20140731-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_12页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 31 July 2014
Core Market Movements
- Crude Oil:
- Brent: Down 1.1% to $106.51 per barrel.
- WTI: Down 0.7% to $100.27 per barrel.
- Henry Hub: Down 1.0% to $3.79 per MMBtu.
- LNG:
- Northeast Asia CFR: Flat at $11.00 per MMBtu.
- Gasoline:
- Middle East to Asia: Gasoline flows reached an 8-month high.
- Shandong, China: Commercial crude stock fell 32% WoW to 410kt.
- Gold: Down 0.2% to $1,296.30 per ounce.
- USD-CNY: Down 0.2% to 6.17.
- Stock Indices:
- DJI: Down 0.2% to 16,880.36.
- S&P 500: Up 0.0% to 1,970.07.
Key News Highlights
- Sanctions on Russia: The US and EU imposed sanctions on Russia's oil sector, while leaving the gas sector untouched. BP warned of potential negative impacts on its business.
- Libya Oil Output: Conflicts in Libya are hindering the revival of oil output from the country's largest crude reserves, with no shipments from Es Sider and Ras Lanuf yet.
- US Gasoline Inventories: Increased by 365k bbls to 218.2mmbbls, contributing to the drop in WTI.
- India LNG Approval: The Indian government approved the Petronet LNG project, which is expected to be operational in 3-4 years.
- S-Oil Profit Increase: S-Oil reported a 46% YoY and 38% QoQ rise in 2Q14 profit due to higher base oil margins.
- Kashagan Field Delay: The restart of the Kashagan field in Kazakhstan may be delayed to 2H16.
Latest Reports
Cairn India
- Rating: Buy
- Target Price: INR400
- Performance: 1Q recurring EPS INR14.5, above expectations.
- Reason for Buy: Strong production and reserves, despite a 12% stock sell-off due to a INR48b loan to a group company.
- Valuation Metrics:
- P/E 2014E: 4.4x
- P/E 2015E: 4.2x
- EV/EBITDA 2014E: 3.0x
- EV/EBITDA 2015E: 2.8x
- Dividend Yield: 4%
Yinson Holdings
- Rating: Buy
- Target Price: MYR3.03
- Performance: Sold Petroleum Nautipa for USD59m, expected to make a MYR79m gain.
- Reason for Buy: Proceeds will be used for new opportunities to enhance value.
- Valuation Metrics:
- P/E 2014E: 11.7x
- P/E 2015E: 6.8x
- EV/EBITDA 2014E: 41.1x
- Dividend Yield: 0.6%
Keppel Corp
- Rating: Hold
- Target Price: SGD10.95
- Performance: 2Q14 results met expectations, O&M margin rose to 14.5%.
- Reason for Hold: Oversupplied rig market and reduced capex may cap share price upside.
- Valuation Metrics:
- P/E 2014E: 12.1x
- P/E 2015E: 11.4x
- EV/EBITDA 2014E: 11.1x
- Dividend Yield: 4.0%
Asia Oil & Gas Valuation Comparison
China
- PetroChina - H: Buy, Price HK$10.44, Target HK$11.50
- Sinopec - H: Hold, Price HK$7.71, Target HK$6.85
- CNOOC LTD: Hold, Price HK$13.96, Target HK$14.34
India
- ONGC: Hold, Price INR398.95, Target INR6.85
- Reliance Industries: NR, Price INR1,006.15, Target INR73.2
- Cairn India: Buy, Price INR319.50, Target INR400
- BPCL: NR, Price INR573.40, Target INR18.7
- HPCL: NR, Price INR389.30, Target INR13.4
Japan
- INPEX: NR, Price JPY1,549.50, Target JPY59.2
- JAPEX: NR, Price JPY3,925.00, Target JPY13.7
- JX Holding: NR, Price JPY536.50, Target JPY44.2
- Showa Shell: NR, Price JPY1,181.00, Target JPY18.3
