20260227-招银国际-Inline_4QFY26_results_strong_AgentForce_momentum_to_support_2HFY27_reacceleration_6页_663kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Salesforce (CRM US) # Inline 4QFY26 results; strong AgentForce momentum to support 2HFY27 reacceleration Salesforce reported 4QFY26 results: total revenue was up by $12\%$ YoY to US$11.2bn, and non-GAAP operating income grew by \(16\%$ YoY to US\)3.8bn, both in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates. 4QFY26 cRPO grew by $13\%$ YoY in constant currency (CC) to US\)35.1bn, including 4ppts Informatica contribution, also largely in line with the company guidance. Strong momentum of AgentForce and Data 360 was partially offset by the softness in marketing, commerce, and Tableau businesses. Management guided total revenue to increase by $10 - 11\%$ YoY to US\)45.80-46.20bn in FY27E, in line with the consensus estimate. Management is upbeat that organic revenue growth will reaccelerate in 2HFY27E, and update its FY30E revenue target of US$63bn (FY26-30E CAGR of $11\%$), supported by the strong AgentForce business. We slightly trim our FY27-28 non-GAAP operating income forecast by $2 - 4\%$ as the company steps up investment in infrastructure and sales capacity. We lower our target price to US$320.0 based on 15x FY27E EV/EBITDA (previous: US$392.0 based on 21x FY26E EV/EBITDA), given that SaaS sector valuation declined due to investor concerns on heightening competitive pressure from LLM providers. That said, we remain upbeat on AgentForce momentum and expect 2HFY27E reacceleration to support sentiment and valuation recovery. Maintain BUY. Expect organic revenue growth to reaccelerate in 2HFY27E. cRPO was up by $13\%$ YoY in CC, and subscription revenue grew by $11\%$ YoY to US$10.7bn in CC in 4QFY26 (both incl. 4ppts Informatica contribution), primarily driven by the solid growth of AgentForce and Data 360, but partially offset by the weakness in marketing, commerce, and Tableau businesses. The strong AgentForce momentum led Net New AOV growth to accelerate and outpace AOV growth in 2HFY26, further boosting management's confidence in the reacceleration of organic revenue growth in 2HFY27E. Management guided 1QFY27E total revenue growth of \(10 - 11\%$ in CC, including c.4ppts Informatica contribution, which implies $6 - 7\%$ organic revenue growth. ■ Strong AgentForce momentum. AgentForce and Data 360 ARR grew by over $200\%$ YoY to US$2.9bn in 4QFY26, including US$1.1bn Informatica Cloud ARR. AgentForce ARR was up by $169\%$ YoY to US\)800mn in 4QFY26, underpinned by the strong execution and solid growth of AgentForce consumption: 1) the company closed 29,000 AgentForce deals since launch, up by $50\%$ QoQ; 2) the company processed over 19tn tokens (up by 5x YoY) and 2.4bn Agentic Work Units (up by $57\%$ QoQ) across AgentForce and Slack since launch; 3) solid consumption drove upsell opportunities, with over $60\%$ of Agentforce and Data 360's 4QFY26 bookings coming from existing customer expansion. Expect steady margin expansion in FY27E. Non-GAAP OPM rose by 1.1ppt YoY to $34.2\%$ in 4QFY26. Management guided FY27E non-GAAP OPM to expand by 0.2ppt YoY to $34.3\%$ , supported by Al-enhanced efficiency, but partially offset by investment in infra and sales capacity. Earnings Summary (YE 31 Jan) FY25A FY26A FY27E FY28E FY29E Revenue (US$ mn) 37,895 41,525 46,076 50,985 56,610 Adjusted net profit (US$ mn) 9,930.0 11,969.0 12,399.4 13,963.7 15,940.6 EPS (Adjusted) (US$) 10.20 12.52 13.15 14.81 16.90 Consensus EPS (US$) 10.20 12.52 13.18 15.01 17.72 P/E (x) 28.8 23.6 24.7 21.6 18.2 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIG estimates # BUY (Maintain) Target Price US$320.00 (Previous TP US$392.00) Up/Downside 60.4% Current Price US$199.47 # Software & IT Services Saiyi HE, CFA (852) 3916 1739 hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFA luwentao@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA (852) 3850 5226 franktao@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (US$ mn) 187,102.9 Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn) 2,270.2 52w High/Low (US$) 297.85/178.16 Total Issued Shares (mn) 938.0 Source:FactSet Shareholding Structure The Vanguard Group 8.7% BlackRock 7.6% Source: Company data Share Performance 12-mth Price Performance Absolute Relative 1-mth -12.7% -10.2% 3-mth -12.6% -12.3% 6-mth -20.3% -25.6% Source:FactSet Source:FactSet # Business forecasts update and valuation Figure 1: Salesforce: forecast revision US$ bn Current Previous Change (%) FY27E FY28E FY29E FY27E FY28E FY29E FY27E FY28E FY29E Revenue 46.1 51.0 56.6 46.3 50.7 NA -0.4% 0.5% NA Gross Profit 36.0 40.1 44.7 36.3 40.1 NA -0.8% 0.0% NA Non-GAAP OP 15.8 17.8 20.3 16.2 18.5 NA -2.4% -3.9% NA Non-GAAP NP 12.4 14.0 15.9 13.0 14.8 NA -4.9% -5.8% NA Non-GAAP EPS (US$) 13.1 14.8 16.9 13.6 15.5 NA -3.3% -4.2% NA Gross Margin 78.2% 78.6% 79.0% 78.5% 79.0% NA -0.3 ppt -0.4 ppt NA Non-GAAP OPM 34.3% 34.9% 35.9% 35.0% 36.5% NA -0.7 ppt -1.6 ppt NA Non-GAAP NPM 26.9% 27.4% 28.2% 28.2% 29.2% NA -1.3 ppt -1.8 ppt NA Source: CMBIGM estimates Figure 2: CMBIGM estimates vs consensus US$ bn CMBIG Consensus Diff (%) FY27E FY28E FY29E FY27E FY28E FY29E FY27E FY28E FY29E Revenue 46.1 51.0 56.6 46.0 50.4 55.3 0.1% 1.2% 2.4% Non-GAAP OP 15.8 17.8 20.3 16.1 18.2 20.8 -1.6% -2.1% -2.3% Non-GAAP NP 12.4 14.0 15.9 12.6 14.3 16.6 -1.4% -2.4% -4.2% Non-GAAP EPS (US$) 13.1 14.8 16.9 13.2 15.0 17.7 -0.2% -1.3% -4.6% Non-GAAP OPM 34.3% 34.9% 35.9% 34.9% 36.1% 37.6% -0.6 ppt -1.2 ppt -1.7 ppt Non-GAAP NPM 26.9% 27.4% 28.2% 27.3% 28.4% 30.1% -0.4 ppt -1.0 ppt -2.0 ppt Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates # Valuation We value Salesforce at US\(320.0 per share based on 15x FY27E EV/EBITDA. Our target EV/EBITDA is at a discount to the sector average (17x), given Salesforce earnings growth has entered a more mature stage. Figure 3: Salesforce: target valuation EV/EBITDA Valuation (US$mn) FY27E Adjusted EBITDA 20,223 Target FY27E EV/EBITDA (x) 15 Target EV 303,347 Net Cash (3,112) Target equity valuation 300,235 Valuation per share (USD) 320.0 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Figure 4: SaaS: valuation comparison Companies Ticker Price (Local) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Rev CAGR FWD 3FY +1FY +2FY +3FY +1FY +2FY +3FY CRM HubSpot HUBS US 245.7 3.1 2.7 2.3 13.0 10.6 9.9 17% Five9 FIVN US 17.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 4.9 4.2 3.7 10% ITSM ServiceNow NOW US 104.2 6.3 5.4 4.5 17.3 14.4 12.2 19% Atlassian TEAM US 73.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 10.2 8.7 7.3 19% Security CrowdStrike CRWD US 363.3 18.3 15.0 12.4 68.2 52.1 40.1 22% Okta OKTA US 73.0 3.9 3.6 3.3 13.8 13.0 11.4 10% ERP SAP SAP US 198.3 6.0 5.4 4.8 15.6 13.5 11.6 11% Oracle ORCL US 147.9 7.8 6.0 4.1 14.4 10.7 7.4 31% Collaboration Twilio TWLO US 118.3 2.9 2.7 2.5 15.5 13.2 12.2 9% Ring Central RNG US 34.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 5.7 5.5 5.1 9% Zoom ZM US 85.4 3.7 3.6 3.4 8.8 8.6 8.0 4% Average 5.2 4.5 3.8 17.0 14.0 11.7 Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM Note: data are as of 25 Feb 2026 Financial Summary INCOME STATEMENT 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027E 2028E 2029E YE 31 Jan (US$ mn) Revenue 34,857 37,895 41,525 46,076 50,985 56,610 Cost of goods sold (8,541) (8,643) (9,270) (10,040) (10,899) (11,884) Gross profit 26,316 29,252 32,255 36,036 40,086 44,727 Operating expenses (21,305) (21,586) (23,338) (26,263) (28,858) (31,419) Selling expense (12,877) (13,257) (14,345) (16,127) (17,743) (19,531) Admin expense (3,522) (2,836) (3,000) (3,317) (3,569) (3,680) R&D expense (4,906) (5,493) (5,993) (6,819) (7,546) (8,209) Operating profit 5,011 7,666 8,917 9,773 11,229 13,308 Other expense 216 354 172 0 0 0 Other gains/(losses) (277) (121) 1,017 (230) (255) (283) Pre-tax profit 4,950 7,899 10,106 9,542 10,974 13,025 Income tax (814) (1,241) (2,063) (1,975) (2,304) (2,735) After tax profit 4,136 6,658 8,043 7,567 8,669 10,290 Net profit 4,136 6,658 8,043 7,567 8,669 10,290 Adjusted net profit 8,087 9,930 11,969 12,399 13,964 15,941 BALANCE SHEET 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027E 2028E 2029E YE 31 Jan (US$ mn) Current assets 29,074 29,727 28,222 29,977 38,151 48,239 Cash & equivalents 