2009年-世界发展银行全球_Georgia___Poverty_assessment_194页_15mb

报告摘要

Georgia Poverty Assessment Summary (April 2009)

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of poverty in Georgia, focusing on macroeconomic developments, rural poverty, labor markets, social protection, health reform, and education reform. It uses data from the 2007 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) and the 2003 Household Budget Survey (HBS) to assess poverty trends and their determinants. The report also simulates the poverty impact of the August 2008 conflict and the global financial crisis.

Main Findings

Improvement in Living Standards: Georgia has seen significant improvements in living standards since 2003, with household real monetary incomes increasing by 31.6% (7.9% annually) between 2003 and 2007. This growth aligns with national income growth reported in national accounts.
Social Transfers as a Key Factor: Social transfers, especially pensions and the Targeted Social Assistance (TSA) program, have increased substantially, contributing to poverty reduction. In 2007, social transfers accounted for 17.2% of total household monetary income, up from 6.8% in 2003.
Rural Poverty: Rural areas remain the most affected by poverty, accounting for 60% of the poor population. This is due to limited economic growth outside agriculture, a self-subsistence-based agricultural sector, and stagnant incomes in the agricultural sector.
Labor Market Performance: Despite increases in average real earnings, the labor market has not significantly contributed to poverty reduction. Job destruction has outpaced job creation, and the sectors that saw growth (construction, financial services, mining, public sector) account for only a minor share of overall employment.
Impact of Crisis: The August 2008 conflict with Russia and the global financial crisis are expected to increase poverty from 23.7% in 2007 to 27.1% in 2009, affecting approximately 350,000 people. Without these crises, poverty would have declined to 19.2% by the end of 2009.
Social Protection: Social assistance has become a critical lifeline for the poor, especially the extreme poor. It has a significant impact on reducing both poverty and inequality, with social transfers accounting for about one-third of household disposable income in the poorest quintile.
Health and Education: The health and education sectors have shown progress since 2003, with improvements in access and quality of services. However, out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures remain high, and there are significant inequalities in education access and outcomes, particularly for minority groups and rural populations.

Key Policy Recommendations

Expand Social Transfers: Extend the coverage of the Targeted Social Assistance (TSA) program to reach more of the poor, which would also help reduce rural poverty. However, this would require increased fiscal resources.
Invest in Infrastructure and Off-Farm Employment: Promote investments in rural infrastructure and create opportunities for off-farm employment to reduce reliance on self-subsistence agriculture and improve rural incomes.
Continue Reforms in Health and Education: Sustain reforms in the health and education sectors to enhance human capital, which is essential for long-term economic growth and poverty reduction.
Improve Data Collection: The World Bank recommends restoring the technical capacity of the Department of Statistics to ensure the quality of consumption data and maintain the HBS as a reliable tool for poverty monitoring.

Key Information

Currency: GEL (Georgian Lari), with 1.00 GEL = US$0.69.
Fiscal Year: January 1 to December 31.
Poverty Line: The report uses consumption-based poverty indicators, with poverty incidence and severity analyzed across different quintiles and regions.
Data Sources: The 2007 LSMS and 2003 HBS are the primary data sources, along with other surveys and reports from the World Bank and international organizations.
Poverty Headcount: In 2007, the poverty headcount was 23.7%, and it is forecasted to rise to 27.1% in 2009 due to the dual shocks of the conflict and the financial crisis.
Social Transfers: The TSA program introduced in 2006 has had a notable impact on reducing poverty and inequality, with no crowding-out effect on private transfers.
Education Inequality: There are significant disparities in education access and outcomes, especially in preschool and tertiary education, between minority and non-minority groups. Rural areas also face challenges in education infrastructure and access.
Health Inequality: OOP spending on health remains high, and there are issues with financial protection and access to healthcare services, particularly for the poor and minority groups.

Summary of Key Messages

Living Standards Improvement: Georgia has seen improvements in living standards since 2003, with substantial increases in monetary income and non-income indicators.
Rural Poverty Persistence: Rural areas continue to bear the brunt of poverty, with structural challenges in the agricultural sector.
Limited Labor Market Impact: The labor market has not significantly contributed to poverty reduction despite economic growth.
Social Transfers as a Crucial Tool: Social transfers, especially TSA, have played a vital role in poverty alleviation.
Crisis Impact on Poverty: The August 2008 conflict and global financial crisis are expected to increase poverty significantly.
Policy Focus Areas: The report recommends expanding social transfers, investing in rural infrastructure, and continuing reforms in health and education to achieve sustainable poverty reduction.

Figures and Tables Highlights

Figure 1: Shows the expected increase in poverty due to the conflict and financial crisis.
Table 1: Provides a comparison of household monetary income between 2003 and 2007.
Figure 2: Displays monetary income per adult equivalent by urban/rural areas.
Figure 3: Maps the geographic distribution of poverty in Georgia.
Table 2: Presents consumption-based poverty data for 2007.
Table 3: Compares health indicators in Georgia with CIS and EU countries.
Table 6.3: Shows the impact of OOP health spending on poverty across selected countries.
Table 7.1: Highlights the poor state of school infrastructure in Georgia.
Table 7.6: Indicates an increase in preschool enrollment rates, especially in the eastern part of the country.
Table 7.13: Notes a significant rise in school absenteeism among rural children due to work needs.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of social transfers, infrastructure development, and continued reforms in the health and education sectors for reducing poverty in Georgia. It also highlights the vulnerability of rural and minority populations and the potential negative impacts of the August 2008 conflict and the global financial crisis. The findings aim to inform the development of a national strategy for growth and poverty reduction.

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