IMF国际货币组织全球-Central-African-Republic_Request-for-a-Three_93页_1mb

Central African Republic: Three-Year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement Summary

Core Content

The Central African Republic (C.A.R.) has requested a new three-year arrangement under the IMF's Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for SDR 83.55 million (approximately US$115.1 million), which is 75 percent of the country's quota. This arrangement is aimed at addressing the country's protracted balance of payments needs and supporting the implementation of the February 2019 peace agreement and the medium-term development strategy.

Main Objectives

• Maintain macroeconomic stability
• Strengthen administrative capacity, governance, and the business climate
• Address the country's balance of payments challenges
• Promote sustainable growth and reduce poverty

Key Policies and Reforms

A. Sustainably Financing Government Priorities

• Focus on revenue mobilization, spending prioritization, and strengthening public financial management.
• Revenue mobilization measures include daily reconciliation of revenue data, digitalization of tax returns and payments, and enhanced coordination between revenue administrations.
• Public financial management improvements involve eliminating unnecessary public agencies, finalizing the audit of domestic arrears, and strengthening oversight of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

B. Strengthening Public Institutions

• The program aims to improve the capacity of the government to design and implement policies and reforms.
• Structural reforms will enhance governance through strengthening anti-corruption institutions and removing bottlenecks and regulatory impediments to private investment.

C. Protecting the Most Vulnerable and Reducing Poverty

• The program will support humanitarian efforts, including grant financing for pressing spending needs.
• The government will continue to rely on external concessional financing due to its high risk of debt distress and limited revenue base.

D. Improving Governance and the Business Environment

• The IMF will continue its capacity development efforts aligned with the program's objectives.
• The CEMAC regional institutions will support the implementation of foreign exchange regulations and monetary policy frameworks, which are critical for the program's success.

Economic Outlook and Risks

Medium-Term Outlook

• Growth is expected to reach 5 percent over the medium term, driven by recovery in the mining sector, structural reforms, and gradual loosening of energy and transportation bottlenecks.
• Inflation is projected to remain under the CEMAC ceiling of 3 percent.
• The current account deficit is expected to stabilize at around 5.5 percent of GDP.

Risks

• Downside risks include weakened reform implementation before the 2020-21 elections, renewed violence, and a global slowdown.
• Upside risks could come from faster reform implementation and peace agreement execution, which could boost confidence, growth, investment, and capital inflows.

Context and Background

• The C.A.R. has been fragile due to volatile security, limited administrative capacity, poor governance, and lack of social cohesion.
• The government controls less than one third of the national territory, which hinders policy implementation and data quality.
• The country's Human Development Index (HDI) ranks 188 out of 189, with a poverty rate of 72.2 percent in 2017 and very high infant and under-five mortality rates.

Recent Economic Developments

• The 2016–19 ECF-supported program helped stabilize macroeconomic conditions, catalyze budget support, and increase policy implementation capacity.
• Economic growth is expected to recover to 4.1 percent in 2019, driven by mining, forestry, and construction.
• Inflation has abated to an average of 3.1 percent in 2019, and is expected to be less than 3 percent in 2020.
• The current account deficit is expected to narrow to 5.6 percent of GDP in 2019, thanks to increased official transfers.

Program Summary

• The program is supported by the IMF and aims to catalyze external concessional financing.
• It will be phased over three years, with an initial disbursement of SDR 11.936 million (US$16.4 million).
• The program's success is contingent on continued support from development partners and effective implementation of reforms.

Supporting Documents

• Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF team for the Executive Board's consideration.
• Debt Sustainability Analysis: Prepared in collaboration with the International Development Association (IDA).
• Supplement: Provides additional information for the Executive Board.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Highlights the fragility of the country and the importance of the new ECF arrangement.

Key Financial Indicators

Conclusion

The C.A.R. remains in a very fragile situation, with ongoing security challenges, limited administrative capacity, and poor governance. The new three-year ECF arrangement is critical for supporting the peace agreement, addressing balance of payments needs, and promoting sustainable economic recovery. The IMF's support will be phased, with semi-annual reviews, and capacity development is a key component of the program.