2025-03-16-世界银行-津巴布韦增值税改革的财政和分配影响（英）_31页_1018kb

Summary of "Fiscal and distributional implications of VAT reforms in Zimbabwe"

Abstract

The study analyzes the fiscal and distributional impacts of Zimbabwe's 2024 VAT reforms, which include removing VAT exemptions and zero-rating for basic goods. The reform is expected to increase VAT revenue by 0.88% of GDP. However, it would raise the poverty headcount by 1.4 percentage points and inequality by 0.14 points. A compensatory mechanism is essential to ensure reforms are equitable and poverty-reducing, with full distribution of extra revenue to the poorest households being the most effective option.

VAT Structure and Proposed Changes

• Zimbabwe's VAT system, introduced in the 1990s, is the largest source of tax revenue since 2009.
• The standard rate is 15%, but items like food and medicine were historically zero-rated or exempt.
• The 2024 budget reform shifts most basic goods from zero-rated or exempt status to standard-rated, increasing revenue.

Methodology

• VAT Gap Analysis: Uses Supply and Use Tables (SUT) and data from the 2017 Poverty, Income, Consumption, Expenditure Survey (PICES) to estimate revenue gaps and welfare impacts.
• Distributional Analysis: Employs a partial fiscal incidence framework to assess the impact of VAT reforms across household income deciles, considering informal consumption and VAT exemptions.

Results

• VAT is progressive, with richer households paying a higher effective tax rate.
• The 2024 reforms would increase poverty and inequality if unaccompanied by compensation.
• Removing exemptions and improving VAT collection would raise government revenue but disproportionately affect the poor.
• Compensation scenarios show that redistributing even a fraction of additional revenue can offset negative impacts.

Conclusion

VAT reforms can enhance revenue mobilization but must include compensatory mechanisms to avoid increasing poverty and inequality. Effective redistribution requires adequate targeting systems to reach the poor, highlighting the need for social registries and improved targeting mechanisms.