2024-08-18-美联储-过度储蓄的宏观经济效应（英）_50页_533kb

报告摘要

The Macroeconomic Effects of Excess Savings

The paper analyzes the depletion of excess savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic and its macroeconomic implications, using a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model.

Key Findings:

Distributional Impact on Depletion:
- Households with lower liquidity and higher marginal propensity to consume (iMPC) deplete excess savings faster.
- Bottom quartile depletes savings first, while top quartile holds longer but depletes within three years.
- Disaggregated data confirms expenditure paths align with model predictions.
Inflation Contribution:
- Excess savings depletion accounts for ~40% of the 2020–2021 U.S. inflation surge (up to 5°C increase).
- Demand-side factors contributed significantly to inflation beyond supply constraints.
Fiscal Policy Effects:
- U.S. fiscal transfers (Economic Impact Payments, CARES Act) reduced aggregate household debt accumulation in the euroarea by sharp contrast.
- Withholding transfers led to deeper consumption contractions and inflation. Without transfers, inflation decline was delayed.

Model Features:

Micro-level iMPC calibration from Norwegian lottery data.
Realistic general equilibrium feedback via Phillips curve, price stickiness, and fiscally financed transfers.
Quantitative match to post-COVID dynamics incorporating modern labor/money market frictions.

Conclusion:

Excess savings play a significant macroeconomic role, contingent on initial distribution and available fiscal space. HANK models are necessary to bridge micro heterogeneity and aggregate outcomes.