2026年全球经济展望报告_稳健但脆弱的全球增长态势_27页_5mb

2026 Global Economic Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2026 Global Economic Outlook from ACCA presents a cautiously optimistic view of the global economy, noting that growth is expected to remain steady but is underpinned by significant risks and uncertainties. The report highlights the role of ACCA in promoting professional accountancy standards and supporting a diverse global community of over 252,500 members and 526,000 future members.

Main Views and Key Information

Global Economic Prospects

• Growth Outlook: Global growth is expected to remain at around 3%, with the US leading among advanced economies, followed by the euro area and the UK.
• Resilience in 2025: Despite major trade disruptions and heightened policy uncertainty, the global economy proved more resilient than expected in 2025.
• Supporting Factors: Easing monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, the AI boom, and a reduction in trade policy uncertainty are key drivers of growth.
• Risks: Elevated geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and the potential for a financial market correction or AI bubble are significant concerns.

Country-Specific Analysis

• United States:

  • Expected to grow at 2.2% in 2026.
  • Fiscal stimulus (e.g., OBBBA) and AI investment support growth.
  • Risks include higher inflation from tariffs, a potential tech stock correction, and a weakening labor market.

• Euro Area:

  • Projected growth of around 1.3% in 2026.
  • Consumer spending and past monetary easing support growth.
  • Risks include US trade policy, euro appreciation, and political uncertainty in France and Germany.

• United Kingdom:

  • Expected to grow at 1.1% in 2026.
  • Weak economic performance and labor market conditions are expected to persist.
  • Fiscal policy is a drag, while inflation reduction supports growth.

• China:

  • Projected to grow at 4.5% in 2026.
  • Exports remain strong, but domestic challenges like the real estate market and overcapacity continue.
  • Risks include housing market instability and global trade developments.

• India:

  • Expected to grow at 6.5% in 2026.
  • Resilient to US tariffs, with strong consumer spending and sectoral growth.
  • Risks include domestic food price volatility.

Key Trends

1. Artificial Intelligence (AI):

   • The AI boom continues to support global growth and financial conditions.
   • If AI investment boosts productivity, it could stabilize financial markets.
   • However, a backlash against AI could pose a risk, similar to the resistance against globalization.

2. Advanced Economy Bond Markets:

   • Rising government bond yields could negatively impact financial markets and the global economy.
   • Concerns over public finances, Fed independence, and policy tightening in Japan are key risks.

3. Global Trade:

   • Trade tensions and policy changes in 2025 continue to affect global trade relations.
   • The impact of US import tariffs on China and other countries may lead to further restrictive trade measures.

Major Risk Events

• US Midterm Elections (November 2026):

  • Could constrain President Trump's policy flexibility.
  • May lead to shifts in the political landscape, affecting trade and fiscal policies.

• Geopolitical Risks:

  • Continued conflict in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and superpower rivalry.
  • The January capture of Maduro and threats to Greenland reinforce these risks.

• Financial Market Vulnerabilities:

  • Richly priced markets are susceptible to shocks, such as a correction in equity markets or a rise in bond yields.
  • The non-bank financial sector's growth could increase vulnerability.

Business Leaders' Perspectives

• Wu Chen: Highlights a two-speed global economy, with AI driving growth in the US and China, while other regions face affordability and structural issues.
• Mike Fowler: Concerned about the lack of a pro-business agenda in the UK, suggesting downside risks outweigh inflation concerns.
• Ebrima Sawaneh: Cautiously optimistic about Africa's prospects, emphasizing the importance of resilience, decarbonisation readiness, and digital reliability.

ACCA's Call to Action

• Bridging the Skills Gap:

  • ACCA advocates for inclusive educational and vocational policies to widen access to the accounting profession.
  • Encourages the development of sustainability and technology skills to meet evolving market demands.

• Driving Sustainable Business:

  • ACCA calls for policies and regulations that promote ethical, sustainable, and prosperous organizations.
  • Emphasizes the importance of international standards and harmonization across jurisdictions to support global trade and accountability.

Conclusion

While the global economy is expected to expand at a steady pace in 2026, the outlook remains fragile due to heightened uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and potential financial market corrections. The report underscores the need for inclusive and sustainable policies to support economic growth and resilience.