IMF-债务和赤字对美国长期利率的影响（英）-2025.7_24页_897kb

Summary of IMF Working Paper WP/25/142: The Impact of Debt and Deficits on Long-Term Interest Rates in the US

This study examines the relationship between US fiscal variables (debt and deficits) and long-term interest rates. Using data from 1976 to 2025 and long-term projections, the research finds that higher debt and deficits are statistically and economically significant predictors of higher long-term interest rates and term premia, with magnitudes similar to Laubach (2009). However, the relationship is unstable over time: it was weak around the turn of the century during periods of fiscal prudence but has strengthened markedly since fiscal positions began deteriorating post-2008, coinciding with increases in debt-to-GDP ratios and low interest rates. The analysis incorporates various controls, including short-term interest rates, population growth, foreign holdings, and economic indicators, highlighting their influence. Recent trends suggest that deteriorating fiscal balances will likely further increase long-term interest rates and financing costs, posing challenges for policymakers and investors.

Key Findings:

• Debt and deficits positively affect long-term interest rates and term premia.
• The link evolved over time: negligible in the 2000s but increasing recently.
• Effects remain significant despite accounting for confounding factors.