世界经济论坛-首席经济学家2021年全球展望（英文）-2021.1-23页_1mb

Summary of Chief Economists Outlook 2021

Core Content

The Chief Economists Outlook 2021, published by the World Economic Forum, outlines the evolving economic landscape shaped by the COVID-19 pandemic and highlights the key drivers and policy pathways for recovery and transformation in the new year.

The report emphasizes that while the global economy is expected to recover from the pandemic-induced recession, the path forward is complex and requires a shift towards a thriving global economy that prioritizes social justice, climate action, and economic resilience.

Key Drivers Shaping the New Context

The following five major trends are identified as key drivers of the new economic context:

1. Remote Work Arrangements:

   • Remote work has provided continuity for certain segments of the workforce but has also raised concerns about long-term productivity and social interaction.
   • Early evidence suggests that remote work can increase productivity, but this is limited to those with fast internet, no children at home, and a distraction-free environment.
   • Employers are now exploring a hybrid model of work that balances productivity and social interaction.

2. Growing Income Inequality:

   • The pandemic has exacerbated existing inequalities, particularly in the US, where the lowest earners experienced a significant drop in employment compared to the highest.
   • Inequality is expected to have a long-lasting legacy, with concerns about social cohesion and economic fairness.

3. Acceleration of the Digital Economy:

   • The pandemic has accelerated the shift to digital platforms, increasing their role in the economy.
   • This has led to increased market power for tech giants and a wider digital divide.
   • Regulatory actions are increasing, with the EU and US taking steps to address data-driven market power and antitrust concerns.

4. Bigger Government Role:

   • Governments have played a larger role in economic support, with G20 spending commitments reaching over $10 trillion, a triple increase compared to the 2008 financial crisis.
   • Fiscal stimulus is being directed towards sustainable growth and social justice, with examples such as the EU's green economy commitment and the US focus on diversity.

5. Deglobalization:

   • Trade tensions and the impact of the pandemic have led to more localized supply chains and reduced globalization.
   • This trend is expected to persist due to climate change and geopolitical rivalries, especially between the US and China.

Emerging Policy Pathways

The report outlines several policy pathways that aim to address the challenges and opportunities presented by the new economic context:

• Fiscal Policy:

  • Governments have spent significantly to support the economy, with $10 trillion pledged by G20 nations.
  • There is debate over the sustainability of this spending and the timing of transition to more targeted measures.
  • A majority of respondents suggest that the transition to paying down public debt should occur in 2024 or later.

• Monetary Policy:

  • Central banks are playing a critical role in supporting fiscal policy through quantitative easing.
  • There is growing pressure on central banks to incorporate environmental considerations into their monetary policy.
  • Some believe that central bank independence may be weakened due to the crisis.

• Competition Policy:

  • Regulatory actions against tech giants are increasing, with the EU and US leading the way.
  • There is a need to upgrade competition tools to ensure a level playing field in the digital economy.
  • Antitrust efforts are expected to continue, with more scrutiny on acquisitions and market dominance.

• Multilateral Cooperation:

  • The report highlights the importance of multilateral efforts in addressing global challenges.
  • The top priorities include climate change, reducing protectionism, and fiscal support for vulnerable economies.
  • There is a call for reforms of existing international institutions rather than the creation of new ones.

Outlook for 2021

The outlook for 2021 is characterized by a mix of recovery efforts, transformational policies, and ongoing challenges:

• Prosperity is expected to improve, but GDP recovery alone is not enough to signal a true economic leap.
• People have been deeply affected by the pandemic, with trauma and inequality being major concerns.
• Planet remains a key focus, with climate action and green transformation being central to future economic policies.
• Institutions will need to be reformed and coordinated to ensure effective governance and global cooperation.

Conclusion

The Chief Economists Outlook 2021 underscores the complex and evolving nature of the post-pandemic economic landscape. It calls for a strategic shift from the old economy to a more inclusive, sustainable, and resilient global economy, with a strong emphasis on multilateral cooperation, fiscal and monetary support, and regulatory reforms in the digital sector.