20170413-USDA-USDA_Wheat_Outlook_2017.04.13_24页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the U.S. and World Wheat Outlook (April 13, 2017)

Core Content

The U.S. 2017/18 all-wheat area planted is projected to be the smallest on record, at 46.1 million acres, representing a 4.1 million acre decrease from the previous year. This decline is driven by low wheat prices, especially for hard red winter wheat, which led many growers to shift toward crops like soybeans, pulses, and corn. The largest reductions in wheat planting are expected in Kansas, North Dakota, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, South Dakota, and Texas.

The 2016/17 all-wheat season average price remains at $3.85 per bushel, unchanged from the previous month. This is over a dollar below the 2015/16 average and the lowest since 2005/06.

Key Market Information

U.S. wheat imports for 2016/17 are reduced by 5 million bushels to 110 million, primarily due to a slow pace of imports from Canada (especially soft red winter and durum wheat).
Ending stocks for 2016/17 are raised by 30 million bushels to 1,159 million, the largest since 1987/88.
Domestic use is reduced by 35 million bushels, mainly due to lower feed and residual demand, as indicated by the Grain Stocks report.
Soybean planting intentions are projected to reach a record high of 89.5 million acres, highlighting a contrasting trend with wheat.

Domestic Outlook

The March Prospective Plantings report confirmed the baseline prediction for a record-low wheat planting area.
Seed use for 2016/17 remains unchanged at 61 million bushels, despite adjustments in 2017/18 planting intentions.
Winter wheat conditions have improved in recent weeks, with 48% of the Kansas crop rated good to excellent as of April 9. Nationally, 53% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent, up from 51% the prior week.
Winter wheat heading is 9% complete as of April 9, compared to 4% the same week in 2016 and a 5-year average of 6%.

International Outlook

World wheat production for 2016/17 is up by 0.3 million tons to 751.4 million, with global supplies increasing by 1.7 million tons.
World wheat ending stocks are projected to rise to 252.3 million tons, up 2.3 million tons this month.
Foreign wheat use is slightly up by 0.4 million tons to 707.9 million, with industrial use in the European Union increasing due to ethanol production.
Foreign feed and residual use is down by 0.9 million tons, mainly due to reduced use in the EU and Ukraine.

Trade and Supply Adjustments

U.S. wheat exports for the 2016/17 international trade year are up by 0.3 million tons to 27.8 million, with June exports expected to be higher than June 2016.
U.S. wheat imports are down by 0.2 million tons to 3.0 million, due to a slow pace of shipments from eastern Canada.
India is projected to import 6.0 million tons, the highest since 2006, driven by government policies and increased demand.
Turkey and Syria have reduced wheat imports, with Turkey shifting to DDGs and cassava for feeding.
Australia has lower wheat exports this month due to slow pace and lower demand from India, despite higher overall supplies.

Summary of Changes

Domestic supply is reduced due to lower imports.
Domestic use is reduced due to lower feed and residual demand.
Ending stocks are up due to reduced use and reduced supply.
International production is up, and ending stocks are projected to increase.
International trade is marginally reduced, with India and Mexico showing increased imports and Turkey and Syria showing reduced imports.

Key Highlights

U.S. wheat planting area is at a record low.
Soybean planting area is at a record high.
U.S. wheat prices remain low, with ending stocks at a near 30-year high.
International wheat trade is slightly reduced, with India and Mexico as major importers.