GP.Bullhound-2018技术预言：全球技术领域的趋势与创新（英文版）-2018-44页-2mb

2018 Technology Predictions Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Technology Predictions report by GP Bullhound outlines ten key trends that are expected to shape the global technology sector. The report emphasizes the ongoing evolution of technology in various domains, including communication, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, and digital transformation, while also addressing the challenges posed by political influence and regulatory scrutiny.

Main Trends and Predictions

1. An Uneasy Future for Politics and Technology

• Context: Following hacking scandals in national elections, tech firms are facing increased scrutiny over the content they allow on their platforms.
• Key Insight: The influence of digital ad platforms on political outcomes is raising concerns about regulation and neutrality.
• Example: Facebook and Google account for 63% of US digital ad spend, and the 2016 election saw 4 out of every 5 political digital ad spend go to Facebook.
• Impact: Governments and regulators are expected to take more active roles in governing digital political advertising, and tech companies may face financial and operational burdens due to increased security and compliance measures.

2. Cyber Security – Exposure and Adoption

• Context: Cybersecurity is becoming a critical concern for both businesses and consumers due to the rise in data breaches and connected devices.
• Key Insight: Consumers will increasingly demand protection and take action to secure their data.
• Data Points:
  • 50% of US broadband households are very concerned about unauthorized access to their devices.
  • 75% of consumers want tight control over their personal information.
• Trend: Consumer-focused cybersecurity solutions will gain traction, driven by the need to protect against growing threats.

3. Mobile Trumps TV in China

• Context: China's mobile-first economy is growing rapidly, with mobile payments and usage surpassing traditional TV.
• Key Insight: Mobile is expected to overtake TV in terms of usage by 2018, with a significant increase in mobile activity.
• Data Points: Mobile payments in China reached $5.5 trillion in 2016, and mobile usage is projected to exceed TV usage in 2018.

4. Translation Technology Takes Hold

• Context: Advances in machine learning and neural networking are enabling more accurate and natural language translation.
• Key Insight: Translation technology is expected to see widespread adoption, with one billion people using it by 2018.
• Impact: This shift could redefine global communication and reduce language barriers.

5. Over and Out, Email

• Context: Workplace communication is shifting from email to instant messaging platforms.
• Key Insight: The volume of corporate emails in the US is expected to decline in 2018 as platforms like Slack and Messenger gain popularity.
• Reason: These platforms offer greater efficiency and simplicity compared to traditional email.

6. International Labor Arbitrage Flourishes

• Context: The rising cost of living and employment in major tech hubs is prompting companies to expand to other regions.
• Key Insight: Smaller tech firms are likely to establish operations in emerging tech hubs outside of Silicon Valley, Shenzhen, Berlin, and Stockholm.
• Impact: This trend could lead to a more distributed and global tech workforce.

7. The Unlikely Comeback of the Software Suite

• Context: As businesses embrace digital transformation, there is a renewed interest in large IT platforms.
• Key Insight: Software suites are expected to see increased adoption and competition in 2018.
• Reason: These platforms offer comprehensive solutions that can optimize business operations and integrate with other digital tools.

8. Industry 4.0

• Context: The fourth industrial revolution is taking hold in manufacturing and production.
• Key Insight: AI and robotics are expected to significantly boost productivity and quality.
• Impact: Smart factories will drive a sevenfold increase in productivity by 2022.

9. Augmented Reality Adapts for Early Adoption

• Context: AR platforms from Apple and Google are gaining momentum.
• Key Insight: 2018 will be a significant year for AR, with increased consumer adoption.
• Reason: As smartphones become more compatible with AR, the technology will become more accessible and widely used.

10. Regulators Rule on the Boom and Bust of ICOs

• Context: The rise of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) has led to regulatory interest.
• Key Insight: Regulatory agencies are expected to introduce guidelines and regulations for ICOs in 2018.
• Impact: While innovation in ICOs will continue, the regulatory environment will become more defined and structured.

Expert Views

Ben Brabyn, Level39

• Prediction: 2018 will be the year consumers start demanding more cybersecurity protection.
• Observation: High-profile cyber attacks have increased awareness, leading to a shift from potential risks to real threats.
• Opportunity: Consumer-focused cybersecurity companies will see growing demand, especially after a major attack on consumer technologies.
• Fintech Impact: Fintech will also drive investment into cybersecurity, as banks increasingly view it as their biggest challenge.

Methodology

• The report is based on insights from GP Bullhound’s analysts and dealmakers.
• It includes a review of past predictions and their accuracy, as well as analysis of current trends and future expectations.
• The report highlights both the potential and the challenges facing the technology industry in 2018.

Key Takeaways

• The technology industry is poised for continued growth and innovation.
• Cybersecurity and digital transformation are central to the future of tech.
• Political influence and regulatory challenges will shape the landscape.
• Emerging markets and new technologies like AR and translation will play significant roles.
• The shift from traditional communication methods to digital platforms is accelerating.