2022-12-14-彼得森经济研究所-如何用更灵活的贸易规则拯救世贸组织（英）_11页_296kb

FAILURE OF PERMANENT MULTILATERAL RULES

Introduction

• The WTO is encountering significant challenges due to ongoing geopolitical and economic tensions, particularly between the US and China.
• Disputes stem from issues such as the US withdrawal from the Appellate Body, unimplemented trade barriers, and escalating tariffs, including retaliation from China and other countries.

Two Extremes

1. Deep Integration

   • This approach seeks comprehensive trade rules applicable to all WTO members.
   • Impractical, as different nations have diverging economic policies regarding areas like FDI, e-commerce, subsidies, and industrial policies.
   • Opposition to deeper integration blocked unified negotiations during the Doha Round using consensus, leading to informal agreements away from the WTO.

2. Decoupling

   • Advocates for severing economic ties, especially between the US and China, leading to two blocs with reduced global trade benefits (e.g., GDP reduction estimates).
   • Risky and politically challenging, potentially increasing conflict due to perceived exclusion and economic rivalries.

Need for a Middle Path

• Proposing a variable geometry system:
  • Foundation of universal rules allows flexibility.
  • Allows for plurilateral agreements on specific issues by coalitions of willing members.
• Reforms the safeguard mechanism to address harmful trade disruptions without overburdening investigation processes.

Conclusion

• The safeguard mechanism should focus on outcomes (serious injury) rather than finding causes, making enforcement more feasible.
• Plurilateral agreements under the WTO framework can supplement the multilateral approach, enabling deeper integration on certain topics while allowing others to progress separately.
• Supporting a third approach balances the extremes and preserves the relevance of the multilateral trading system.