2025-06-10-Jefferies-彭博绿色市场的瑞安·福克斯_8页_128kb

Equity Research Summary

The provided document is an equity research report on the paper and packaging sector, focusing on the North American containerboard market. It includes a detailed analysis from Jefferies, covering market dynamics, company valuations, risks, and an upcoming expert call.

Key Highlights

Expert Call Invitation

On June 17, 2025, at 11:00 AM ET, a special call featuring Bloomberg Intelligence's Corrugated Market Analyst Ryan Fox will discuss the North American containerboard and box markets. Mr. Fox shares real-time insights on pricing, demand trends, end-market outlook, trade risks, and market leadership. The call aims to address how consumer inflation and sector changes impact the industry. Relevant stocks mentioned are IP, PKG, SW.

Market Dynamics Overview

The containerboard industry faces volatility due to macroeconomic factors, with box demand returning to 2016 levels. Producers are closing 5%+ of total capacity in 2025, which should normalize operating rates to mid-90% levels historically. Rising costs and trade uncertainties are key drivers of price increases and leadership shifts. Bloomberg introduced a Corrugated Box Cost Index to assess input cost influences.

Company-Specific Analysis

• International Paper (IP): Targeted price of $65 in 2025 on a $4,620 million EBITDA estimate, with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.9x. Risks include weakened macro demand, unmet EBITDA targets, and input cost volatility.
• Packaging Corp of America (PKG): 2025E target of $245, based on $1,881 million EBITDA and an 12.5x EV/EBITDA multiple. Key risks involve wood fiber and other input costs.
• Smurfit Westrock (SW): Target of $44 in 2025, on $5,153 million EBITDA with a 6.7x multiple. Factors include synergy capture risks and geopolitical issues.
• Other companies like Graphic Packaging (GPK, HOLD target $23) and Sonoco (SON, BUY target $64) also face risks tied to input costs and market dynamics.

Rating and Valuation Methods

Jefferies uses metrics like EV/EBITDA, DCF, and growth projections for ratings. Positive activities like cost reductions under management are considered, while risks include currency fluctuations and competition. Overall, ratings are Buy (expected +15%+) or Hold (-10% to +15%+), with price targets based on thorough analysis.

Risks and Disclosures

The sector is exposed to rising input costs, trade wars, and sustainability transitions. Analyst compensation is linked to firm performance, with potential conflicts of interest from business relationships. Jefferies emphasizes that this report is informational only and not personalized advice; it should be reviewed with professional expertise.

Concluding Notes

The North American paper and packaging industry is navigating challenges with innovative leadership and cost pressures. The invited expert call on June 17 offers a timely update. The report underscores the need for monitoring macro trends to adjust investment strategies in this evolving market.