20140514-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_49页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 14 May 2014
Core Content
This document provides a comprehensive overview of the regional markets and key economic indicators for May 14, 2014, with a focus on Malaysia, China, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes updates on the palm oil sector, economic data, corporate events, analyst recommendations, and market performance metrics.
Main Points and Key Information
Palm Oil Sector (Malaysia)
- Inventory: Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 4.6% month-over-month (mom) to 1.77m tonnes, slightly above market expectations, but still 7.7% lower year-over-year (yoy).
- Production: CPO production grew 3.9% mom to 1.56m tonnes in April, driven by improved FFB yields and the high production season.
- Exports: Exports growth slowed to 1.2% mom in April, with a yoy decline of 13.4%, but strong demand from China and India was noted.
- Future Outlook: Inventory is unlikely to spike in 2H14 due to higher biodiesel and festive demand. The impact of the 1Q14 drought may affect production in late 3Q14.
- El Niño Risk: The chances of El Niño occurring remain high, which could be a positive catalyst for CPO prices.
- Recommendations: Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the palm oil sector. Top picks include Wilmar International (WIL SP/BUY/Target: S$4.00), First Resources (FR SP/BUY/Target: S$2.80), Bumitama Agri (BAL SP/BUY/Target: S$1.40), Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP/BUY/Target: S$0.70), and Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ/BUY/Target: Rp33,800).
China Economic Data
- April Data: China's April economic data disappointed, with urban fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth at 16.6% yoy, IP growth at 8.7% yoy, and retail sales growth at 11.9% yoy, all below market expectations.
- GDP Target: The government may introduce more growth-supportive measures to meet its GDP target of 7.0-7.5% yoy.
- Retail Sales: Urban retail sales growth slowed to -2.6% yoy, while catering sales dropped to -11.8% yoy, likely due to the anti-corruption drive.
- Real Estate FAI: Weaker real estate FAI growth in April (16.4% yoy) contributed to the overall slowdown in FAI growth.
- Recommendations: Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the auto sector. BUY Brilliance (1114 HK/Target: HK$17.50) and DFM (489 HK/Target: HK$16.00). SELL Geely, BYD, and GWM.
Indonesia
- Cement Sector: Sales volume for April 2014 was 18.6mt (+2.5% yoy), in line with the full-year target. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT due to high valuations.
- Stocks: PTT (PTT TB/BUY/Bt302.00/Target: Bt360.00) reported results above expectations, and SVI (SVI TB/BUY/Bt4.02/Target: Bt4.50) was upgraded to BUY.
Singapore
- ComfortDelGro (CD SP/BUY/S$2.12/Target: S$2.30): No surprises in Q1 results, but the company is steadily performing.
- Super Group (SUPER SP/HOLD/S$3.23/Target: S$3.33): Had a weak quarter, with challenges in key markets.
- Share Price Performance: Some stocks, such as Wilmar International (WIL SP), First Resources (FR SP), and Bumitama Agri (BAL SP), showed positive performance.
Thailand
- Banpu (BANPU TB/HOLD/Bt29.50/Target: Bt28.00): Results were in line with expectations.
- Diamond Building Products (DRT TB/BUY/Bt6.00/Target: Bt7.00): Weak results, but recovery may be seen in 4Q14. Share price looks attractive.
- Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/HOLD/Bt23.60/Target: Bt22.00): Slightly ahead of expectations, but some headwinds remain.
- Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB/HOLD/Bt17.60/Target: Bt18.00): Earnings were in line with expectations.
- Quality Houses (QH TB/BUY/Bt3.08/Target: Bt3.58): Results in line with expectations.
- The Erawan Group (ERW TB/HOLD/Bt3.76/Target: Bt3.90): Earnings were hit by political turmoil.
Corporate Events
- Centaline Property Agency Luncheon: Hong Kong, 14 May.
- Macau Gaming and China Telecommunications Analyst Presentation: Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, 14-16 May.
- Singapore Banks Analyst Presentation: Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, 19-22 May.
