management Review Summary
Core Content
The Comoros Public Expenditure and Fiscal Management Review is a comprehensive assessment aimed at strengthening the Government of Comoros' fiscal management and public expenditure program. The review analyzes trends in fiscal policy, identifies key challenges in budget execution and credibility, and provides actionable recommendations for improving the sustainability of public finances, particularly in the electricity and service delivery sectors.
Main Findings
- Fiscal Management Gains: Comoros has made progress in fiscal management, with a modest fiscal deficit of 1% of GDP on average between 2008 and 2014. This was supported by a 26% real growth in the budget and reforms that increased customs revenues by 55%.
- Fragile Fiscal Position: Despite these gains, the fiscal framework is becoming increasingly fragile. The budget faces rising spending pressures from civil service recruitment, MA-MWE's financing gap, and the electoral cycle.
- Revenue Volatility: The Comorian franc's depreciation has increased the share of import-related revenues to 49% of total revenues, making them vulnerable to exchange rate and commodity price shocks. Revenue volatility is rising, while recurrent spending is becoming more rigid.
- Service Delivery Underfunding: Island governments have not been strategic in allocating resources for service delivery. They prioritize salary and administrative costs over essential public services, leading to underfunding of areas such as teaching materials, medical drugs, and infrastructure.
- Electricity Sector Crisis: The electricity sector, managed by MA-MWE, is a significant fiscal burden. It has accumulated arrears and requires ongoing subsidies. The sector's financial sustainability is under threat due to high diesel costs, low collection rates, and administrative inefficiencies.
Key Recommendations
| Category | Short-Term Recommendations | Medium-Term Recommendations |
|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Sustainability | - Adopt a medium-term fiscal plan with targets for expanding fiscal space and reorienting public expenditure. <br> - Reduce exemptions and implement the integrated human resource management system (GISE). <br> - Adopt the debt management bill and a medium-term debt strategy. | - Increase capacity of tax and customs agencies. <br> - Strengthen the budget classification and reporting framework. |
| Budget Credibility | - Improve treasury planning by implementing monthly and quarterly cash plans. <br> - Limit the use of exceptional payment procedures to no more than 5% of total expenditures. <br> - Reduce undefined budgetary items to less than 10% of total allocations. | - Review the budget preparation calendar and foster dialogue between sectoral ministries and the Ministry of Finance. <br> - De-concentrate budget execution authority to line ministries. |
| Service Delivery | - Set recruitment caps based on student-teacher and physician-per-health-facility ratios. <br> - Commission a policy review to transition from general-purpose to targeted transfers. | - Institute evidence-based policy dialogue with communities and island authorities. <br> - Identify under-funded priority areas to guide resource allocation. |
| Electricity Sector | - Accelerate MA-MWE's Recovery Plan by fast-tracking commercial and infrastructure reforms. <br> - Immediately reduce diesel prices to reflect global trends. <br> - Account for MA-MWE's subsidy in the national budget. <br> - Prepare updated financial reports for audit. | - Reform the fuel purchasing process to introduce a flexible price mechanism. <br> - Clear arrears between MA-MWE and the government. <br> - Review administrative costs for potential savings. <br> - Diversify electricity production to reduce reliance on diesel. |
Tools Developed
The review includes several tools to support fiscal management and policy planning:
- Energy Sector Model: A simulation tool to analyze the fiscal implications of electricity sector reforms. It assesses MA-MWE's income and balance sheet, and evaluates the impact of subsidies and financing gaps.
- Revenue Forecasting Framework: A method to generate more accurate and reliable revenue estimates. It uses regression analysis and economic indicators to forecast revenue changes and incorporates tax policy impacts.
- Database of Revenue and Expenditure and Medium Term Fiscal Projections Framework: A tool to support comprehensive fiscal planning and resource allocation by tracking revenue and expenditure trends over time.
Conclusion
The review highlights the need for urgent fiscal consolidation reforms to address the growing fiscal pressures and improve the sustainability of public finances. It emphasizes the importance of balancing recurrent and investment spending, enhancing revenue collection, and reorienting budget allocations towards essential public services. The electricity sector requires immediate and sustained reforms to reduce its fiscal burden and improve operational efficiency. Overall, the review underscores the necessity of strengthening fiscal management systems, improving budget credibility, and implementing targeted policies to ensure long-term economic stability and service delivery effectiveness.
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