2001年-世界发展银行全球_The_Macroeconomic_Impact_of_Bank_Capital_Requirements_in_Emerging_Economies___Past_Evidence_to_Assess_the_Future_34页_1mb

The Macroeconomic Impact of Bank Capital Requirements in Emerging Economies: Past Evidence to Assess the Future

Core Content

This working paper investigates the macroeconomic impact of bank capital requirements in emerging economies, building on previous studies focused on G-10 countries. The authors, Maria Concetta Chiuri, Giovanni Ferri, and Giovanni Majnoni, analyze the effects of implementing Basel-style capital adequacy requirements (CARs) on bank lending behavior in emerging markets. The study emphasizes the potential for these requirements to reduce the supply of credit, especially in countries with weaker financial systems.

Main Findings

• Negative Impact on Credit Supply: The enforcement of capital adequacy requirements significantly curtails bank credit supply, particularly for less well-capitalized banks.
• Not Limited to Crisis Countries: The adverse effect of higher capital requirements is observed even in countries not experiencing financial crises.
• Foreign-Owned Banks are Less Affected: The negative impact of capital requirements is somewhat smaller for foreign-owned banks, indicating that foreign bank entry could help shield the domestic sector from credit contraction.

Key Points

• Purpose of the Study: To assess whether the institutional differences in emerging economies affect their response to capital requirements compared to G-10 countries.
• Methodology: The paper uses an econometric approach based on the framework developed by Peek and Rosengren (1995), analyzing data on individual banks in emerging economies.
• Sources of Capital Shocks: Capital shocks can arise from either external events (e.g., loan losses) or regulatory changes (e.g., increased capital ratios).
• Theoretical Considerations: The paper suggests that capital requirements should ideally be pro-cyclical, adjusting with economic conditions, to avoid adverse macroeconomic effects.
• Relevance to Policy: The findings have implications for the Basel Committee's 1999 proposal, highlighting the need for careful phasing in of higher capital requirements in emerging economies to prevent credit supply retrenchment.

Testing Scenarios

1. Crisis Case: A negative shock to total capital leads to a reduction in deposits and loans, depending on whether the bank is capital constrained or not.
2. Regulatory Restriction Case: An increase in capital ratio leads to a reduction in deposits and loans for capital-constrained banks, but not for unconstrained ones.
3. Crisis with Regulatory Restriction: When both a financial crisis and regulatory tightening occur, the combined effect is more pronounced, especially for capital-constrained banks.

Policy Implications

• Caution in Enforcement: Emerging economies should exercise caution in enforcing higher capital requirements, as the effects can be more severe than in developed economies.
• Phasing In Procedures: Adequate phasing in procedures are essential to mitigate the risk of credit supply contraction.
• Importance of Institutional Preconditions: Risk-based capital requirements can only be effective if supported by strong institutional frameworks, including sound accounting standards, proper capital definitions, and effective provisioning practices.
• Foreign Ownership as a Mitigating Factor: Opening up the banking sector to foreign investors may help reduce the negative impact of capital requirements on credit supply.

Conclusion

The study concludes that higher capital requirements in emerging economies can lead to a general and negative impact on bank lending, regardless of whether the country is in a crisis or not. It underscores the importance of careful policy design and implementation, especially in economies where alternative financing channels are underdeveloped. The paper also highlights the potential benefits of foreign bank presence in reducing the adverse effects of capital requirements on the domestic credit market.