2009年-世界发展银行全球_East_Asia_and_Pacific_Update_April_2009___Battling_the_Forces_of_Global_Recession_100页_1mb

East Asia and Pacific Update: April 2009 – Battling the Forces of Global Recession

Core Content

This report analyzes the impact of the global financial crisis on the East Asia and Pacific region, focusing on the region's response and outlook for economic stabilization and recovery. It outlines the challenges faced by both middle-income and low-income countries, the role of China in the region's economic performance, and the broader implications for the global economy.

Main Points

• Global Recession Impact: The global financial crisis hit East Asia and the Pacific region with unusual speed and severity. Middle-income countries were particularly affected due to their integration into global financial markets.
• Economic Decline: Growth in the region slowed sharply in 2008 and is expected to weaken further in 2009. Industrial production and exports fell significantly, leading to factory closures, rising unemployment, and lower real wages.
• China's Role: China remains a key driver of regional growth, with its fiscal and monetary stimulus helping to mitigate the effects of the crisis. However, the country is shifting its growth model toward consumption and services.
• Social Impact: The crisis is expected to slow poverty reduction and increase unemployment, particularly in low-income countries. Social programs and cash transfers have been implemented to support vulnerable populations.
• Regional Variations: Low-income countries are more vulnerable due to their small domestic markets, over-reliance on commodity exports, and limited fiscal space. In contrast, middle-income countries have better resilience due to improved financial systems and external balances.
• Policy Responses: Authorities have adopted expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, including fiscal stimulus packages, to support economic activity and social welfare. However, these measures are likely to only partially offset the contractionary forces.
• Global Outlook: Recovery in developed countries is expected to be delayed until 2010 due to banking crises and weak demand. This will have implications for East Asia's exports and economic performance.

Key Information

Definitions

• Emerging East Asia: Includes Developing East Asia (China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Vietnam) and Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs).
• Middle-income countries: China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand (Mongolia is also considered a middle-income country).
• Low-income countries: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Vietnam.
• ASEAN: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.
• ASEAN+3: ASEAN plus China, Korea, and Japan.
• ASEAN+6: ASEAN plus China, Korea, Japan, Australia, India, and New Zealand.

Policy Responses

• Fiscal Stimulus: Countries in the region have implemented fiscal stimulus packages equivalent to 3.6% of regional GDP, with China's being the largest at about 12% of 2009 GDP.
• Monetary Policy: Central banks have cut policy rates and ensured liquidity through measures like bilateral swaps with China, Korea, and Japan.
• Social Programs: Middle-income countries expanded social safety nets, while low-income countries faced challenges due to limited fiscal space.

Economic Outlook

• Growth Projections: Real GDP growth in developing East Asia is projected to slow to 5.3% in 2009 from 8% in 2008.
• Poverty Impact: 10 million more people are projected to remain in poverty in 2009 compared to 2008 forecasts.
• Long-term Prospects: The region can achieve high economic growth if it can boost domestic demand, enhance competitiveness, and attract foreign investment.

Summary of Regional Performance

Middle-Income Countries

• Resilience: Better prepared for financial shocks due to improved external balances, foreign exchange reserves, and banking supervision.
• Challenges: Still face significant declines in growth and exports, with some countries experiencing a contraction of up to 1.0% in 2009.
• Social Impact: Increased unemployment and reduced remittances affect the poor and near-poor, prompting governments to implement social programs.

Low-Income Countries

• Vulnerability: More susceptible to the crisis due to limited fiscal space and underdeveloped financial markets.
• Response: Implemented food-for-work programs and school-feeding initiatives, supported by foreign donors.
• Export Dependency: Heavily reliant on commodity exports, which have suffered due to declining global prices and demand.

Key Challenges

• Unemployment: Expected to rise sharply, with migrant workers being particularly affected.
• Banking Stress: Increased nonperforming loans and liquidity issues threaten financial stability.
• Global Demand: Continued contraction in global demand and financial instability may prolong the crisis.

Conclusion

The East Asia and Pacific region is experiencing a severe impact from the global recession, with middle-income countries better equipped to handle the crisis than low-income ones. While China remains a bright spot, the region's overall growth is expected to slow, and poverty reduction will be affected. The path to recovery depends on global economic conditions and the effectiveness of regional policy coordination and social support measures.