2018全球医疗趋势（英文版）_30页_1mb

2018 Global Medical Trend Rates Summary

Introduction

Aon conducted a survey of 98 countries to determine average medical trend rates for employer-sponsored medical plans. The survey includes responses from Aon professionals, clients, and carriers, reflecting their expectations of medical cost increases. The trend rates do not consider employer countermeasures or negotiations with carriers.

The survey aims to help multinational companies:

• Budget premium costs for medical plan renewals
• Understand factors driving medical cost increases
• Develop wellness and cost-containment initiatives

Core Content

The trend rates represent the percentage increase in medical plan unit costs, accounting for projected price inflation, medical technology advances, utilization patterns, and cost shifting from social programs. The report highlights that medical trend rates are not a comprehensive overview of healthcare costs but rather focus on the technical aspects of medical plan cost inflation.

Key Findings

Medical Trend Rates

• Global Average:
  • 2017: 8.2% (net), 5.4% (gross)
  • 2018: 8.4% (net), 5.3% (gross)
• North America:
  • 2017: 6.3% (net), 4.7% (gross)
  • 2018: 6.9% (net), 4.5% (gross)
• Latin America & Caribbean:
  • 2017: 14.2% (net), 8.2% (gross)
  • 2018: 13.9% (net), 8.7% (gross)
• Europe:
  • 2017: 5.7% (net), 4.1% (gross)
  • 2018: 5.8% (net), 3.8% (gross)
• Middle East & Africa:
  • 2017: 14.3% (net), 7.6% (gross)
  • 2018: 15.3% (net), 7.7% (gross)
• Asia:
  • 2017: 8.9% (net), 6.0% (gross)
  • 2018: 8.9% (net), 5.9% (gross)

General Inflation Rates

• Global Average:
  • 2017: 2.8%
  • 2018: 3.1%
• North America:
  • 2017: 1.6%
  • 2018: 2.4%
• Latin America & Caribbean:
  • 2017: 6.0%
  • 2018: 5.2%
• Europe:
  • 2017: 1.6%
  • 2018: 2.0%
• Middle East & Africa:
  • 2017: 6.7%
  • 2018: 7.6%
• Asia:
  • 2017: 2.9%
  • 2018: 3.0%

Trend Rate Differences

• The gap between the average medical trend rate and general inflation rate decreased from 5.4 to 5.3 percentage points in 2018.
• The global nominal medical trend rate increased by 0.2 percentage points.

Factors Driving Medical Cost Inflation

• Top Global Conditions:

  • Cancer/Tumor Growth (68%)
  • Cardiovascular (66%)
  • High Blood Pressure (54%)
  • Diabetes (48%)
  • Respiratory (44%)

• Regional Differences:

  • APAC: Cancer/Tumor Growth (74%), Cardiovascular (74%), Gastrointestinal (58%), Respiratory (47%)
  • Europe: Cardiovascular (79%), Cancer/Tumor Growth (76%), High Blood Pressure (55%), Musculoskeletal/Back (45%), Diabetes (38%)
  • LATAM: Cancer/Tumor Growth (86%), Diabetes (67%), High Blood Pressure (62%), Musculoskeletal/Back (38%)
  • MEA: High Blood Pressure (72%), Diabetes (60%), Respiratory (56%), Cancer/Tumor Growth (40%)

Risk Factors

• Top Global Risk Factors:

  • High Blood Pressure (78%)
  • Physical Inactivity (49%)
  • Obesity (48%)
  • High Cholesterol (47%)
  • Bad Nutrition (45%)

• Regional Risk Factors:

  • APAC: High Blood Pressure (68%), Obesity (53%), High Cholesterol (47%), Bad Nutrition (47%)
  • Europe: High Blood Pressure (93%), Poor Stress Management (50%), Musculoskeletal/Back (45%), Diabetes (38%)
  • LATAM: High Blood Pressure (81%), Obesity (48%), Diabetes (38%), Bad Nutrition (38%)
  • MEA: High Blood Pressure (72%), Diabetes (60%), Bad Nutrition (44%), Obesity (40%)

Cost Elements

• Top Global Cost Elements:

  • Hospitalization (86%)
  • Clinics/Labs (74%)
  • Physician Services (73%)
  • Prescription Drugs (67%)
  • Maternity (34%)

• Regional Cost Elements:

  • APAC: Hospitalization (89%), Physician Services (74%), Clinics/Labs (68%), Prescription Drugs (63%)
  • Europe: Hospitalization (86%), Clinics/Labs (62%), Physician Services (62%), Dental (52%)
  • LATAM: Hospitalization (86%), Clinics/Labs (86%), Prescription Drugs (86%), Maternity (57%)
  • MEA: Hospitalization (88%), Clinics/Labs (88%), Prescription Drugs (84%), Physician Services (80%)

Cost Mitigation Methods

• Top Global Methods:

  • Wellness Initiatives (71%)
  • Cost Containment (69%)
  • Access and Delivery Restrictions (49%)

• Regional Methods:

  • APAC: Cost Containment (71%), Wellness Initiatives (69%), Access and Delivery Restrictions (63%)
  • Europe: Cost Containment (69%), Wellness Initiatives (65%), Provider Networks (63%)
  • LATAM: Wellness Initiatives (59%), Cost Containment (54%), Access and Delivery Restrictions (53%)
  • MEA: Wellness Initiatives (54%), Cost Containment (52%), Access and Delivery Restrictions (51%)

Employee Cost Sharing

• Global Trends:

  • Share of Medical Premiums: 78%
  • Share of Medical Claims: 85%

• Regional Trends:

  • APAC: 68% (premiums), 95% (claims)
  • Europe: 94% (premiums), 65% (claims)
  • LATAM: 90% (premiums), 86% (claims)
  • MEA: 52% (premiums), 100% (claims)

Medical Plan Features

• Global Prevalence:
  • Hospitalization (90%)
  • Outpatient (86%)
  • Vision (60%)
  • Dental (63%)
  • Prescription Drugs (72%)
  • Preventive Medicine (62%)

Notes

• Venezuela was excluded from the survey due to hyperinflation.
• The trend rate figures are based on a weighted average using each country's average private health care insurance expenditure per person and geometric averaging.
• The report emphasizes the importance of understanding and addressing non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which are linked to lifestyle factors and can be mitigated through employer initiatives.

Call to Action

• Employers are urged to focus on wellness initiatives and cost-containment strategies to address rising medical costs and chronic conditions.
• Targeted initiatives are essential due to varying regional health risks and conditions.

Conclusion

The report provides insights into global and regional medical trend rates, key cost drivers, and mitigation strategies. It underscores the need for employers to adapt their approaches to address the specific health challenges and cost factors in their respective markets.