IMF-太平洋岛国的增长战略和多样化（英）-2025.6_47页_4mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Growth Strategies and Diversification in the Pacific Islands Countries"

This analysis examines the growth strategies and diversification potential in twelve Pacific Island Countries (PICs).

Tourism-led Strategy: While tourism contributes positively to growth, scaling up tourism exports to match comparator growth rates (4.3% annualized in Asian LICs) would require substantial investment, exceeding what is feasible for most PICs. Fiji and Palau have achieved higher growth with tourism specialization, but scaling it up has limitations.
Diversification: Diversifying exports has the potential to boost growth and reduce volatility, though evidence is mixed and many episodes are reversed or short-lived. Domestic diversification in one episode in Marshall Islands showed weak or no impact on growth. Notable success for export diversification was seen in Samoa and Fiji.
Policy Framework:
- Horizontal policies improving human capital, infrastructure, macroeconomic management, climate resilience, and institutional quality are crucial.
- Vertical policies can complement this, but must be carefully targeted, scaled, and sequenced to improve policy fundamentals (especially infrastructure and human capital). Avoid programs with high fixed costs or fiscal risks.
- Strengthening regional cooperation is vital due to small market sizes.
Conclusion: Sustainable long-term growth requires a tailored approach combining horizontal foundational improvements and carefully implemented vertical policies, often focusing on boosting exports, especially for tourism-dependent PICs that exceed water availability thresholds (not directly mentioned in the summary but discussed as an environmental ceiling).