> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 宏观经济 # 宏观经济周报 # 2026年第四周 # 一、中国宏观 高频：本周ICHI综合景气指数连续第七周扩张，扩张幅度较前期有所回升，年初经济运行延续正向态势，景气水平在结构调整中保持稳定扩张。从分项结构看，消费景气指数显著上行并处于较高水平，节前需求释放与服务消费活跃共同推动消费端表现走强，成为当周景气改善的核心来源。投资景气指数稳定运行在扩张区间内，虽未出现明显跳升，但企业投资活动节奏平稳，项目推进连续性较强，反映投资端对经济运行的稳定支撑。出口景气指数略低于荣枯线，外需不确定性对整体景气仍构成边际拖累。生产景气指数小幅回落，但仍接近荣枯线水平，工业活动在年初阶段出现阶段性整理。综合来看，当周景气扩张的质量主要体现在需求端改善，消费与投资形成合力，外需与生产的阶段性扰动未改变整体向好格局。随着节后生产节奏恢复及政策预期逐步落地，经济运行有望保持平稳向上的发展态势。 2025年中国进出口45.47万亿元，增长 $3.8\%$ 。其中，出口26.99万亿元，增长 $6.1\%$ ；进口18.48万亿元，增长 $0.5\%$ 。具体来看，一是规模稳中有进、韧性凸显。在外部环境复杂严峻的背景下，2025年中国外贸进出口总值达45.47万亿元、同比增长 $3.8\%$ ，规模再创新高，继续稳固全球货物贸易第一大国地位，体现了外贸体系的整体稳定性与抗压能力。二是结构持续优化、动能加快转换。高技术产品、“新三样”和绿色产品出口保持两位数增长，自主品牌出口比重进一步提升，表明中国出口正由规模扩张向质量提升、由成本优势向技术和品牌优势转变。三是市场布局更趋多元、外部依赖有效分散。对共建“一带一路”国家以及东盟、拉美、非洲等新兴市场进出口增速明显高于整体水平，多元化格局不断巩固，为外贸长期稳健发展提供了更广阔的回旋空间。 图1：ICHI指数反映当下经济运行的冷热程度 资料来源：Wind、iFinD 以及工银国际计算 2026年1月19日 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.com 周烨 (852) 2683 3232 dorothy.zhou@icbci.com # 二、全球宏观 1月13日，根据美国劳工统计局公布的数据，2025年12月美国CPI同比上涨约 $2.7\%$ ，环比上涨 $0.3\%$ ，显示通胀仍高于美联储 $2\%$ 目标的状态但延续温和。12月份住房指数上涨 $0.4\%$ ，是所有项目月度涨幅的最大因素。食品指数环比上涨 $0.7\%$ ，能源指数上涨 $0.3\%$ 。剔除食品和能源的核心CPI环比上涨 $0.2\%$ ，同比涨幅为 $2.6\%$ 。整体来看，12月通胀数据低于预期，进一步强化了通胀处于下行通道的判断。此前11月数据因政府长期停摆导致统计口径受限，住房等关键项目价格未能及时采集，令当月数据的参考价值受到质疑，12月数据给了市场更多的信心，并缓解市场对政策误判的担忧。 1月15日，根据美国劳工统计局公布的数据，截至1月10日当周，美国首次申请失业救济人数降至19.8万人，低于市场预期的21.5万人，也低于前值20.8万人。这意味着企业裁员规模仍然有限，就业端尚未出现明显恶化迹象，劳动力市场在年初保持韧性。从趋势指标看，四周均值同步下行，持续申领失业救济人数也维持在相对低位，显示失业人群规模并未显著扩大。尽管部分大型企业宣布裁员计划，但这些调整尚未在整体数据中体现为系统性冲击。 # 三、市场聚焦 1月14日，美国商务部公布的数据显示美国11月零售销售表现超出预期，主要受到汽车销量反弹与假日购物季消费强劲的带动。未经通胀调整的零售销售额在11月环比增长 $0.6\%$ ，高于 $0.5\%$ 的预期值。 1月14日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示美国11月PPI环比涨 $0.2\%$ ，同比升至 $3\%$ ，主要受能源成本推动。从结构上看，剔除能源和食品后的核心PPI表现相对平稳，成本压力并未在更广泛的领域扩散。服务和非能源商品价格整体涨幅有限，部分领域仍处于温和甚至回落状态。这表明当前通胀反弹更多具有阶段性和结构性特征。 # 重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级 ：分析师目前对于预期未来 12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或“我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。 本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其载明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2026版权所有。保留一切权利。 UK This communication is sent on behalf of ICBC International Securities Limited, being a subsidiary of ICBC International Holdings Limited, a limited liability company incorporated in Hong Kong (collectively with other subsidiaries of ICBC International Holdings Limited, the "ICBCI Group"). 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