2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Senegal_Request_for_a_Three_70页_1mb

Summary of the Request for a Three-Year Policy Support Instrument for Senegal

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board approved a three-year Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Senegal in June 2015. This instrument is designed to support the implementation of a three-year macroeconomic reform program aligned with the government's national development plan, the Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE), which aims to transform Senegal into an emerging market by 2035. The PSI is expected to help the country achieve higher and more sustainable growth, reduce poverty, and maintain macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability.

Main Policy Recommendations

• Broaden, deepen, and accelerate structural reforms to preserve macroeconomic stability and improve the business environment.
• Anchor fiscal policy on a deficit reduction path to meet the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) convergence criteria, aiming for a fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP by 2019.
• Improve public expenditure efficiency, especially in public investment and rationalize public consumption to secure fiscal space for the PSE.
• Increase domestic fiscal revenue in a manner that supports investment by Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

Key Issues and Objectives

The PSE is structured around three pillars:

1. Higher and sustainable growth through structural transformation.
2. Human development and social protection.
3. Improved governance, peace, and security.

The three-year program supported by the PSI aims to:

• Achieve high, sustainable, and inclusive growth.
• Preserve macroeconomic stability through prudent fiscal policy.
• Strengthen institutions and reform the state.
• Improve the business climate and governance.
• Build human capital and social protection.

Economic Outlook and Targets

• The 2015 real GDP growth is projected to be 5.1 percent, potentially reaching 5.5 percent with effective implementation of PSE reforms.
• Medium-term growth targets include increasing GDP growth to 6-7 percent by 2016-18 and 7.3 percent by 2019.
• The inflation rate is expected to remain below 2 percent in 2015 and 3 percent in the medium term.
• The budget deficit is targeted to decrease from 4.7 percent of GDP in 2015 to 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3 percent in 2018.
• The current account deficit is expected to reduce from 9 percent of GDP in 2014 to 6.5 percent in 2017.

Risks and Mitigation Measures

• Significant but manageable risks include delayed reform implementation, election-related pressures, and external shocks such as oil price volatility, regional instability, and natural disasters.
• To mitigate these risks, the authorities plan to:
  • Enlarge the precautionary reserve envelope (PRE) to link project financing with reform progress.
  • Adopt a debt anchor to ensure fiscal policy returns to the original consolidation path in case of deviations.
  • Strengthen fiscal discipline through transparency and improved public financial management (PFM).

Key Reforms Supported by the PSI

• Tax and customs reforms to improve fiscal stability and create space for public investment.
• Public expenditure rationalization by freezing public consumption in real terms, reducing subsidies for loss-making enterprises, and improving the efficiency of public spending.
• Improved budget process with a focus on simplifying procedures, reducing red tape, and enhancing transparency.
• Reforms in the tourism and energy sectors to improve service quality, labor conditions, and reduce electricity subsidies.
• Land and property reforms to create property rights and encourage private investment in agriculture.
• Labor market reforms to support job creation while maintaining economic flexibility.
• Investment regime reforms to emphasize ex-post verification over ex-ante approval to attract FDI and SMEs.

Support from the IMF and Other Partners

• The IMF and World Bank are collaborating to support the PSE and the PSI program.
• The World Bank is supporting reforms in the peanut sector, electricity sector, and education and labor markets.
• The PSI will also promote financial inclusion and good governance within the WAEMU framework.

Implementation Progress

• The authorities have already initiated several PSE-related reforms, including:
  • Freezing public consumption in real terms.
  • Introducing a precautionary reserve envelope.
  • Reforming university scholarships and public sector wages.
  • Abolishing visas to promote tourism.
• The new Tax Code has contributed to better-than-expected revenue performance in 2014 and January 2015.

Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability

• The fiscal deficit is expected to decrease gradually over the three-year period, reaching 3 percent of GDP by 2018.
• The public debt is projected to remain below 53 percent of GDP in the medium term, consistent with debt sustainability.
• The National Public Debt Committee will be reinforced to ensure better control over debt management.

Conclusion

The PSI represents a critical support mechanism for Senegal to advance its growth strategy (PSE) and achieve inclusive and sustainable development. The program emphasizes structural reforms, fiscal discipline, and improved governance to create an environment conducive to private investment and economic growth. The IMF and World Bank are key partners in this process, providing technical assistance and support for reform implementation. The success of the PSI depends on the effective and timely execution of these reforms and the ability to manage both internal and external risks.