20151208-大华银行-FX_Insights_11页_814kb
报告摘要
FX Insights Summary - 08 December 2015
Core Content
This document provides a detailed analysis of various foreign exchange pairs and their outlooks, supported by key indicators and upcoming data releases. The focus is on short-term and medium-term trends, with an emphasis on support and resistance levels, as well as potential price movements based on economic conditions and central bank policies.
Main FX Pairs and Views
USD/SGD: 1.4055
- Outlook: Neutral
- 24-Hour View: Short-term low in place, rebound likely limited to 1.4155
- 1-3 Weeks View: Consolidation phase, likely to test 1.4155 resistance
- Support Levels: 1.3995, 1.3925
- Resistance Levels: 1.4115, 1.4155
EUR/SGD: 1.5225
- Outlook: Bullish
- 24-Hour View: Sideways movement, likely between 1.5150 and 1.5265
- 1-3 Weeks View: Another leg higher to 1.5365 expected, but overbought conditions may slow gains
- Support Levels: 1.5150, 1.5100
- Resistance Levels: 1.5300, 1.5365
GBP/SGD: 2.1145
- Outlook: Bearish
- 24-Hour View: Range trading with upward bias, likely between 2.1050 and 2.1180
- 1-3 Weeks View: Early stages of bottoming process, confirmation of a low at 2.1220
- Support Levels: 2.1050, 2.0970
- Resistance Levels: 2.1180, 2.1220
AUD/SGD: 1.0215
- Outlook: Neutral
- 24-Hour View: Corrective pull-back could extend to 0.7200
- 1-3 Weeks View: Consolidation phase, likely between 1.0150 and 1.0350
- Support Levels: 1.0215, 1.0150
- Resistance Levels: 1.0295, 1.0350
JPY/SGD: 1.1395
- Outlook: Bearish
- 24-Hour View: Corrective rebound, likely to test 1.1420 resistance
- 1-3 Weeks View: Take profit on dips towards 1.1300/05
- Support Levels: 1.1360, 1.1305
- Resistance Levels: 1.1420, 1.1470
USD/MYR: 4.2580
- Outlook: Neutral
- 24-Hour View: Short-term low in place, rebound to 4.3100 possible
- 1-3 Weeks View: Consolidation phase, support at 4.2250
- Support Levels: 4.2250, 4.1820
- Resistance Levels: 4.2815, 4.3110
USD/THB: 35.87
- Outlook: Neutral
- 24-Hour View: Consolidation phase, expected to trade between 35.64 and 36.00
- 1-3 Weeks View: No change to neutral view
- Support Levels: 35.73, 35.64
- Resistance Levels: 35.92, 36.00
USD/CNH: 6.4765
- Outlook: Bullish
- 24-Hour View: Rally could extend to 6.4950, stop-loss at 6.4580
- 1-3 Weeks View: Target a move to 6.4950
- Support Levels: 6.4680, 6.4580
- Resistance Levels: 6.4880, 6.4950
EUR/USD: 1.0835
- Outlook: Bullish
- 24-Hour View: Weak undertone, likely to dip to 1.0795/00
- 1-3 Weeks View: Rally could extend to 1.0980, but likely limited
- Support Levels: 1.0760
- Resistance Levels: 1.1020, 1.1095
GBP/USD: 1.5055
- Outlook: Bullish
- 24-Hour View: Rebound to 1.5080 expected, capped at 1.5115
- 1-3 Weeks View: Break below 1.5030 would signal a short-term top
- Support Levels: 1.5030, 1.4980
- Resistance Levels: 1.5115, 1.5165
AUD/USD: 0.7265
- Outlook: Neutral
- 24-Hour View: Weakness could extend to 0.7230
- 1-3 Weeks View: Consolidation phase, likely between 0.7200 and 0.7385
- Support Levels: 0.7230, 0.7200
- Resistance Levels: 0.7295, 0.7385
NZD/USD: 0.6640
- Outlook: Neutral
- 24-Hour View: Likely short-term top, pull-back to 0.6580 expected
- 1-3 Weeks View: Consolidation phase, support at 0.6600
- Support Levels: 0.6600, 0.6580
- Resistance Levels: 0.6670, 0.6720
Key Indicators and Data Releases
USD/SGD
- S$NEER: Trading slightly above the midpoint, expected to range between midpoint and 0.5% above
- Next MAS Meeting: April 2016
EUR/SGD
- GDP QoQ: +0.3% in 3Q15
- CPI YoY: -0.8% in Oct
- Next MAS Meeting: April 2016
GBP/SGD
- GDP QoQ: +0.5% in 3Q15
- CPI YoY: -0.1% in Sep, -0.1% in Oct
- Next MAS Meeting: April 2016
AUD/SGD
- GDP QoQ: +0.9% in 3Q15
- CPI YoY: -0.5% in Oct
- Next MAS Meeting: April 2016
JPY/SGD
- GDP QoQ: +0.3% in 3Q15
- CPI YoY: -0.8% in Oct
- Next MAS Meeting: April 2016
USD/MYR
- Foreign Reserves: Rose to US$94.6bn in end-November
- Next BNM Meeting: 21-Jan-16
USD/THB
- Foreign Reserves: Expected to trade between 35.64 and 36.00
- Next BOT Meeting: 16-Dec-15
USD/CNH
- Foreign Reserves: Fell to US$3.438tn in November
- Next PBOC Meeting: Not specified
UOB FX Forecast for 2016
| Currency Pair | 1Q16 | 2Q16 | 3Q16 | 4Q16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.14 |
| GBP/USD | 1.50 | 1.51 | 1.54 | 1.56 |
