2024-09-09-世界银行-缅甸_粮食不安全加剧背景下的农业韧性（英）_77页_3mb

Myanmar Agricultural Resilience Amid Deepening Food Insecurity - Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the state of agriculture and food security in Myanmar from July 2023 to June 2024. It outlines the challenges faced by the sector, including economic instability, conflict, climate shocks, and logistical disruptions. The report emphasizes the need for continued support to vulnerable households and the agricultural sector to ensure resilience and food security.

Main Points

• Agricultural Challenges:
  Agriculture in Myanmar is under strain due to uncertain prices, high operational costs, and conflict-related insecurity. Farm households are increasingly affected by shocks, leading to negative coping strategies such as selling assets and reducing food consumption.

  • Conflict is a major driver of these shocks, especially in regions like Rakhine, Chin, Kayah, and Shan.
  • Farmers in insecure and flood-affected areas still face significant access challenges to agricultural inputs, including fertilizers.

• Food Security Status:
  Food insecurity remains high and is worsening due to rising retail food prices, kyat depreciation, and logistical disruptions.

  • Food prices have increased by 54-78 percent year-on-year, with the poorest households being disproportionately affected.
  • Dietary diversity has declined across all regions, with over 50 percent of households reporting reduced consumption of diverse food items by December 2023.
  • In conflict-affected areas, food insecurity has significantly increased, with 70 percent of households in Kayah reporting concerns about food availability.

• Production Trends:
  Despite challenges, rice production has shown resilience with a 7 percent increase in yields between the 2022 and 2023 monsoon seasons.

  • Fertilizer availability and affordability have improved, with urea and compound fertilizer prices dropping by 50 and 38 percent, respectively.
  • However, regional disparities persist, with insecure regions lagging in production progress due to limited access to inputs and rising operational costs.
  • Sowing and harvesting difficulties have increased, particularly in conflict-affected areas, with 46 percent of households reporting not being affected by conflict in 2023, dropping to 6 percent in 2024.

• Price Trends:

  • Wholesale rice prices have been rising year-on-year, creating a positive outlook for farmers' profitability.
  • Maize prices have remained low due to global market conditions and changing foreign demand.
  • Fertilizer prices have dropped due to lower international prices, but other agricultural inputs, such as plowing and labor, have seen significant increases.
  • Fuel price hikes and power outages have further increased production and food costs.

• Trade Dynamics:

  • Myanmar's food trade declined significantly in 2023, with food exports dropping by 9 percent and food imports by 12 percent.
  • The decline in food exports is attributed to policy restrictions, conflict at border posts, and global price trends.
  • Palm oil imports increased by 20 percent in 2023, but their value dropped due to global price declines.
  • The kyat's depreciation and trade restrictions have made imported food items more expensive and less accessible.

• Economic Overview:

  • Myanmar's economy is struggling, with GDP growth estimated at only 1 percent in the year ending March 2024, still 10 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
  • Inflation remains high, driven by rising food and fuel prices, and is expected to continue.
  • The poverty rate is estimated at 32.1 percent for 2023–24, a return to 2015 levels, with poverty becoming more entrenched.
  • Internally displaced persons (IDPs) are particularly vulnerable, with a poverty rate of up to 48 percent.

• Key Recommendations:

  1. Support Agricultural Production: Increase access to essential inputs such as seeds, machinery, and fertilizers, especially in insecure and isolated areas.
  2. Enhance Food Access: Provide emergency food aid and nutrition-sensitive social protection programs, such as maternal and child cash transfers, to vulnerable groups in conflict-affected regions.
  3. Promote Alternative Livelihoods: Encourage small-scale livestock and backyard vegetable gardening to improve dietary diversity and nutrition.
  4. Address Financial and Logistical Constraints: Improve access to credit, reduce import licensing barriers, and support the development of digital cash transfer systems where mobile coverage is available.
  5. Strengthen Policy and Institutional Support: Develop policies that stabilize the kyat, improve trade flows, and support farmers in accessing markets and extension services.

Key Information

• Food Insecurity:

  • Over 42 percent of farm households reported concerns about food availability in the last 12 months.
  • Food prices have surged, with retail prices increasing by 29 and 37 percent for common and healthy diets, respectively.
  • Conflict has intensified, with a sharp rise in the number of households affected by conflict, particularly in Kayah and Rakhine states.

• Trade and Prices:

  • Food exports fell by 9 percent in 2023, with maize exports declining by 31 percent.
  • The kyat has depreciated by 20 percent against the U.S. dollar, increasing the cost of imported goods.
  • The parallel market exchange rate has widened significantly compared to the official rate, exacerbating inflation and economic instability.

• Poverty and Displacement:

  • The poverty rate in 2023–24 is 32.1 percent, with internal displacements contributing to regional disparities.
  • Over 3 million IDPs are in Myanmar, with 51 percent being women and girls.
  • Most IDPs originate from rice-surplus areas, putting pressure on food self-sufficiency in recipient regions.

• Methodology and Data Sources:

  • The report is based on primary data from the World Bank Farmer Survey (WBFS), reaching up to 1,200 rural farm households.
  • Secondary data includes policy documents, market prices, and reports from international organizations such as the FAO, WFP, and UNHCR.

Conclusion

The agricultural sector in Myanmar is facing severe challenges, with food insecurity worsening due to conflict, economic instability, and logistical issues. Despite some positive trends in production, the overall outlook remains bleak, requiring urgent and sustained support from development partners to address the needs of vulnerable households and ensure long-term resilience.