国际政治研究所-后疫情时代亚洲地区安全的新常态（英文）-2021.1-146页_2mb

Summary of POST-PANDEMIC ASIA: A NEW NORMAL FOR REGIONAL SECURITY?

Core Content

POST-PANDEMIC ASIA: A NEW NORMAL FOR REGIONAL SECURITY? is a report edited by Axel Berkofsky and Giulia Sciorati, exploring how the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic has reshaped the security landscape in Asia. It argues that while the pandemic initially seemed to reduce traditional security threats, it has instead accelerated existing tensions and introduced new complexities, particularly in the context of the China-U.S. rivalry.

The report outlines several key areas of focus, including economic and security interlinkages, great power competition, multilateral dynamics, nuclear proliferation, maritime security, and the impact of the pandemic on terrorism and the role of the EU in the Indo-Pacific.

Main Views and Key Points

1. Post-Pandemic Security Challenges Remain

• The pandemic has not eliminated traditional security threats but has pushed them into the background.
• In 2020, the Sars-CoV-2 crisis led to increased nationalism and reduced international cooperation.
• The EU experienced a breakdown in solidarity, prioritizing national interests over collective action, which facilitated the spread of the virus.

2. China-U.S. Rivalry Intensifies

• The competition between China and the U.S. is central to the region's security dynamics.
• China has used the pandemic to assert its global leadership, promoting its narrative of a "community of common destiny" and positioning itself as a reliable power.
• The U.S. has criticized China for its handling of the pandemic, including delayed information sharing and control over global health supplies, which has increased tensions.

3. China's Global Influence and Narrative Control

• China has engaged in "Wolf Warrior diplomacy," aggressively defending its actions and dismissing criticism.
• It has attempted to reshape international narratives, such as falsely attributing the virus to the U.S. or suggesting it was not of Chinese origin.
• China's influence over global institutions like the WHO has been criticized for undermining transparency and democratic values.

4. Multilateral Dynamics and the Quad

• The Quad (U.S., Japan, India, Australia) has seen increased cooperation, especially in response to China's actions.
• The Quad was upgraded in 2020, partly due to China's misinformation and economic influence.
• The report suggests the Quad may be a stepping stone towards a broader "Arc of Democracy" but remains limited in its institutionalization and impact compared to China's BRI.

5. Nuclear Proliferation and North Korea

• North Korea's reliance on nuclear weapons is a significant security concern.
• China and the U.S. have contrasting approaches to North Korea: China benefits from its instability, while the U.S. prefers a diplomatic path.
• The pandemic has made diplomatic engagement with North Korea more difficult, further hindering its "diplomatic denuclearisation."

6. Maritime Security and Economic Interests

• Securing sea lanes is crucial for Asia's economic stability.
• The pandemic has heightened the risk of a restructured maritime domain and regional value chains due to ongoing Sino-U.S. competition.
• There is a need for regional cooperation to maintain security, but such cooperation is threatened by escalating tensions.

7. Impact on Terrorism and Radicalization

• The pandemic has influenced terrorist trends, particularly through the rapid digitalization of society and the resurgence of narratives linking epidemics to cultural or religious misbehavior.
• Radicalization has been exacerbated in Muslim-majority regions, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines.
• The report recommends targeted de-radicalization strategies as part of the post-pandemic recovery.

8. EU's Role in the Indo-Pacific

• The EU has been slow to adopt a unified Indo-Pacific strategy, despite national efforts by France, Germany, and the Netherlands.
• The EU's economic dependence on China and its multinational corporations limits its ability to act decisively in security matters.
• The EU-China trade agreement highlights this dependency and suggests limited preparedness to counter China's influence.

Policy Implications

• Asia's security landscape is becoming more complex, with both traditional and non-traditional threats intertwining.
• The China-U.S. rivalry is expected to remain a core challenge, shaping the region's future security and stability.
• There is a need for multifaceted approaches to address new security conglomerates, including economic, military, and diplomatic tools.
• Regional cooperation is essential, especially in securing sea lanes and countering terrorism.
• The EU must reduce external dependency and strengthen internal production to maintain its independence and security role in the Indo-Pacific.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the pandemic has not fundamentally changed the global order, it has acted as a "great accelerator," intensifying existing tensions and revealing the fragility of international cooperation. Asia's security will continue to be a critical component of the global post-pandemic recovery, with the China-U.S. competition at its heart. The EU, despite its ambitions, remains constrained by economic interests and lacks a unified strategy to address these challenges effectively.