2025-06-16-花旗集团-中亚银行（BBCA）_中亚银行（BBCA.JK）_5月持续取得良好业绩——维持买入评级_12页_354kb

Flash | 16 June 2025
Citi Research Analyst: Ferry Wong, CFA

Citi Take Summary:

• Financial Performance: BBCA reported a strong May 2025 net profit (Rp4.95tn, +5.5% YoY). Cumulative performance (5M25) shows an impressive +16% YoY increase in net profit (Rp25.2tn).
• Loan Growth: Loan growth remains robust (11.8%) exceeding management's initial guidance of 6-8% for FY25, although it is noted to be decelerating slightly.
• Net Interest Margin (NIM): NIM remained strong at 6.0% (May 25) and 5.8% (5M25), aligning with management's target range.
• Recommendation: Citi reaffirms a "Buy" recommendation, citing continued positive momentum despite weakening consumption and economic growth concerns. They believe BBCA has strong competitiveness and is well-positioned, potentially less adversely affected by lower interest rates than previously anticipated.
• Target Price: Citi sets a target price of Rp10,700 (approx. US$67.6B market cap), implying a 1-year forward total expected return of 22.4% (including 3.8% dividend yield).

Short-Term View (Upside):

• Results are deemed decent.
• The reduction in credit costs to 20bps is seen as positive.
• Despite weaker purchasing power and economic growth, loan growth momentum and strong NIM support sustained performance.

Valuation:

• Target price derived from a Distributable Dividend Discount Model, factoring a 17% adjusted CET1 ratio, terminal value using Gordon Growth (exit PB), and assumptions for Risk-Free Rate (7.0%), Equity Risk Premium (6%), and Beta (1.0).
• Suggests 1-year forward multiple of ~23x PER / 4.7x PB. Historically trades at ~3.6x PB.
• Target price implies upside of approximately 15.6% from current price (Rp9,025).

Upside/Risks Analysis:

• Upside Risks (Price above Target): Stronger loan growth, improving NIMs, trading gains, higher valuation multiples due to perceived defensiveness (low NPLs).
• Downside Risks (Price below Target): Lower loan growth, deteriorating NIMs, reduced valuation multiples if economic growth improves (leading investors to prefer less defensive stocks).

Analyst Certification & Disclosures:

• The analyst responsible certifies the views accurately reflect his personal view and were prepared independently.
• Citigroup has potential conflicts of interest, may have received compensation/received services from BBCA.
• Citi employees' compensation may be linked to overall firm profitability, including investment banking (which benefits BBCA as a client), rather than specific recommendations.
• Both buy and hold recommendations can be associated with advice to purchase securities.