CCC-2018汽车工业中的人工智能（英文版）-2018-57页-2mb

2018 Crash Course Summary: Putting the AI in the Automotive Industry

Core Content Overview

This document explores the transformative impact of digitalization, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and the Internet of Things (IoT) on the automotive industry, focusing on the full auto ownership life cycle from purchase to end of life. It highlights how these technological advances are reshaping consumer behavior, vehicle sales, insurance models, and repair practices.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Auto Sales and Market Trends

• 2017 Sales Performance: Over 90 million vehicles were sold globally in 2017. U.S. auto sales declined slightly to 17.25 million, but average vehicle prices rose, making it a profitable year for automakers.
• Light Truck Dominance: Light trucks made up 64.5% of U.S. new vehicle sales in 2017, driven by the popularity of SUVs and CUVs. Full-size pickups, in particular, are a key profit driver.
• 2018 Projections: Auto sales are expected to slow to between 16.5 million and 16.9 million in 2018 due to factors like higher interest rates and lower used vehicle values.
• Leasing Trends: Leasing accounted for 29% of new vehicle sales in 2017, down slightly from 30% in 2016. However, the influx of lease returns is expected to impact the used vehicle market.

2. Vehicle Ownership and Future Models

• Shift to Subscription Models: Automakers like Volvo, GM, Ford, and Porsche are introducing subscription-based car ownership models that include insurance, maintenance, and other services.
• Impact of Ride-Sharing and Autonomy: The rise of ride-sharing and autonomous vehicles (AVs) is expected to reduce personal vehicle ownership. Studies suggest AVs could replace up to 90% of personal vehicles by 2050.
• Consumer Behavior: With the average age of vehicles over 11 years, and low scrappage rates, personal vehicle ownership is expected to persist alongside AVs for the foreseeable future.

3. Insurance and Claims Transformation

• Insurance Premium Growth: The U.S. private passenger auto insurance market grew to over $200 billion in CY 2016, with rising premiums due to higher loss costs and more comprehensive coverage.
• Collision Claims and Deductibles: Over 19% of collision claims in 2017 had deductibles of $500 or more, indicating a shift toward higher deductibles and more expensive vehicles.
• AI and Telematics in Insurance: Telematics and usage-based insurance (UBI) are enabling insurers to access real-time data on driver behavior, leading to more personalized and proactive insurance services.
• Future of Claims: AI and telematics are streamlining the claims process, allowing vehicles to automatically report accidents and share data with insurers and repairers.

4. Vehicle Repair and Technology Impact

• Repair Cost Trends: The average repair cost for collision claims is well above $500, with higher value and younger vehicles more likely to have higher deductibles.
• OEM Involvement in Repair: Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are becoming more involved in providing repair guidance and specifications, which could change the traditional repairer role.
• Technological Advancements in Repair: The integration of AI, IoT, and advanced diagnostics is expected to change the tools, training, and investment needed in the collision repair industry.

5. Vehicle Autonomy and AI Integration

• Autonomous Vehicle Development: Companies like Waymo, GM, and Ford are testing fleets of self-driving vehicles on public roads, aiming to scale the technology and collect real-world data.
• Consumer Acceptance: While 47% of U.S. consumers still view AVs as unsafe in 2018, this number has improved from 74% in 2017, indicating growing acceptance.
• AI in Vehicles: AI is revolutionizing the automotive industry, with features like voice recognition, gesture control, and facial recognition becoming more common. Future systems may interpret tone and facial expressions to enhance the driving experience.

6. Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Market Challenges

• EV Adoption: Less than 1% of U.S. vehicles are pure battery electric vehicles, but automakers are pushing for significant electrification efforts.
• Regulatory and Technological Drivers: Regulatory changes and advancements in battery technology are pushing automakers to develop more electric vehicles, with companies like Toyota and GM planning to launch new EV models.
• Charging Infrastructure: Electrify America plans to install 2,800 EV charging stations in 17 major U.S. cities by 2019 to support EV adoption.

7. Future Implications and Opportunities

• Digital Transformation: The integration of AI, data analytics, and IoT is driving a digital transformation in the automotive industry, affecting everything from sales to insurance to repair.
• New Business Models: Subscription models, UBI, and telematics are creating new opportunities for automakers and insurers to engage with customers and manage risk more effectively.
• Market Saturation and Innovation: The auto industry is experimenting with new models to remain competitive in a saturated market, including car-sharing, lease alternatives, and AI-driven services.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is undergoing a profound transformation due to the rapid adoption of AI, IoT, and digital technologies. These changes are affecting the entire vehicle ownership life cycle, from buying and driving to insuring and repairing vehicles. As the industry moves toward autonomy and electrification, traditional models are being challenged, and new business strategies are emerging to meet evolving consumer needs and market dynamics.