- Lunchon Presentation with Mr. Tristan Gerra: Hong Kong, 23 May.
- QT Vascular Corporate Roadshow: Singapore, 29 May.
- Hong Kong & China Consumer Outlook Analyst Presentation: Canada and US, 26 May-6 Jun.
Key Indices
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 16695.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 4.2 | 0.7 |
| S&P 500 | 1896.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 4.5 | 2.6 |
| FTSE 100 | 6851.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 |
| AS30 | 5429.0 | (0.2) | (0.3) | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| CSI 300 | 2180.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | (4.0) | (6.4) |
| FSSTI | 3222.4 | (0.9) | (0.6) | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| HSCEI | 9827.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | (3.9) | (9.1) |
| HSI | 22261.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | (3.2) | (4.5) |
| JCI | 4913.0 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 14.9 |
| KLCI | 1866.1 | (0.0) | 0.3 | 0.7 | (0.0) |
| KOSPI | 1964.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | (1.6) | (2.3) |
| Nikkei 225 | 14149.5 | (0.4) | (2.3) | 1.4 | (13.1) |
| SET | 1375.1 | (0.2) | (3.3) | (1.0) | 5.9 |
| TWSE | 8808.6 | (0.9) | (0.7) | (1.1) | 2.3 |
| BDI | 987 | (1.0) | (2.9) | (1.5) | (56.7) |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2627 | 0.1 | (1.0) | (0.9) | 2.1 |
| Nymex Crude | 101 | (0.0) | 1.1 | (3.1) | 2.2 |
Sector Catalysts
- Supply Shortfall: The dry spell in 1H13 could have a similar impact as 3Q13, potentially boosting CPO prices.
- Weather Disruption: Negative impacts on agricultural production could increase palm oil prices.
- Biodiesel Demand: The implementation of B5 mandates in Malaysia and increased biodiesel usage are expected to absorb excess supply.
Risks
- Declining Crude Oil Prices: May reduce the commercial viability of converting edible oil to biodiesel, increasing edible oil supply and negatively affecting CPO prices.
Summary of MPOB Data
| Metric | Feb 14 | Mar 14 | Apr 14 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPO Production | 1.28 | 1.50 | 1.56 |
| Palm Oil Stocks | 1.66 | 1.69 | 1.77 |
| Palm Oil Exports | 1.35 | 1.24 | 1.26 |
| CPO Price (RM/tonne) | 2,632 | 2,855 | 2,690 |
Analysts
- Tham Mun Hon: +852 2236 6799, munhon.tham@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Benjamin Ho: +852 2236 6798, benjamin ho@uobkayhian.com.hk
Peer Comparison (Selected)
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap (US$m) | Rec | Price (RM) | Target Price (RM) | PE 2013 | PE 2014F | PE 2015F | ROE 2014F | P/B 2014F | Div Yield 2014F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliance | 1114 HK | 7,987 | BUY | 12.32 | 17.50 | 14.6 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 34.0 | 3.6 |
| Dongfeng Motor | 489 HK | 11,337 | BUY | 10.20 | 16.00 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 13.2 | 2.6 |
| Guangzhou Auto | 2238 HK | 7,222 | BUY | 7.76 | 10.00 | 15.1 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | n.a. | 1.2 |
| Wilmar International | WIL SP | 16,325 | BUY | 3.19 | 4.00 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 9.9 | 3.1 |
| Astra Agro Lestari | AALI IJ | 3,963 | BUY | 29,000 | 33,800 | 25.4 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 4.6 | 444.2 | 1.5 |
Conclusion
The report highlights the mixed performance of the regional markets, with a focus on the palm oil sector showing resilience despite lower-than-expected exports. China's economic data raised concerns, indicating a need for more stimulus measures. Analysts recommend maintaining MARKET WEIGHT on the auto sector in China, particularly for Brilliance and DFM, while OVERWEIGHT is suggested for the palm oil sector. The report also outlines key risks and potential catalysts, emphasizing the importance of monitoring weather conditions and crude oil prices.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
