2025-06-11-Jefferies-沙夫茨伯里资本（SHC）_巴黎市场营销与追加销售品牌的目标价上调_9页_725kb

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Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Shaftesbury Capital (SHC LN), focusing on its financial performance, strategic initiatives, and valuation. The key elements include a 25% sale of Covent Garden to NBIM, which has had a positive impact on SHC's financial ratios and liquidity. The report also outlines investment recommendations, price targets, and scenarios for the company's future performance.

Main Points

Company Overview

• Shaftesbury Capital is a London-based real estate company specializing in premium retail, leisure, office, and residential assets, primarily in Covent Garden and surrounding areas.
• The company operates as a tax-free Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) and has a strong focus on the West End of London.

Strategic Sale

• Shaftesbury Capital sold a 25% stake in Covent Garden to NBIM for £570m, which was earnings accretive and NAV neutral.
• The sale improved SHC's financial ratios, including reducing Net Debt/EBITDA from 11x to 7x and lowering LTV to 16%.
• It also doubled liquidity, enhancing the company's financial flexibility.

Valuation and Price Target

• The price target (PT) for SHC has been raised to 171p (155p), based on a DCF valuation, with a "Buy" recommendation.
• The current share price is at a 27% discount to NAV and offers a 2.4% dividend yield.
• The PT assumes a 15% total return over 12 months, including price appreciation and yield.

Financial Metrics

• Net Debt/EBITDA decreased from 11x to 7x after the sale.
• Liquidity increased significantly, with cash rising from £0.6bn to £1.1bn.
• EBITDA is expected to grow from £124.4m in FY2024A to £158.0m in FY2027E.
• Dividend per share (DPS) is projected to increase from 3.5p in FY2024A to 5.1p in FY2027E, with a consistent dividend payout ratio of around 90%.

Key Areas of Focus

• SHC is focusing on managing SHB Villages, including areas like Carnaby Street and Seven Dials, to increase sales densities and rental growth.
• Retail performance is driven by athleisure wear, lifestyle brands, cosmetics, and high-end watches & jewelry.
• Office rents have increased to over £120psf, with modern spaces being more attractive.
• Residential returns are stable with indexed rents, though net yields are around 3%.

Investment Scenarios

• Base Case (171p): Assumes 4% rental growth and stable yields, with recovery in visitor numbers and rents to pre-pandemic levels.
• Upside Scenario (194p): Faster rent roll progression, reduced gentrification timescale, and improved portfolio valuations.
• Downside Scenario (95p): Slower rental growth due to oversupply and reduced tourist traffic, leading to lower rent payments.

Key Information

Dividend and Earnings

• Dividend Yield: Expected to increase from 2.39% in FY2024A to 3.54% in FY2027E.
• Dividend Cover: Maintains a consistent 1.1x ratio, indicating strong ability to cover dividends.
• EPS and DPS Growth: DPS is expected to grow at an average of 12% annually, while EPS growth is projected at 12.8% over the next three years.

Asset Management and Portfolio

• SHC has a property portfolio valued at £5.0bn, with a pro-forma value of £4.4bn post-sale.
• The company has sold £360m at book value, testing NAV and indicating strong asset performance.
• SHC continues to focus on managing and growing its portfolio, particularly in high-value retail and leisure areas.

Sustainability and ESG

• GHG emissions are a key sustainability issue, with SHC aiming to align with EPC requirements and reduce carbon footprint.
• The company is in the A-C green band, with 78% of its portfolio meeting energy efficiency standards.
• Questions are raised regarding EPC retrofitting costs, potential regulatory changes, and cost recovery from tenants.

Analysts and Ratings

• The report is authored by Mike Prew and Sarim Chaudhry, both equity analysts at Jefferies.
• The "Buy" rating is based on a combination of DCF analysis, dividend cover, and growth prospects.
• Jefferies has a conflict of interest due to its involvement in investment banking services for SHC.

Valuation Methodology

• Price targets are based on DCF, EBITDA, and other financial metrics.
• The 3-year DCF cashflow model is used to support the PT of 171p, with a WACC of 9.9% and expected PBT growth of 12.8% annually.

Conclusion

Shaftesbury Capital is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the retail and leisure sectors, supported by strong rental growth and strategic asset management. The company's improved financial ratios and increased liquidity provide a solid foundation for future growth. The "Buy" recommendation is based on a favorable risk/reward ratio and strong dividend cover, with a price target of 171p reflecting a DCF-based valuation. Investors should consider the potential for rental growth and the company's sustainability efforts, while also being aware of the associated risks and conflicts of interest.