【国际能源署IEA】2024年全球电动车展望报告_174页_4mb

Summary of Global EV Outlook 2024

Introduction

The Global EV Outlook 2024 report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) examines the current state and future outlook of electric vehicle (EV) adoption worldwide. It highlights robust growth in EV sales, advancements in affordability, charging infrastructure, and battery technologies, while addressing challenges related to policy support, equity, and grid integration.

Key Findings

Market Growth and Affordability

• EV Sales: Global electric car sales reached nearly 14 million in 2023, accounting for 18% of total car sales. By 2035, EVs could make up over 50% of car sales under stated policies, with the United States targeting 45% of electric car sales by 2030.
• Affordability: Electric cars are becoming more affordable, especially in China. In 2023, over 60% of electric cars sold in China were cheaper than their internal combustion engine (ICE) equivalents. Price parity is expected by 2030 in many markets, driven by falling battery costs and competition.
• Second-Hand Market: Used EV markets are expanding, with over 400,000 used electric cars sold in the United States in 2023. Prices are falling, making EVs competitive with ICE equivalents.

Trends in EV Adoption

• Regional Dominance: China, Europe, and the United States lead EV sales. China surpassed the U.S. in EV stock size in 2023, with ambitious targets for electrification.
• Light-Duty Vehicles: Electric cars and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) are advancing, with battery electric cars (BEVs) dominating due to cost savings and emissions reductions.
• Heavy-Duty Vehicles: Electric buses and trucks are gaining ground, particularly in urban and short-haul applications. Policies like the EU’s CO2 standards and U.S. federal incentives are accelerating adoption.

Charging Infrastructure

• Public Chargers: Global public charging stock increased by 40% in 2023, reaching 4 million points. Deployment is prioritizing fast chargers, with significant growth in China and Europe.
• Home Charging: Access to home charging varies by region, with policies in Europe and the U.S. mandating infrastructure in multi-unit buildings to support mass adoption.
• HDV Charging: Heavy-duty vehicle charging is lagging but growing rapidly, with innovations like electric road systems and battery swapping addressing grid challenges.

Battery Demand and Supply

• Growth: Electric vehicle battery demand jumped over fourfold by 2030 and sevenfold by 2035 compared to 2023, fueled by global electrification.
• Chemistry Shift: Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries are cheaper and more sustainable, with high adoption in China. High-nickel NMC batteries are common in Europe and the U.S., but LFP is expanding due to cost advantages.
• Supply Chains: China dominates battery manufacturing (80%+), exporting globally. Europe and the U.S. are increasing domestic capacity, reducing reliance on imports.

Emissions and Environmental Impact

• GHG Emissions: EVs avoided over 2 Gt of CO2eq emissions in 2035 under the Announced Pledges Scenario, with lifecycle emissions of BEVs in 2035 being half of ICEVs. Greater grid decarbonization will amplify these savings.
• Air Pollution: EVs improve urban air quality, especially in developing economies, with health benefits estimated at USD 6,000 per vehicle in China.

Policy and Economic Considerations

• Tax Revenue: EV adoption reduces fuel excise taxes, potentially causing net losses of USD 105 billion by 2030 in the Stated Policies Scenario. Governments need to implement complementary policies like distance-based taxes or carbon pricing.
• Job Creation: The EV industry could employ millions, with investments exceeding USD 275 billion in battery and vehicle manufacturing by 2030.

Outlook for the Future

By 2035, EVs could account for 5 billion cars globally, displacing 12 million barrels of oil daily. However, closing the ambition gap between current policies and the Net Zero Emissions Scenario requires stronger government action, corporate innovation, and international cooperation to address supply chain resilience and equity in access.

Conclusion

The transition to electric mobility is accelerating, driven by affordability, policy support, and technological advancements. While challenges remain, the future promises significant environmental and economic benefits if barriers to mass adoption are addressed.