亚开行-2018年亚洲发展展望报告：科技如何影响工作（英文）-2018.4-349页-3mb

Summary of Asian Development Outlook 2018

Core Content

The Asian Development Outlook 2018 provides an analysis of economic growth and development in Asia and the Pacific, with a focus on how technology impacts employment and the broader economic landscape. It outlines growth prospects, inflation trends, risks to the outlook, and the role of government in addressing the challenges posed by technological change.

Main Views

• Economic Growth Prospects: Developing Asia is expected to maintain strong growth momentum in 2018 and 2019, with an overall forecast of 6.0% and 5.9% respectively. Excluding high-income newly industrialized economies, growth is projected to be 6.5% and 6.4%.

• China's Growth: China's growth is expected to moderate gradually, from 6.9% in 2017 to 6.6% in 2018 and 6.4% in 2019. This is due to financial sector reforms and efforts to ensure more sustainable growth.

• India's Recovery: India is projected to rebound from a temporary slowdown in 2017, with growth expected to reach 7.3% in 2018 and 7.6% in 2019, driven by improved business regulation and tax revenue.

• Southeast Asia: Growth in Southeast Asia is expected to remain steady, with an average of 5.2% in 2018 and 2019. Strong domestic demand and export growth are key drivers, although some economies like Malaysia and Singapore may slow down to their long-term growth rates.

• Central Asia: Growth in Central Asia is forecast to moderate after a strong 2017, from 4.3% to 4.0% in 2018 and then reaccelerate to 4.2% in 2019.

• The Pacific: Growth in the Pacific region is expected to remain lower, at 2.2% in 2018, due to the impact of natural disasters and economic adjustments. However, growth is anticipated to rise to 3.0% in 2019.

Key Information

Inflation Trends

• Inflation in the region is projected to rise to 2.9% in 2018 and 2019, up from 2.3% in 2017, driven by higher oil prices and increased domestic demand.
• In Central Asia, inflation is expected to stabilize at 8.5% in 2018 and 7.9% in 2019, following a reduction in the 2017 rate due to more stable exchange rates in Kazakhstan.

Risks to Growth

• Trade Tensions: Protectionist measures and potential retaliation could undermine trade growth and regional economic confidence.
• Capital Flows: If the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates faster than expected, capital inflows to developing Asia may decline.
• Private Debt: Accumulation of private debt, particularly in household and corporate sectors, poses a medium-term risk to economic stability, though it does not have a persistent positive effect on output growth.

Technology and Employment

• Productivity Boost: New technologies are expected to drive productivity, which in turn supports better-paid jobs and economic growth.
• Job Displacement: While some jobs may be displaced, the overall effect is positive as rising demand and new industries create more jobs.
• Skill Requirements: Technological change alters the skills required in the workforce, potentially disadvantaging less-skilled workers.
• Government Role: Governments need to take proactive steps in skills development, labor regulation, social protection, and income redistribution to ensure workers are equipped for the future.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that while new technologies can displace certain jobs, they also create new opportunities and industries. The key challenge for governments in developing Asia is to support workers through education, training, and policy reforms to ensure they can adapt to the changing labor market and benefit from technological progress.