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Summary of "Small towns, massive opportunity: Unlocking rural America's potential"

Core content

This report from the McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility (IEM) explores the economic and social dynamics of rural America, identifying six distinct archetypes of rural communities to better understand their unique characteristics and opportunities for growth. The goal is to provide actionable insights to improve economic mobility and resilience in rural areas.

Main points

Rural America's significance

• Rural areas account for one-seventh of the U.S. population (about 46 million people), 71 percent of the country's geography, and $2.7 trillion of GDP (nearly 10 percent of the total).
• Despite their size and economic contribution, rural communities are often overlooked in national discussions on economic development.
• The term "rural America" is not a monolith, and its classification is fluid, with some rural counties reclassifying as urban due to economic growth or population shifts.

Six rural archetypes

The report identifies six archetypes of rural communities based on economic, social, and geographic characteristics:

1. Agricultural powerhouses

   • Characteristics: Small to moderate-sized communities with a strong agricultural focus, high labor force participation, and stable economies.
   • Key data: 7% of rural population, 59.8% labor force participation rate, median household income of around $62,000 in representative counties.
   • Variation: Some are focused on commodity crops (e.g., corn, hogs, dairy) with higher GDP per capita than others.

2. Manufacturing workshops

   • Characteristics: Midsize, growing communities with a significant share of GDP from manufacturing.
   • Key data: 26% of rural population, 30%+ of GDP from manufacturing, median household income of $44,500–$62,000.
   • Subcategories:
     • Deindustrializing counties: Concentrated in the Rust Belt.
     • Reshoring counties: Found in the South, with higher GDP growth and educational attainment.

3. Migration magnets

   • Characteristics: Midsize to large communities with high in-migration rates.
   • Key data: 25% of rural population, median household income of $54,100–$70,500, growing population due to proximity to MSAs or tourism hubs.
   • Examples: Park County, Wyoming, and Putnam County, Tennessee, have seen significant population and income growth.

4. Remote regions

   • Characteristics: Small, isolated communities with low economic output and high out-migration.
   • Key data: 15% of rural population, lowest GDP per capita (about one-third lower than the next closest archetype), 50.7% labor participation rate, and 6.6% unemployment rate.
   • Examples: Keith County, Nebraska, and Tallahatchie County, Mississippi, face economic challenges and require targeted investment.

5. Resource-rich regions

   • Characteristics: Remote communities where resource extraction (e.g., mining, oil, gas) constitutes more than 25% of GDP.
   • Key data: 5% of rural population, GDP per capita is about twice that of agricultural powerhouses, but GDP declined by 6% from 2020 to 2022.
   • Examples: Reeves County, Texas, and Leslie County, Kentucky, have seen economic decline due to resource sector shifts, but are working on diversification.

6. Middle America

   • Characteristics: Midsize or large communities with diverse economies and no major industry specialization.
   • Key data: 22% of rural population, better-than-average economic outcomes, and a mix of industries.
   • Examples: Somerset County, Maine, has a diversified economy and a strong local identity.

Key insights

• Economic diversity is a defining feature of rural communities, though they are often more specialized than urban areas.
• Industry concentration can make rural communities more vulnerable to economic shocks but also allows for focused growth.
• Urban-rural classification is dynamic, and some rural counties have seen significant growth and transformation into urban areas, challenging traditional narratives.
• Economic mobility varies significantly across rural archetypes, requiring tailored strategies to improve outcomes.

Strategies for rural economic development

• The report outlines six strategies to catalyze growth and enhance economic mobility in rural America, tailored to the specific needs of each archetype.
• These strategies are based on data-driven analysis and aim to create long-term, inclusive economic development.
• Examples of strategies include:
  • Supporting advanced manufacturing in reshoring counties.
  • Enhancing tourism and hospitality in migration magnets.
  • Investing in diversification and innovation in resource-rich and agricultural regions.
  • Improving labor force participation and educational attainment in remote and struggling rural areas.

Conclusion

By identifying these six archetypes, the report provides a framework for understanding rural America's complexity and offers a nonpartisan, data-driven approach to unlocking its potential. The focus is on segmented analysis and targeted action, recognizing that rural communities are not uniform and require different solutions to thrive.

Key information

• Research team: Led by JP Julien, Nora Gardner, Sarah Tucker-Ray, and Shelley Stewart III; supported by McKinsey consultants and IEM fellows.
• Data sources: US Census Bureau, Moody's Analytics, and McKinsey's CityX tool.
• Publication date: March 2025.
• Purpose: To provide actionable insights for improving economic mobility and growth in rural America through a better understanding of its diverse characteristics.