亚洲开发银行：2023年11月亚洲债券监测报告_60页_3mb

Asia Bond Monitor November 2023

Executive Summary

Emerging East Asian local currency (LCY) bond markets experienced growth amid evolving regional and global economic conditions. Financial markets faced pressures from heightened U.S. interest rates and inflation, leading to currency devaluations and capital outflows. The report highlights policy responses, market trends, and sustainability developments in ASEAN+3 economies.

Regions Covered

• ASEAN members
• People’s Republic of China (PRC)
• Hong Kong, China
• Republic of Korea

Regional Financial Conditions

• September–November 2023 changes
  • Currency movements: Average depreciation vs. USD: 1.0% (simple)
  • Equity markets: Down 4.9% (simple average) globally across East Asia
  • Yield increases: Notable rise in bond yields across most markets
  • Inflation dynamics: Expected easing next year amid temporary pressures

Local Currency Bond Markets

• September 2023 outstanding: $23.5T region-wide, +2.5% q-o-q
• Government bonds: +3.0% q-o-q (62.4% of market)
• Corporate bonds: +1.5% q-o-q
• Sustainability focus: ASEAN+3 sustainable bonds rose 5.2% q-o-q to $734.1B

Policy and Regulatory Developments

• PRC: Reduced reserve requirement ratio, announced additional government bond issuance
• Indonesia: Introduced new monetary operation instruments (SRBI)
• Thailand: Raised policy rates amid fiscal stimulus concerns
• Public finance initiatives: Broader fiscal deficit management across regions

Inflation Effects on Emerging Markets

• Advanced economy inflation significantly impacts emerging markets via asymmetric regime effects
• Short-term responses are stronger during contractionary regimes
• Long-term effects shape debt sustainability frameworks

Monthly Market Overview

People's Republic of China

• Yield curve shifts: Shorter tenors more affected by Fed policy expectations
• Corporate focus: Moderate but continuous issuance growth

Hong Kong, China

• Bond market: Strong corporate segment (50% of market)
• Yield trends: Steeper curve across all tenors

ASEAN+3 Sustainable Bond Market Growth

• Key developments: Robust issuance, green bond dominance, and intra-regional growth
• Currency trends: CNY-denominated and financial sector issuance dominated intra-regional flows

Authorship and Distribution

• Primary authors: Albert Park, Abdul Abiad, Shu Tian, Donghyun Park
• Distribution through AsianBondsOnline platform under CC BY 3.0 IGO license

Disclaimer: Views expressed are those of the authors unless otherwise specified.

This summary captures key sections from the provided text while adhering to the requested Markdown format and exclusivity constraints.