| AUD/USD | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| NZD/USD | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| USD/JPY | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 |
| USD/SGD | 1.45 | 1.46 | 1.44 | 1.42 |
| USD/MYR | 4.18 | 4.15 | 4.06 | 3.96 |
| USD/THB | 36.2 | 36.5 | 36.8 | 37.0 |
| USD/CNY | 6.45 | 6.51 | 6.47 | 6.45 |
UOB Rates Forecast for 2016
| Country | 1Q16 | 2Q16 | 3Q16 | 4Q16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| UK | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.75% | 1.00% |
| AU | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.25% |
| NZ | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% |
| JP | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| SG | 1.20% | 1.25% | 1.35% | 1.50% |
| MY | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.25% |
| TH | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.50% |
| CN | 4.10% | 3.85% | 3.85% | 3.85% |
| US | 0.75% | 1.00% | 1.25% | 1.50% |
Performance Overview (07-Dec-15)
| FX Pair | Open | High | Low | Close | 1-day | 1-week | 1-month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/SGD | 1.3975 | 1.4064 | 1.3975 | 1.4064 | +0.56% | -0.31% | -1.10% | +6.06% |
| EUR/SGD | 1.5207 | 1.5258 | 1.5156 | 1.5234 | +0.18% | +2.26% | -0.37% | -4.98% |
| GBP/SGD | 2.1110 | 2.1201 | 2.1086 | 2.1163 | +0.25% | -0.31% | -1.57% | +2.53% |
| AUD/SGD | 1.0249 | 1.0286 | 1.0185 | 1.0215 | -0.37% | +0.24% | +1.95% | -5.64% |
| JPY/SGD | 1.1340 | 1.1404 | 1.1330 | 1.1396 | +0.48% | -0.50% | -1.29% | +2.92% |
| USD/MYR | 4.2200 | 4.2200 | 4.2000 | 4.2120 | -0.28% | -1.03% | -3.56% | +20.5% |
| USD/THB | 35.76 | 35.92 | 35.74 | 35.86 | +0.36% | +0.19% | -0.11% | +8.99% |
| USD/CNH | 6.4468 | 6.4741 | 6.4425 | 6.4716 | +0.42% | +0.72% | +1.27% | +4.09% |
| EUR/USD | 1.0858 | 1.0887 | 1.0794 | 1.0835 | -0.45% | +2.57% | +0.80% | -10.4% |
| GBP/USD | 1.5110 | 1.5114 | 1.5045 | 1.5056 | -0.41% | -0.00% | -0.38% | -3.33% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7359 | 0.7359 | 0.7256 | 0.7267 | -0.91% | +0.52% | +3.07% | -10.9% |
| NZD/USD | 0.6735 | 0.6744 | 0.6630 | 0.6644 | -1.55% | +0.89% | +1.71% | -14.7% |
| USD/JPY | 123.20 | 123.47 | 123.12 | 123.37 | +0.17% | +0.23% | +0.16% | +3.08% |
Key Economic Indicators
| Indicator | 2Q15 | 3Q15 | 4Q15 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP QoQ | +3.9% | +2.1% | - | |
| PCE Price Index YoY | +0.2% | +0.2% | - | |
| Core PCE Price Index YoY | +1.3% | +1.3% | - | |
| Unemployment | 5.0% | 5.0% | - | |
| Nonfarm Payroll | +298k | +211k | - | |
| Retail Sales | +0.0% | +0.1% | - | |
| Retail Sales ex Autos | -0.4% | +0.2% | - | |
| Durable Goods | -0.8% | +3.0% | - | |
| Durable Goods ex Autos | -0.1% | +0.5% | - | |
| Housing Starts | +1191k | +1060k | - | |
| Case Shiller 20-City Index | +5.1% | +5.5% | - | |
| UoM Consumer Confidence | 90.0 | 93.1 | - | |
| UOB FX Forecast | - | - | - |
Key Data Releases
- NFIB Small Business Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday
- November Foreign Reserves for SGD
- November Trade Data for France
- November Eco Watchers' Surveys for Japan
- November Industrial Production for UK and France
- November CPI for various countries
- November GDP for various countries
Summary of Views
- USD/SGD: Neutral, with a short-term low in place
- EUR/SGD: Bullish, with a potential move to 1.5365
- GBP/SGD: Bearish, with a possible test of 2.0970
- AUD/SGD: Neutral, likely to consolidate between 1.0150 and 1.0350
- JPY/SGD: Bearish, with support at 1.1300
- USD/MYR: Neutral, with consolidation expected
- USD/THB: Neutral, with range trading expected
- USD/CNH: Bullish, with a target of 6.4950
- EUR/USD: Bullish, with a potential rally to 1.0980
- GBP/USD: Bullish, with resistance at 1.5240
- AUD/USD: Neutral, with consolidation likely
- NZD/USD: Neutral, with a pull-back to 0.6580 expected
Disclaimer
This analysis is based on public information and is subject to change. UOB Group may have positions in the currencies and financial products mentioned and does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Readers should determine the risks and merits of any transaction before entering into it.
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