2005年-世界发展银行全球_The_Gambia_-_Recovering_Fiscal_Discipline___Public_Expenditure_Review_132页_993kb

报告摘要

Summary of the Public Expenditure Review for The Gambia (Report No. 31454 - GM)

Core Content

This report presents a Public Expenditure Review (PER) for The Gambia, conducted by the World Bank in collaboration with other development partners. It evaluates the country's fiscal and macroeconomic performance, the impact of these developments on the poor, and the effectiveness of public financial management institutions. The report also outlines key sectoral issues in education and health and provides recommendations for improving fiscal discipline and public financial management.

Main Views and Key Information

Macroeconomic Trends and Poverty Impact

Low Growth and High Inflation: The Gambia experienced poor macroeconomic performance, with real GDP growth dropping to -3.2% in 2002 before a partial recovery to 8.8% in 2003. High inflation, averaging 17.0% in 2003, and rapid depreciation of the domestic currency were significant issues.
Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit, excluding grants, increased sharply to 14.9% of GDP in 2001 and remained high at 8.1% in 2002 and 6.0% in 2003.
Debt Service: Debt service, particularly domestic interest payments, increased from 23.7% of total recurrent expenditures in 2001 to 36.4% in 2003, crowding out other public spending, including PRSP priority areas.
Poverty Simulation: The poverty headcount rate target of 27% by 2015 is off-track, and the country is on track for only half of the education and health indicators.

Fiscal Performance

Revenue Decline: Tax revenue, especially from international trade, declined and remained relatively low since 2001. The revenue structure is not well developed, with limited domestic revenue sources.
Expenditure Trends: Total expenditures as a percentage of GDP increased in 2001 and remained high in 2002. Off-budget expenditures accounted for 6.8% of GDP in 2001.
Structural Rigidities: Despite efforts to recover fiscal discipline in 2003, structural rigidities in the budgeting system persist, affecting the ability to fund current expenditures adequately.
Wage Decline: The share of wages and salaries in the budget significantly declined, indicating a decrease in the real value of public sector salaries, which may negatively impact civil service morale and performance.

Public Financial Management Institutions and Governance

Institutional Weaknesses: Public financial management institutions are underdeveloped, with significant delays in the preparation and auditing of public accounts. The last public accounts were prepared in 1999 and audited in 1991.
Weak Internal Controls: Internal control and audit systems are weak, leading to poor budget preparation and execution.
Reform Challenges: The implementation of reform initiatives has been problematic due to limited capacity, lack of prioritization, and coordination. The public sector is overwhelmed by the number of reform agendas.
Recommendations: Strengthening institutions, improving data quality, and enhancing internal controls and audits are critical for better fiscal performance.

Education and Health Sectors

Education: The education sector has seen a decline in recurrent expenditures as a share of total expenditures. There is a need to increase funding for education and improve the quality of teaching through training and performance monitoring. Higher allowances for teachers are recommended to reduce attrition.
Health: Health expenditures have also declined, and administrative capacity needs to be strengthened. Financial and non-financial incentives should be introduced to improve personnel retention. Drug supply and distribution systems require better management.

Key Recommendations

Reform Measures	Within 12 months	12 months to 3 years
Fiscal/Macroeconomic Stability
Reduce debt service by maintaining a minimum primary balance of 3.0%	X	X
Improve coordination of fiscal and monetary policies	X	X
Poverty Reduction Policies
Revise and commit to poverty rate targets	X
Strengthen local governments for implementing and monitoring PRSP and MDGs	X	X
Further refine PRSP budget codes	X
Revenue and Expenditure Restructuring
Focus on increasing collection of tax on international trade	X
Decrease expenditures on General Administrations	X
Improve balance between capital and current expenditures	X
Increase recurrent/current expenditures on Education	X
Increase share of salaries and wages	X
Increase expenditures on governance institutions (National Assembly, NAO, DOS for Justice, Judiciary)	X
Institutions and Governance Reforms
Enact and implement the national Revenue Authority Bill	X	X
Improve collection and use of revenue data, focusing on improving revenue projections in the budget	X	X
Reform present system of customs duty waivers and deferments	X
Enact and implement the Government Budget Management and Accountability Bill, but involve AGD	X	X
Fully integrate the preparation and analysis of the recurrent and development budgets	X
Revise and implement MTEF work plan (aligned with plans for the cash budgeting system), including sectoral MTEFs/PERs	X	X
Prepare and implement cash budgeting phase-out plan, but align it with strengthening of internal controls and auditing	X	X
Prepare and implement work plan for strengthening internal controls and auditing	X	X
Resolve discrepancies of actual expenditure data, including by incorporating off-budget expenditures of 2001	X
Improve preparation and implementation of the development budget	X	X
Prepare and implement action plan for updating the general ledger and preparation and auditing of annual public accounts	X
Revise and implement IFMIS work plan, focusing on strengthening IT team, change management, and capacity building	X	X
Prepare and implement civil service reform plan	X	X
Education and Health
Increase recurrent/current expenditures, particularly in Education	X
Improve financial and non-financial incentives for health and educational personnel	X
Strengthen health administrative capacity, particularly the planning unit and for management of supply/distribution of drugs	X

Data Quality Issues

Poor Data Quality: The data used in the analysis are of low quality, with internal inconsistencies that need to be resolved to validate the findings.
Impact on Analysis: The lack of reliable data has hindered the ability to accurately assess the fiscal and economic situation, and the effectiveness of reform measures.

Conclusion

The Gambia faces significant challenges in recovering fiscal discipline and improving public financial management. The report highlights the need for a comprehensive reform agenda, including enhancing institutional capacity, improving data quality, and increasing support for the education and health sectors. Political commitment and strategic planning are essential for the successful implementation of these reforms.

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