2022-09-24-菲沙研究所-菲沙研究所-新冠肺炎对加拿大和各省的经济影响（英）_58页_1mb

Analysis of the COVID-19 Economic Impact on Canada (Chapter 1)

Executive Summary

The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted Canada's economy and its provinces, leading to significant economic activity decline. According to the IMF, Canada's real GDP shrank by 5.2% in 2020, followed by projections of 4.6% growth in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022. Provinces varied in their economic responses based on the intensity and duration of restrictions, as well as the spread of infections. Alberta, Quebec, and Newfoundland & Labrador were hardest hit in 2020, while in 2021, Quebec, British Columbia, and Ontario showed the strongest rebounds. Factors like public health measures and restrictions had a more significant negative impact on economic performance than case numbers or deaths alone. The economy gradually recovered but has not fully returned to pre-pandemic levels by early 2022, leading to foregone growth.

Key Findings:

1. Overall Economic Growth

   • Canada's real GDP fell 11% in Q2 2020, rebounding to 2% higher by Q4 2021, but growth remained below pre-pandemic levels.
   • Alberta faced the largest drop (8% in 2020), followed by Quebec and Newfoundland & Labrador.
   • Ontario and Quebec implemented strict lockdowns, contributing to lower growth, while Alberta prioritized fewer restrictions despite higher case counts.

2. Employment and Unemployment

   • Unemployment spiked from 5.7% in February 2020 to a peak of 13.4% in March 2020.
   • Quebec had the steepest employment drop (19.4% by April 2020), while Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Manitoba experienced the least declines.
   • By January 2022, most provinces had not recovered fully to pre-pandemic employment levels. High stringency restrictions were inversely correlated with employment growth.

3. Retail and Automobile Sales

   • Retail sales plummeted during the first wave of the pandemic but recovered aggressively by early 2021, driven by adaptation such as online shopping and curbside pickup.
   • Ontario consistently underperformed compared to other provinces during key pandemic waves.

4. Inflation and Housing

   • Inflation surged from below 1% in mid-2020 to over 5% by early 2022, driven by demand from stimulus measures, supply chain issues, and rising energy costs.
   • Housing prices rose dramatically due to increased demand, low interest rates, and remote work enabling moves to suburban or rural areas. Household savings accumulated during the pandemic also fueled this demand.

5. International Travel

   • Cross-border travel collapsed abruptly in March 2020, with Canadian passengers returning from abroad dropping by 94% within one month. Recovery began in early 2021 but has not returned to pre-pandemic volume. Tourism losses had substantial economic repercussions.

Conclusion

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada was profound, with substantial declines in GDP, employment, and export sectors like aviation. While economic activity gradually recovered after vaccines became available, growth lags behind pre-pandemic levels, reflecting foregone economic opportunities. Provincial performance diverged based on the stringency of restrictions as well as the severity and timing of outbreaks. Despite public health improvements, limited hospital capacity and insufficient infrastructure akin to lessons from SARS remain an issue. Resurgent waves or new variants could further disrupt momentum.