2015年-世界发展银行全球_Market_Conditions_for_Biomass-to-Energy_Projects_in_Ukraine___Survey_Findings_44页_447kb

Summary of the Biomass-to-Energy Market in Ukraine

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the biomass-to-energy market in Ukraine, focusing on market conditions, key players, and the challenges and opportunities associated with the development of this sector. The survey was conducted in 2015 by GfK Ukraine, involving over 200 local stakeholders, including pellet producers, agricultural companies, and municipal heat suppliers.

Main Viewpoints

Market Potential and Strategic Importance

• Ukraine has significant potential for biomass-to-energy development due to its strong agricultural sector and abundant natural resources.
• Biomass could contribute significantly to renewable energy targets, both nationally and within the EU context.
• The market is expected to grow, with increasing use of biomass in district heating systems and other energy applications.

Market Segments

• Municipal Heat Suppliers: Represent the most active users of biomass, with over 36% currently using biomass boilers and an additional 27% planning to do so.
• Pellet Producers: A key part of the supply chain, processing agricultural and forestry waste into pellets for various end-users.
• Agricultural Companies: Have access to biomass but are not the leading users. Only 11% use their agricultural waste for energy production.
• Industrial Enterprises: Use biomass for in-house energy needs, accounting for a significant portion of pellet sales.
• Electricity Generators: Rare in Ukraine, due to high initial costs, technical risks, and unstable green tariff regulations.

Key Drivers and Barriers

• Drivers:
  • Decreasing biomass prices.
  • Government subsidies for equipment and installation.
  • Stable biomass supply.
  • Subsidized natural gas prices (a significant barrier but also a driver for some).
• Barriers:
  • High loan interest rates.
  • Large initial investment required.
  • Uncertainty in biomass supply and quality.
  • Additional costs for storage and logistics.
  • Lack of government support for biomass projects.

Market Structure and Trends

• The biomass-to-energy market in Ukraine is fragmented, with limited coordination between stakeholders.
• The share of biomass in the total fuel consumption by surveyed entities is currently at 14%, with natural gas being the most commonly used fuel (80%).
• The use of biomass is expected to grow in the short term, with potential for up to 63% of heat suppliers using biomass boilers.
• There is a trend of public and commercial consumers replacing gas boilers with biomass installations, particularly in rural areas.

Key Information

Biomass Utilization

• Wood biomass (including raw wood, sawdust, and pellets) is the dominant type used in Ukraine, accounting for 87% of the total raw material volume.
• Agricultural waste (such as sunflower husk, cereal straw, corn stalks) is used by a minority of pellet producers and heat suppliers.
• Straw-based pellets are becoming more popular, especially among schools and public buildings.

Pellet Production

• Wood pellets are the most common type produced, with 100% of surveyed pellet producers manufacturing them.
• Sunflower husk pellets are produced by 7% of pellet producers.
• Pellet production is mostly profitable, with 61% of producers reporting a profit in 2014 and 22% incurring losses.
• The majority of pellet producers (59%) have a capacity utilization rate below 90%, indicating room for expansion.

Market Outlook

• The total production of pellets in Ukraine reached 1,500 kt in 2014 and is projected to increase fivefold by 2020.
• The use of pellets within Ukraine is expected to rise from 30% in 2014 to 70% in 2015.
• The market is still heavily export-oriented, with 80-90% of pellets exported to EU countries prior to 2012.

Policy and Support

• The report suggests that the development of the biomass-to-energy market would benefit from:
  • Improved coordination between market players.
  • Investment in biomass collection, treatment, and logistics.
  • A more stable and supportive regulatory environment.
  • Introduction of stimulus tariffs for heat not generated from natural gas.
  • Simplified procedures for land allocation for renewable energy installations.

Conclusion

The Ukrainian biomass-to-energy market is in its early stages of development, with municipal heat suppliers being the most active segment. While there are opportunities for growth and sustainability, the market faces significant challenges, including high costs, unstable biomass supply, and limited government support. The report emphasizes the need for strategic investment and policy reforms to support the long-term development of the sector.