2024-09-29-Incrementum-Incrementum年第3季度——顾问委员会呼叫转接（英）_30页_1mb
报告摘要
- The Grand Part of Bitcoin's Current Halving Cycle: Entering the latter phase of Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, where historically large gains have occurred.
- Bitcoin’s Volatility and Risk-Adjusted Returns:
- Volatility is a key concern for institutional adoption, though it is expected to persist.
- Risk-adjusted metrics (Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar ratios) indicate Bitcoin outperforms traditional assets like stocks and gold.
- Combining Bitcoin with gold in a portfolio can mitigate volatility while maintaining strong risk-adjusted returns.
- Stock-to-Flow Model and Diminishing Returns:
- The Stock-to-Flow model, emphasizing scarcity, predicts higher returns during adoption phases.
- The S-curve thesis suggests adoption is still early, potentially leading to accelerating returns despite historical diminishing returns post-halving.
- Institutional Adoption Challenges:
- Price volatility remains a primary concern for institutions, though ETF approval and legal risk reductions are increasing engagement.
- Institutions are likely to adopt Bitcoin due to its growing relevance and fiduciary duty considerations.
- Nation-State Adoption and Geopolitical Factors:
- Growing government and central bank interest in Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, especially amid US dollar dominance and BRICS’ trade diversification.
- Future price implications could be significant if Bitcoin becomes more widely adopted by nations.
- Gold vs. Bitcoin as Assets:
- Gold’s physicality and industrial use dampen volatility, while Bitcoin’s digital nature increases its volatility.
- Both assets serve similar roles as non-inflatable stores of value but are viewed differently based on risk tolerance.
- Future Outlook:
- The next bull market may begin within the current halving cycle.
- Price predictions range from $50,000 to over $4 million, depending on adoption and halving cycles.
- Successful adoption may lead to a shift toward Bitcoin as a global reserve asset, effectively reducing the dollar’s dominance.
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