20150630-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_12页_853kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - June 30, 2015

Core Content

The document provides a financial and market analysis for June 30, 2015, covering key stock indices, market movements, and insights from analysts on various sectors, including banks and consumer companies. It also includes a detailed forecast for Jollibee Foods Corp (JFC) and other companies, along with the week ahead events.

Main Points

Market Overview

PSEi: Closed at 7,622.05, with a 0.53% increase.
Turnover (PHPm): 6,155.01, with a -23.94% change.
PLDT ADR (USD): 62.89, with a -0.68% change.
PLDT ADR (PHP): 2,835.40, with a -0.79% change.
Ave interbank rate: 2.50, with a 250 bps change.
PHP/USD rate: 45.14, with no change.

Analysts

Head of Research / Economist: Luz Lorenzo
Analysts: Ramon Adviento, Michael Bengson, Rommel Rodrigo, Lovell Sarreal, Katherine Tan

Top Idea

Consumer JFC (PHP199.80): Profit recovery is delayed to 2H15 due to lower sales growth and margin pressures.
Recommendation: HOLD (unchanged)

Key Insights on Jollibee Foods Corp (JFC)

What's New

Sales Growth: JFC's 2Q15 sales growth is expected to be lower than 1Q15, with Philippine system-wide sales likely to hover around 10%.
SSSG (Same-store sales growth): Expected to be weaker than 1Q15's 5%, mainly due to Jollibee brand's performance.
Price Hikes: A series of price hikes since Dec 2013 affected demand, with Chicken Joy's ASP increased by 9-10% YoY.
Recent Adjustments: Chicken Joy's ASP was reduced at the end of April, but other products' prices remain high.
Other Brands: Mang Inasal and Chowking are performing well.
Costs: Sharp increase in costs due to beef, pork, potatoes, rice, and cooking oil. Beef now accounts for ~15% of total raw material costs.
Raw Material Prices: Beef prices have softened, while chicken prices remain stable.
Inventory: JFC is still using higher-cost inventories, particularly for beef.
Profit Recovery: Expected to resume in 2016 once the cost pressures are mitigated.

What's Our View

Earnings Forecast: Reduced by 8% for both 2015F and 2016F.
Target Price: Reduced by 5% to PHP216.00.
EBIT Growth: Expected to grow by 15% YoY in 2015F and 28% YoY in 2016F.
Net Income Growth: Estimated to rise only by 3% YoY in 2015F and 28% YoY in 2016F.
Effective Tax Rate: Assumed to be 22% for 2015F and 2016F, lower than 2014's 24.5%.
Minority Interest: Increased due to Mang Inasal's strong performance.

Financial Forecasts

Key Data (FYE 31 Dec)

Metric	FY13A	FY14A	FY15E	FY16E	FY17E
Revenue (PHPm)	80,282.8	90,671.2	100,751.4	114,176.5	128,766.1
EBITDA (PHPm)	9,003.6	9,323.1	10,579.8	12,989.4	14,779.3
Core Net Profit (PHPm)	4,671.6	5,362.0	5,539.8	7,082.2	8,191.9
Core EPS (PHP)	4.44	5.03	5.19	6.64	7.68
Core EPS Growth (%)	24.7	13.3	3.3	27.8	15.7
Net DPS (PHP)	3.07	1.46	1.73	2.21	2.56
Core P/E (x)	45.0	39.8	38.5	30.1	26.0
P/BV (x)	9.3	7.8	6.9	6.0	5.2
Net Dividend Yield (%)	1.5	0.7	0.9	1.1	1.3
ROAE (%)	21.5	21.6	19.1	21.3	21.4
ROAA (%)	10.6	10.7	9.9	11.6	12.2
EV/EBITDA (x)	19.7	24.6	19.8	15.9	13.8
Net Debt/Equity (%)	Net cash	Net cash	Net cash	Net cash	Net cash

Forecast Changes (FY15-16F)

Metric	Old FY15 (PHPm)	Revised FY15 (PHPm)	Change (%)	Old FY16 (PHPm)	Revised FY16 (PHPm)	Change (%)
Revenues	101,588	100,751	-0.8	115,269	114,177	-0.9
Operating Costs	-93,747	-93,709	-0.0	-105,236	-105,135	-0.1
Operating Profit	7,840	7,043	-10.2	10,032	9,041	-9.9
Net Interest and Other Income	330	333	+0.8	394	388	-1.6
Income Before Tax	8,170	7,375	-9.7	10,427	9,429	-9.6
Provision for Tax	-2,002	-1,623	-19.0	-2,555	-2,074	-18.8
Minority Interest	-143	-213	+48.9	-182	-272	+49.5
Net Income	6,026	5,540	-8.1	7,690	7,082	-7.9
Operating Margin	7.7%	7.0%	-10.2%	8.7%	7.9%	-9.9%
Net Margin	5.9%	5.5%	-5.9%	6.7%	6.2%	-7.5%
Effective Tax Rate	24.5%	22.0%	-10.0%	24.5%	22.0%	-10.0%

The Week Ahead

June 30: Agrinurture, Inc., MRC Allied Incorporated, Century Pacific Food, Inc., Manila Jockey Club, Inc., Megawide Construction Corp., Philippine Realty & Holdings Corporation, Apex Mining Company, Inc., Basic Energy
July 1: Ipeople, Inc.
July 3: EEI Corporation
July 9: Top Frontier Investment Holdings, Inc., Abacore Capital Holdings, Inc.

Earnings and Valuations Table (as of 29 June 2015)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Rec	Year	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS (PHP)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Net Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
BDO	108.10	123.00	14	BUY	2014	22,466	6.27	0.9	17.2	2.10	1.9	48.56	2.2	-	13.5	14.0
BPI	94.80	101.00	7	HOLD	2014	18,039	4.62	-10.9	20.5	0.91	1.0	36.64	2.6	-	14.5	14.0
CHIB	45.80	51.00	11	HOLD	2014	5,116	3.08	-5.9	14.9	1.46	0.7	25.49	7.8	-	12.0	12.5
EW	19.90	29.00	46	BUY	2014	2,073	1.84	0.9	10.8	-	-	11.6	3.0	-	13.5	14.0
MBT	92.45	105.00	14	BUY	2014	19,614	7.15	-10.9	12.9	0.00	0.0	2.70	3.0	-	13.8	14.5
PBB	18.00	13.00	45	BUY	2014	6,204	0.36	-6.1	24.6	0.15	1.7	2.70	3.3	-	16.2	16.5
PGOLD	37.00	47.50	28	BUY	2014	4,520	1.63	14.2	22.6	0.30	0.8	12.38	3.0	-	13.9	14.4
EMP	8.99	13.00	45	BUY	2014	6,204	0.36	-6.1	24.6	0.15	1.7	2.70	3.3	-	16.2	16.5

Conclusion

The summary highlights the challenges JFC faces in 2015, particularly in the Philippines, due to price hikes and cost pressures. While the company's other brands like Mang Inasal and Chowking are performing well, the overall profit recovery is delayed. Analysts have revised their forecasts downward and reduced the target price for JFC. The document also provides insights into other sectors and the week ahead market events.

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