2025-05-28-Jefferies-2025年4月澳大利亚医疗保险_全科医生就诊量仍然持平_14页_1mb

报告摘要

Executive Summary

Jefferies Equity Research provides an analysis of the Australian Healthcare Services sector, focusing on Medicare data, pathology, diagnostic imaging (DI), and assisted reproductive services (ARS) performance in April 2025 and broader trends. Key highlights include persistent GP attendance declines due to lower bulk billing rates, mixed quarterly results, driven medium-term revenue growth forecasts, and valuation assessments for major players like Healius, Integral Diagnostics, Monash IVF, and Sonic Healthcare. The report underscores risks from GP volume reductions but highlights potential growth from new government incentives.

Quarterly Highlights (April 2025)

GP Attendances: Volume decreased by 3.1% with benefits paid increasing 0.7%, reflecting continuing downward trends despite policy shifts.
Specialist Attendances: Volume down 0.4%, but benefits up 4.4%.
Pathology: Services increased 1.0%, with benefits growing 2.5%.
DI: Services fell 3.0%, but benefits rose 1.7% due to higher collections.
ARS: Volume dropped sharply by 12.5%, with benefits decreasing 5.1%, suggesting improved average revenue per service.
April had 19 working days, compared to 20 working days in April 2024.

Annual Trends (12-Month View to April 2025)

Pathology services grew 4.0% and benefits by 7.4%, outpacing prior-year averages.
DI services and benefits increased 4.1% and 8.7%, respectively.
GP attendances grew minimally at 0.4%, while ARS volumes declined 2.1% but benefits increased 2.3%.

Pathology Collection Centres (PCCs)

PCC numbers rose by 21 in May 2025, following deregulation in 2010 that boosted market growth to 169% overall.
Major providers like Healius (up 135%) and Sonic Healthcare (up 149%) dominate, with 'Others' showing strong expansion.

Equity Research and Investment Outlook

Company	Rating	Price Target (AUD)	Key Insights
Healius (HLS)	Hold	1.65	Underside in cost-out initiatives; historical declines in GP volumes.
Integral Diagnostics (IDX)	Buy	3.60	Upside from valuation multiple expansion; holds potential for growth.
Monash IVF (MVF)	Buy	1.25	Attractive for IVF sector with medium-term recovery in the area.
Sonic Healthcare (SHL)	Hold	32.50	Steady performance but volume declines risk margins.

Medium-term forecasts (FY25E) suggest health revenue growth of 10% in DI, 6% in pathology, and 2.5% in ARS.

Risks

GP volume declines from lower bulk billing rates could extend downward pressure on clinical labs; ongoing government reviews of PCC rents may influence industry dynamics.

Overall, balanced valuations support moderate optimism despite headwinds from reduced healthcare utilization.

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