IMF-伊拉克_选定问题（英）-2025_19页_879kb

报告摘要

IMF Country Report: Iraq

Summary

Sources: IMF Staff, Country Report No. 25/184, June 2025
Key Topics: Iraq's economic potential, medium-term non-oil growth, structural reforms, growth drivers, challenges.

Current Situation

Growth in Iraq has been stagnant, averaging about 0.3% since 2018 in non-oil sectors, with low productivity, insufficient investment, and inefficient use of human capital.
Dependence on oil remains excessive, with the public sector overstretched and institutional/ governance hurdles limiting private sector growth.
Youth unemployment is high (around 74% not working or in training in 2022), and demographic pressures will increase the labor force by nearly 8 million by 2033, requiring higher growth for job creation.

Growth Potential and Challenges

Economic growth over the past 20 years has been driven by capital accumulation in the earlier period (2000s), but its contribution has faded.
Low labor productivity, poor regulatory quality (ranking among worst in MENA), high corruption levels, and cumbersome labor market regulations hinder non-oil economy growth.
Recent studies show that governance reform packages can boost growth by up to 6% in 5 years, while reforms in labor markets could increase employment by 1.5%.

Recommendations

A comprehensive reform agenda is needed to improve governance, enhance transparency to fight corruption, reform regulations for business and labor markets, and strengthen the financial sector.
Key areas include:
- Reducing corruption through better asset declaration and procurement.
- Restructuring state-owned banks to promote private sector finance.
- Labor market reforms to increase flexibility, improve TVET training, and streamline regulations.
Such reforms could yield medium-term growth gains of 4.5%, improving the country's position and supporting demographic pressures.

Conclusions

Iraq must prioritize structural reform to unlock growth and meet future socio-economic challenges. Failure to reform will result in inadequate creation of jobs and missed opportunities for sustainable growth.

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