拉丁美洲经济委员会-2021年拉丁美洲和加勒比国际贸易展望：追求弹性和可持续的复苏总结（英）-2021.12-24页_3mb

Summary of International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2021

Core Content

The International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2021 is an annual report by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) that analyzes the region's trade performance in the context of the global recovery from the impacts of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. It highlights the importance of regional integration and the role of international trade in fostering resilience, sustainability, and self-sufficiency, particularly in the health-care industry and the transition to a circular economy.

Main Chapters and Key Points

Chapter I: Global and Regional Trade Recovery

• Global Trade Recovery:

  • The global goods trade volume contracted by -5.3% in 2020, the smallest decline since 2009.
  • A strong recovery is expected in 2021, with a projected growth of 10.8%, the largest since 2010.
  • Trade in services remains weak due to the ongoing impact of mobility restrictions on international tourism.

• Regional Trade Performance:

  • Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) goods trade recovered significantly in 2021, driven by higher commodity prices, increased import demand from major economies (China, EU, US), and the region's own economic recovery.
  • Regional exports grew by 7%, while imports surged by 24%, leading to a projected US$24 billion goods trade surplus in 2021.
  • South America is expected to see the largest export value increase (34%), due to its export specialization in commodities.
  • The Caribbean may benefit from high prices of oil, gas, and bauxite.
  • The terms of trade improved for hydrocarbon and agroindustrial exporters, but worsened for countries reliant on fuel and raw material imports, such as Central America and Mexico.

• Challenges:

  • The recovery is uneven, with services trade still lagging.
  • The region's reliance on external supply chains and the decline in intraregional trade since 2019 highlight the need for deeper regional integration.
  • The pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities in the region's export capacity, especially for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Chapter II: Regional Productive Self-Sufficiency in the Health-Care Industry

• Health-Care Industry Overview:

  • The health-care industry includes pharmaceuticals, medical devices, biotechnology, and digital health, and is critical for public health and innovation.
  • Global health-care exports reached US$1.1 trillion in 2020, accounting for 6% of global goods trade.

• Pharmaceuticals:

  • LAC accounts for only 1.1% of global pharmaceutical exports, with a persistent trade deficit.
  • The region's pharmaceutical exports fell by 28% between 2012 and 2020.
  • The main destinations for pharmaceutical exports are the region itself (46%) and the US (25%).
  • The EU is the main supplier of pharmaceutical imports, representing 50% of the region's total.

• Medical Devices:

  • Medical device exports in LAC grew by 86% between 2010 and 2019, reaching US$16.4 billion.
  • The region has a trade surplus in this sector, with exports concentrated in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico.
  • The US accounts for 89% of medical device exports, while only 2% go to other LAC countries.
  • The main suppliers are the US and China, with China's share of imports increasing from 14% in 2019 to over 32% in 2020.

• Key Challenges:

  • The region's heavy dependence on extraregional imports makes it vulnerable.
  • Most exports are concentrated in low- and medium-complexity products, with a deficit in high-tech segments.
  • Regional integration is crucial to create a larger, more stable market and promote competitive production scales.

• Recommendations:

  • Strengthen regional coordination and integration in trade, production, and health.
  • Develop a regional health-care self-sufficiency plan, including local production of vaccines, medicines, and medical devices.
  • Enhance regulatory cooperation to facilitate the creation of a regional market.

Chapter III: International Trade and the Circular Economy

• Circular Economy Overview:

  • In a circular economy, the focus is on reducing resource use, extending product life, and recovering materials at the end of their useful life.
  • Trade plays a key role by enabling the transfer of goods and materials to countries with the necessary recycling, reuse, or remanufacturing capacity.

• LAC's Potential:

  • The region has significant potential in the valorization of agricultural waste, especially from vegetable oil extraction, which can be used in food and pharmaceutical industries and for bioplastics.
  • Opportunities also exist in the pulp-paper chain and tourism sectors.

• Strategies for Integration:

  • Harmonizing trade and circular economy agendas can enhance market access and cooperation.
  • Incorporating circular economy principles into trade agreements can help reduce trade barriers and promote international standards.

• Conclusion:

  • International trade is a vital tool for advancing the circular economy and achieving sustainable development in the region.

Key Information

• Global Trade Growth:

  • Projected to grow by 10.8% in 2021, the largest since 2010.
  • Expected to grow by 4.7% in 2022, double the average growth between 2012 and 2019.

• Regional Trade Performance:

  • LAC goods exports are projected to increase by 25% in 2021.
  • Imports are expected to rise by more than 25% in all subregions.
  • The region's trade surplus in goods is expected to reach US$24 billion in 2021.

• Regional Integration Needs:

  • Deepening integration is essential to achieve a sustainable and transformative recovery.
  • It will help reduce dependence on external markets, enhance self-sufficiency, and support innovation and competitiveness.

• Health-Care Sector Challenges:

  • LAC has a small share of global pharmaceutical exports and a large trade deficit.
  • Medical devices exports are more robust, but still heavily dependent on the US and China.
  • Regional coordination is needed to promote local production and reduce reliance on imports.

• Circular Economy Opportunities:

  • Trade can facilitate the transfer of materials and products to countries with better recycling and reuse capabilities.
  • The region can leverage its agricultural and industrial waste to develop new products and services.
  • Integrating circular economy principles into trade agreements can promote sustainable development and reduce environmental impact.