8,472 8,848 7,327 5,473 9,781 15,512 Account receivables 11,414 11,945 14,339 15,910 17,606 19,548 Prepayment 1,561 1,779 2,075 2,302 2,471 2,662 Financial assets at FVTPL 5,722 5,184 2,238 2,238 2,238 2,238 Other current assets 1,905 1,971 2,243 4,053 6,055 8,279 Non-current assets 70,749 73,201 84,083 81,952 80,038 79,082 PP&E 3,689 3,236 3,120 2,804 2,388 1,957 Deferred income tax 3,433 4,770 3,628 3,628 3,628 3,628 Investment in JVs & assoc 4,848 4,852 7,591 7,591 7,591 7,591 Intangibles 5,278 4,428 6,815 5,000 3,502 2,977 Goodwill 48,620 51,283 57,941 57,941 57,941 57,941 Other non-current assets 4,881 4,632 4,988 4,988 4,988 4,988 Total assets 99,823 102,928 112,305 111,929 118,189 127,321 Current liabilities 26,631 27,980 37,118 37,132 41,159 45,704 Account payables 6,111 6,658 8,253 8,939 9,509 10,057 Other current liabilities 999 0 4,000 0 0 0 Lease liabilities 518 579 548 548 548 548 Contract liabilities 19,003 20,743 24,317 27,646 31,101 35,098 Non-current liabilities 13,546 13,775 16,045 16,045 16,045 16,045 Long-term borrowings 8,427 8,433 10,439 10,439 10,439 10,439 Other non-current liabilities 5,119 5,342 5,606 5,606 5,606 5,606 Total liabilities 40,177 41,755 53,163 53,177 57,204 61,749 Share capital 1 1 1 1 1 1 Capital surplus 59,841 64,576 68,835 72,982 77,316 81,844 Retained earnings 11,721 16,369 22,221 29,650 38,319 48,609 Other reserves (11,917) (19,773) (31,915) (43,881) (54,651) (64,882) Total shareholders equity 59,646 61,173 59,142 58,752 60,985 65,573 Total equity and liabilities 99,823 102,928 112,305 111,929 118,189 127,321 CASH FLOW 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027E 2028E 2029E YE 31 Jan (US$ mn) Operating Profit before taxation 4,950 7,899 10,106 9,542 10,974 13,025 Depreciation & amortization 3,959 3,477 3,631 4,415 4,431 3,556 Tax paid (814) (1,241) (2,063) (1,975) (2,304) (2,735) Change in working capital (2,573) (1,860) (781) (904) (1,289) (1,420) Others 4,712 4,817 4,103 5,318 5,783 6,138 Net cash from operations 10,234 13,092 14,996 16,396 17,593 18,564 Investing Capital expenditure (736) (658) (594) (691) (765) (849) Acquisition of subsidiaries/ investments (82) (2,734) (9,268) 0 0 0 Net proceeds from disposal of short-term investments (2,250) (2,736) 651 0 0 0 Others 1,741 2,965 621 (1,592) (1,752) (1,752) Net cash from investing (1,327) (3,163) (8,590) (2,284) (2,516) (2,601) Financing Net borrowings (1,182) (1,000) 6,000 (4,000) 0 0 Share repurchases (7,620) (7,829) (12,596) (11,966) (10,770) (10,231) Others 1,325 (600) (1,483) 0 0 0 Net cash from financing (7,477) (9,429) (8,079) (15,966) (10,770) (10,231) Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year 7,016 8,472 8,848 7,327 5,473 9,781 Exchange difference 26 (124) 152 0 0 0 Cash at the end of the year 8,472 8,848 7,327 5,473 9,781 15,512 GROWTH 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027E 2028E 2029E YE 31 Jan Revenue 11.2% 8.7% 9.6% 11.0% 10.7% 11.0% Gross profit 14.5% 11.2% 10.3% 11.7% 11.2% 11.6% Operating profit 386.5% 53.0% 16.3% 9.6% 14.9% 18.5% Net profit 1,888.5% 61.0% 20.8% (5.9%) 14.6% 18.7% Adj. net profit 54.8% 22.8% 20.5% 3.6% 12.6% 14.2% PROFITABILITY 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027E 2028E 2029E YE 31 Jan Gross profit margin 75.5% 77.2% 77.7% 78.2% 78.6% 79.0% Operating margin 14.4% 20.2% 21.5% 21.2% 22.0% 23.5% Adj. net profit margin 23.2% 26.2% 28.8% 26.9% 27.4% 28.2% Return on equity (ROE) 7.0% 11.0% 13.4% 12.8% 14.5% 16.3% GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027E 2028E 2029E YE 31 Jan Current ratio (x) 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 Receivable turnover days 119.5 115.1 126.0 126.0 126.0 126.0 Payable turnover days 261.2 281.2 325.0 325.0 318.5 308.9 VALUATION 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027E 2028E 2029E YE 31 Jan P/E 47.0 28.8 23.6 24.7 21.6 18.2 P/E (diluted) 47.5 29.2 23.7 24.9 21.7 18.3 P/B 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. Note: The calculation of net cash includes financial assets. # Disclosures & Disclaimers # Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. 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