20250608-东吴证券-海外周报_5月非农超预期带动降息预期进一步降温_9页_998kb

Report Summary: UBS Global Macro Weekly

• Core View: Recent US non-agricultural employment data exceeded expectations, leading to a reduction in interest rate easing expectations. Markets showed positive reactions with rises in S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, while Treasury yields increased significantly amid reduced hopes for policy adjustments. High-level communications between the US and China tempered trade-related concerns.

• Major Assets: US stocks and gold posted gains as market sentiment improved due to better-than-expected employment data and diplomatic signals. Conversely, Treasury yields climbed, contributing to a decline in the dollar index; other assets like the euro and yen also saw movements.

• Overseas Economy: US economic indicators displayed mixed signals; manufacturing and services PMI figures weakened, and the trade deficit narrowed, signaling potential adjustments due to tariffs. Central banks responded with interest rate cuts, but inflation concerns, particularly from tariff-induced price pressures, remain a key factor in policy decisions across developed economies.

• May Nonfarm Payrolls: Nonfarm payrolls for May came in slightly above forecasts, but data inconsistencies—such as downward revisions to prior months' figures and disparities between official and ADP reports—suggest a potentially fragile labor market. Household survey data indicated subdued labor demand and supply.

• CPI Outlook: Core Consumer Price Index is expected to rise from recent lows, driven by tariffs and base effects, but the increase is projected to be contained by factors like business cost absorption and existing inflation components, avoiding broad-based consumer impacts.

• Risks: External uncertainties, including potential policy shifts under Trump or divergent central bank actions, pose risks of inflation spikes, systemic financial issues from sustained high rates, or delays in rate normalizations.

This summary captures key points from the report, including market movements, economic data analysis, and risk factors, based on the provided content.