20150121-法国巴黎银行-Good_results_to_support_higher_DPS_14页_586kb
报告摘要
Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) - Summary
核心内容
Hang Lung Properties (HLP) is a major developer in Hong Kong that has shifted its focus towards mainland China, particularly in second-tier cities. The company is currently upgraded from Hold to BUY with an unchanged target price of HKD24.10, which represents a 14% upside from the current close price of HKD21.15. This upgrade is based on strong earnings growth and improving retail rental performance, alongside attractive valuations.
主要观点
- Earnings Growth: HLP's underlying profit is expected to grow by 78% y-y to HKD8.98 billion in FY14, driven by a 311% y-y increase in Hong Kong property revenue, reaching a record high of HKD10.3 billion with a 60% operating margin.
- Dividend Growth: Full-year DPS is projected to increase by 7% y-y to HKD0.80, assuming a 40% payout ratio.
- Valuation: The stock is trading at a 38% discount to FY15E NAV, which is around 1SD below the historical average. It also trades at 0.7x FY15E P/B, close to a record low.
- Rental Performance: Rental revenue for retail malls in tier-2 cities in China is expected to improve gradually in 2H14 due to restructuring efforts and easing policies.
- Potential Catalysts: The re-launch of The Long Beach in Hong Kong and an improvement in China's retail market are seen as key catalysts for the stock.
- Key Risks: A hard landing of the Chinese economy and new government policies to curb housing demand could negatively impact performance.
关键信息
财务预测
| 指标 | 2013A (HKD m) | 2014E (HKD m) | 2015E (HKD m) | 2016E (HKD m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,138 | 17,632 | 12,512 | 13,376 |
| Recurring Net Profit | 5,050 | 8,978 | 6,967 | 7,309 |
| Recurring EPS (HKD) | 1.13 | 2.00 | 1.55 | 1.63 |
| DPS (HKD) | 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| P/B | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| P/NAV | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Recurring P/E | 18.8 | 10.6 | 13.6 | 13.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.3 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 10.6 |
| Net Debt/Equity (%) | 0.5 | (7.0) | (0.8) | 3.6 |
| ROE (%) | 4.2 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Net Margin (%) | 55.3 | 50.9 | 55.7 | 54.6 |
| Effective Tax Rate (%) | 15.7 | 18.2 | 19.0 | 19.2 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
报告关键数据
- 2014E：HK property revenue is expected to reach HKD10.3 billion, a 311% y-y increase.
- 2014E：Gross rental revenue from China is projected to grow 14% y-y to HKD4.0 billion, with contributions from new projects in Tianjin and Dalian.
- 2015E：Gross rental revenue from China is expected to remain at 14% y-y growth.
- NAV: FY15E NAV is estimated at HKD34.50/share, with a 30% discount to the target price of HKD24.10.
- Key Projects:
- The Harbourside: 261 out of 272 units sold in 2H14.
- The Long Beach: 708 units remaining to be sold, expected to attract strong demand.
- Riverside 66 (Tianjin): Opened in September 2014.
- Olympia 66 (Dalian): Expected to open in 2H15.
投资观点
- Upgrade to BUY: Based on the HKD24.10 target price, which implies a 14% upside from current levels.
- Valuation Discount: The current price is 38% below FY15E NAV and 1SD below the historical average.
- Market Position: The company is well-positioned to benefit from improving retail performance in China and strong property sales in Hong Kong.
风险提示
- 中国经济硬着陆：可能影响零售消费和租金收入。
- 政策变化：政府可能出台新政策抑制住房需求，影响香港的首次发售。
公司背景
Hang Lung Properties 是香港的主要开发商之一，已将业务重心转向中国内地，特别是在二三线城市开发商业物业。
主要业务
- 物业租赁（41.69%）
- 物业销售（58.31%）
- 其他业务（0%）
关键高管
- Chan Chichung, Ronnie - 主席
- Yin Shang Shing - 副主席
- Chen Nan Lok, Philip - 高级执行董事
- Yuen Wai Leung, Nelson - 首席执行官
- Ho Hau Cheong - 非执行董事
- Executive Directors - 未具体列出
关键假设
| 指标 | 2015E (%) | 2016E (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 上海写字楼租金增长 | 0 | 0 |
| 上海零售租金增长 | 5 | 5 |
| 香港零售租金增长 | 5-8 | 5-8 |
收益敏感性分析
| 指标 | 基准情形 | 拜耳情形 |
|---|---|---|
| 上海写字楼租金增长 (%) | 0 | (10) |
| 上海零售租金增长 (%) | 5 | (10) |
| 香港零售租金增长 (%) | 5-8 | 0 |
| FY15E NAV (HKD) | 34.5 | 32.2 |
| 目标折价 (%) | 30 | 40 |
| 预计价值 (HKD) | 24.1 | 19.3 |
总结
Hang Lung Properties 正在经历强劲的盈利增长和租金收入改善，尤其是在中国二三线城市的商业物业。尽管存在一定的市场风险，如中国经济放缓和政策变化，但当前估值被认为具有吸引力。公司正通过重新调整租户结构和新项目推进，推动租金收入增长，同时维持良好的财务状况。投资建议为 BUY，目标价 HKD24.10，预计提供 14% 的潜在上涨空间。
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载