2025-06-16-高盛-朝日集团（2502）_朝日集团（2502.T）_欧洲业务战略简报_市场访问_专注于高端化和啤酒相邻品类扩张_8页_265kb

Asahi Group (2502.T) Europe Business Strategy Summary

Core Content

Asahi Group's Europe business strategy briefing and market visits in Poland and Italy highlighted the company's focus on premiumization and expansion of the Beer Adjacent Category (BAC). The company is aiming to improve its profit margins and increase its market presence through strategic initiatives in both regions.

Main Points

Sales Performance

• Sales volumes in Europe were flat YoY in FY12/24, but global brands showed growth:
  • Asahi Super Dry increased by +13% YoY
  • Peroni Nastro Azzurro increased by +2% YoY
• Non-alcoholic beer (NAB) grew by +14% YoY, outperforming the overall volume trend.
• Poland is the second-largest market in Europe and has a profit margin above the European average, indicating strong potential for profit generation.

Margin Improvement

• Asahi aims to increase its European business profit margin to nearly 20% in the coming years.
• Efficiency gains are expected to reach €100 mn by FY12/27 and €150 mn by FY12/29.
• €10 mn in efficiency gains were already achieved in 1Q FY12/25, with an expectation of reaching €50 mn by the end of the fiscal year.
• Digitalization is expected to further reduce personnel costs and improve efficiency.

On-Premise Sales

• On-premise sales are expected to continue a long-term decline, but Asahi is working to strengthen relationships with pub owners.
• In 2024, on-premise sales accounted for:
  • 30% in the Czech Republic
  • 6% in Poland
  • 45% in the UK
  • 40% in Italy

Market Insights

Poland

• Lager market share is declining, but NAB and flavored beers are seeing growth.
• Premium segment weighting increased from 22.8% in 2023 to 25.1% in 2024 and 26.9% YTD in 2025.
• Gross margin has returned to FY12/19 levels due to price hikes.

Italy

• Per-capita beer consumption is 37 liters in 2023, below the EU average of 68 liters.
• However, consumption has increased since the pandemic, and the beer market is growing.
• Asahi has a 40% share in mainstream beer but only 13% in super-premium/premium.
• Peroni Nastro Azzurro, Kozel, and Raffo are being expanded to increase premium segment weighting.
• On-trade sales account for 41% of volume, 44% of sales, and 49% of gross profits, showing strong profitability from on-trade.

Factory and Retail Visit Observations

• Factory utilization rates are high during peak seasons.
• High-performance dealcoholization equipment is used for NAB production.
• In retail visits, Asahi is focusing on NAB and premium products, with tailored promotions and shelf space management.
• Competitors are offering discounts, but Asahi is leading in premiumization.

Key Differences Between Poland and Italy

• Poland: High market share and per-capita consumption, with growth in NAB and flavored beers.
• Italy: Beer market is in growth phase, with Asahi focusing on expanding beer and increasing premium product sales.

North American Market

• The acquisition of Octopi has laid the foundation for long-term growth in the North American market.
• Asahi Super Dry is now produced in the US, with a flexible production system that supports short lead times.
• There is potential for BAC product expansion in the future.

Investment Thesis

Asahi Group is a major Japanese beer manufacturer with a strong domestic and international presence. It has a 54% overseas sales ratio (FY12/24), with key growth drivers including:

• Price hikes in response to cost inflation
• Peak-out of raw material costs
• Market share growth in domestic beer due to tax reforms
• Premiumization in Europe and Oceania, leading to higher ASP
• Top-line growth in the North American market

The company is expected to deliver above-average profit growth compared to peers in the sector. Its 3-year business profit CAGR and FY12/25 profit growth are above the average for Goldman Sachs' coverage. The stock is Buy rated with a 12-month target price of ¥2,550, implying a 35.5% upside from the current price of ¥1,882.

Risk Factors

• Lower sales volume
• Lower ASP
• Higher raw material costs
• Large investments with low returns

Methodology and Disclosures

• Price Target: Based on EV/NOPAT of 18X (1 SD above the sector average of 15.5X).
• M&A Rank: 3 (low probability of acquisition), so no M&A component is included in the price target.
• GS Factor Profile: Compares key attributes like Growth, Financial Returns, and Multiple to the market and sector peers.
• Quantum: Goldman Sachs' proprietary database used for financial analysis.

Regulatory Disclosures

• The report is subject to various regulatory requirements across jurisdictions.
• Goldman Sachs may have investment banking relationships with Asahi Group, and disclosure of interests is provided.
• Conflicts of interest are managed in accordance with Goldman Sachs' policies.

Distribution and Ratings

• Ratings distribution for Goldman Sachs' global coverage includes Buy, Hold, Sell.
• Buy rating is assigned based on total return potential relative to the coverage universe.
• Not Rated (NR), Rating Suspended (RS), Coverage Suspended (CS), Not Covered (NC), and Early-Stage Biotech (ES) are defined for different scenarios.

Summary

Asahi Group is actively pursuing premiumization and BAC expansion in Europe, with a focus on profit margin improvement and efficiency gains. The company has a strong brand foundation in key markets like the Czech Republic, Poland, and Romania. In Italy, the beer market is growing, and Asahi is leveraging this with strategic premium product expansion. In Poland, NAB and flavored beers are driving growth, while the company maintains a high market share and profitability. The Buy rating reflects positive growth expectations and undervaluation based on P/E ratio.