2004年-世界发展银行全球_Price_Effects_of_Preferential____________Market_Access__The_Caribbean_Basin_Initiative_and_the___Apparel_Sector_30页_257kb

Summary of "Price Effects of Preferential Market Access: The Caribbean Basin Initiative and the Apparel Sector"

Core Content

This paper examines the price effects of the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI), a U.S. unilateral preferential trade program, on the apparel sector. It highlights the importance of analyzing price changes rather than total trade value when evaluating the impact of preferential trade arrangements, as emphasized in theoretical literature but rarely implemented in empirical studies.

The CBI provides tariff and quota-free access to the U.S. market for 24 eligible countries in Central America and the Caribbean. Despite the competitive nature of the apparel market, the study finds that CBI exporters capture only about two-thirds of the preference margin, which translates into a 9% increase in relative prices. However, this effect varies by country and year.

Main Findings

• CBI Exporters' Price Capture: CBI exporters receive an average 9% price increase due to preferential access, but this is not fully captured. Only about two-thirds of the preference margin is captured by them, with the remaining one-third going to U.S. importers.

• Variation Across Countries and Years:

  • Countries specializing in higher-value products capture a larger share of the preference margin.
  • The implementation of NAFTA has a negative effect on the portion of the preference margin captured by CBI countries.
  • The preference margin increased from 13% in 2002, with the price increase attributed to CBI preferences being around 8.5%.

• Impact of MFA Quotas:

  • The Multifibre Agreement (MFA) quotas imposed on third countries like China, India, and Korea significantly reduce the benefits of CBI preferences.
  • Once the MFA quotas are fully removed in 2005, the benefits of CBI preferences are expected to decline substantially.

• Policy Implications:

  • Preferential access is only valuable while excluded countries maintain high trade barriers.
  • CBI countries should move towards higher-value and higher-quality products to better capture the benefits of the preference margin.
  • Long-term reliance on preferences is not advisable, as they are temporary mechanisms for transitioning to a system based on comparative advantage.

Methodology and Estimation

• The study uses fixed effects generalized least squares (FE-GLS) estimation to isolate the effects of various factors (quality, exchange rates, transaction costs) on export prices.

• The dependent variable is the ratio of pre-tariff prices between CBI exporters and the rest of the world.

• The estimation equation is:

  $$
  \ln \left(p _ {k t} ^ {i} / p _ {k t} ^ {R O W}\right) = \beta_ {0} + \beta_ {1} \left(t _ {k t} ^ {R O W} - t _ {k t} ^ {i}\right) + \beta_ {2} X _ {k t} ^ {i} + \beta_ {3} M _ {k t} ^ {R O W} + \sum_ {i} \gamma^ {i} \Omega^ {i} + \sum_ {k} \delta_ {k} \Phi_ {k} + \sum_ {t} \theta_ {t} \Psi_ {t} + e _ {k t} ^ {i}
  $$

• The tariff difference coefficient (β₁) is 0.663 in the full sample, indicating that CBI exporters capture about 66.3% of the preference margin.

• The market share variables (exports and U.S. imports) are also significant, showing that exporters benefit more from increased market share, while U.S. importers face price declines when their market share increases.

Key Variables and Data

• Data Source: U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) provides detailed customs data at the HS 8-digit level for the period 1989–2002.
• Data Classification: The data is categorized based on whether the imports entered the U.S. under a specific preference program (e.g., CBI, NAFTA) or under most-favored-nation (MFN) terms.
• Variables Used:
  • Tariff Difference: The difference between MFN tariffs and CBI preferential tariffs.
  • Market Share Effects: The natural log of country exports and U.S. imports in each category.
  • Country, Product, and Year Dummies: Used to control for unobserved heterogeneity in quality, costs, and other market characteristics.

Limitations and Considerations

• The availability of detailed data allows for a more accurate analysis of price effects in the apparel sector.
• Heteroskedasticity in residuals is addressed using a two-step feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimation.
• The use of dummy variables helps isolate the effects of preferential access from other market influences.

Conclusion

The study concludes that while the CBI provides significant advantages, exporters do not fully capture the preference margin, and the benefits are reduced when trade barriers are lowered (e.g., through NAFTA or MFA quota removal). The apparel sector is an ideal test case for analyzing price effects due to its high utilization of preferences and disaggregated data availability. The findings suggest that CBI countries should focus on quality and value-added products to maximize the benefits of preferential access.