GTA-地缘政治、冲突和脱钩：2022年西方从俄罗斯撤资的证据（英）-2023.10-30页_1mb

报告摘要

Focuses on foreign corporate responses to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Proposes a replicable, near-time methodology to track corporate divestment in response to geopolitical events.
Applies methodology to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, estimating divestment rates during the first 9 months.

Uses the ORBIS database to identify foreign companies with equity investments in Russia.
Tracked divestment by checking public announcements and transaction details.
Focuses on corroborated exits (full divestment confirmed by evidence).
Conducts robustness checks to ensure reliability, comparing with data from the Kyiv School of Economics.

Divestment Rate: Approximately 8.5% of EU and G7 companies with equity investments divested from Russia by November 2022.
Context: Rates are consistent with previous events (e.g., post-2014 Crimea invasion), despite broader sanctions.
Firm and Country Differences: Higher exit rates from the US and Finland, lower from others (e.g., Japan, EU). Larger, older firms more likely to divest.
Economic Impact: Divesting firms represent small shares of total corporate assets and revenue, suggesting minimal overall footprint reduction.
Policy Influences: Sanctions create push factors (e.g., Russia's exit hurdles) and pull factors (e.g., policies encouraging decoupling); some measures may inadvertently aid evasion or complicate divestment.
Challenges: Divestment is costly and complex; only a subset of firms completed exits, indicating limited immediate decoupling.

Divestment rates are low, implying few Western companies fully exited Russia amid geopolitical rivalries.
Findings inform sanctions design: policies need coherence to avoid contradictions (e.g., by discouraging divestment through regulations); future research should explore sequencing of sanctions and business strategies.

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