- TonenGeneral: NR, Price JPY904.00, Target JPY5.0
- Idemitsu: NR, Price JPY2,153.00, Target JPY3.3
- Cosmo: NR, Price JPY209.00, Target JPY1.7
Philippines
- Petron Corp: Buy, Price PHP12.28, Target PHP16.80
- Phoenix Petro: Buy, Price PHP5.86, Target PHP7.05
South Korea
- S-Oil: NR, Price KRW54,600, Target KRW12.9
- SK Innovation: NR, Price KRW104,000, Target KRW50.3
- GS Holdings: NR, Price KRW46,850, Target KRW11.9
Thailand
- PTT Global Chemical PCL: Buy, Price THB66.75, Target THB87.00
- PTT PCL: Buy, Price THB326.00, Target THB395.00
- Thai Oil PCL: Sell, Price THB51.75, Target THB65.00
Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Gas: Buy, Price VND111,000, Target VND103,000
- PetroVietnam Drilling & Well: NR, Price VND91,500, Target VND1.2
- PetroVietnam Technical Services: NR, Price VND32,500, Target VND4.4
Asian Oil & Gas Average Valuation
- P/E 2014E: 12.0x
- EV/EBITDA 2014E: 9.4x
- RoE 2014E: 12.3%
- P/B 2014E: 1.4x
- Yield 2014E: 3.4%
Asian Oil Service Valuation Comparison
China
- Anton Oilfield Services: NR, Price HK$4.51, Target NR
- China Oilfield Services-H: NR, Price HK$19.48, Target NR
- Chu Kong Petroleum: NR, Price HK$2.59, Target NR
- Hilong Holding: NR, Price HK$4.35, Target NR
- Honghua Group: NR, Price HK$1.93, Target NR
- Sinopec Engineering-H: NR, Price HK$8.89, Target NR
- SPT Energy: NR, Price HK$4.10, Target NR
Malaysia
- Alam Maritim: Buy, Price MYR1.56, Target MYR1.90
- Barakah Offshore: Buy, Price MYR1.63, Target MYR1.90
- Bumi Armada: Buy, Price MYR3.35, Target MYR4.55
- Coastal Contracts: NR, Price MYR5.11, Target NR
- Daya Materials: NR, Price MYR0.30, Target NR
- Dayang Enterprise: NR, Price MYR3.80, Target NR
- Dialog: Buy, Price MYR1.82, Target MYR1.93
- KNM: Buy, Price MYR1.05, Target MYR1.00
- MMHE: Buy, Price MYR3.53, Target MYR4.20
- Perdana Petroleum: Buy, Price MYR1.85, Target MYR2.55
- Perisai Petroleum: Buy, Price MYR1.54, Target MYR1.76
- Petra Energy: NR, Price MYR3.08, Target NR
- SpurakKencana: Buy, Price MYR4.29, Target MYR5.30
- TH Heavy Engineering: NR, Price MYR0.92, Target NR
- UMW O&G: Buy, Price MYR4.07, Target MYR5.15
- UZMA: NR, Price MYR3.76, Target NR
- Wah Seong: Hold, Price MYR1.86, Target MYR1.49
Singapore
- Cosco Corp: Sell, Price SGD0.71, Target SGD0.68
- Dyna-Mac: NR, Price SGD0.39, Target NR
- Ezion: Buy, Price SGD2.11, Target SGD2.70
- Ezra: NR, Price SGD1.18, Target NR
- Keppel: Hold, Price SGD11.02, Target SGD10.95
- Mermaid Maritime: Buy, Price SGD0.44, Target SGD0.59
- Nam Cheong: Buy, Price SGD0.46, Target SGD0.55
- SembCorp Marine: Hold, Price SGD4.14, Target SGD4.04
- Swiber: Hold, Price SGD0.52, Target SGD0.59
- Vard Holdings: Buy, Price SGD1.10, Target SGD1.25
- Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Hold, Price SGD1.09, Target SGD1.18
Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Drilling & Well: NR, Price VND91,500, Target VND1.3
- PetroVietnam Technical Services: NR, Price VND32,500, Target VND4.4
Asian Oil Service Average Valuation
- P/E 2014E: 11.8x
- EV/EBITDA 2014E: 10.3x
- RoE 2014E: 15.7%
- P/B 2014E: 2.0x
- Yield 2014E: 3.4%
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