20210906-招银国际-CMBI_Research_Focus_List__Our_best_high_conviction_ideas_23页_2mb

报告摘要

CMBI Research Focus List Summary

Core Content Overview

The CMBI (China Merchants Bank Investment) Research Focus List outlines the top long and short investment ideas, with a primary emphasis on long-term growth opportunities across various sectors. The list includes a mix of companies in the Auto, Capital Goods, Property, Healthcare, Insurance, and Internet sectors. The summary below highlights the key companies, their ratings, target prices, and the main investment rationale.

Main Investment Ideas (Long)

Company	Ticker	Sector	Rating	Target Price (LC)	Upside %	P/E (FY21E)	P/B (FY22E)	ROE (FY21E)	Yield (FY21E)	Analysts
BYD – H	1211 HK	Auto	BUY	HK$405	55%	84.6	54.1	8.8	11.3%	Jack Bai/ Robin Xiao
Zhejiang Dingli	603338 CH	Capital Goods	BUY	RMB87.0	19%	37.8	28.5	7.9	23.0%	Wayne Fung
SANY International	631 HK	Capital Goods	BUY	HK$14.3	40%	20.4	16.9	3.1	16.1%	Wayne Fung
ZTO Express	2057 HK	Express Delivery	BUY	HK$306	26%	33.3	25.2	3.0	9.3%	Wayne Fung
Li Ning	2331 HK	Consumer Disc.	BUY	HK$102.84	2%	60.1	49.1	17.6	30.0%	Walter Woo
Prada	1913 HK	Consumer Disc.	BUY	HK$68.09	48%	53.1	38.8	4.4	8.6%	Walter Woo
Innovent Biologics	1801 HK	Healthcare	BUY	HK$116.89	76%	NA	NA	NA	-20.0%	Jill Wu/ Sam Hu
China Pacific Insurance	2601 HK	Insurance	BUY	HK$35.96	46%	NA	NA	0.8	12.4%	Gigi Chen
CR Land	1109 HK	Property	BUY	HK$44.8	51%	4.8	4.4	1.1	14.6%	Walter Woo
CG Services	6098 HK	Property	BUY	HK$91.2	46%	30.0	21.4	25.8	0.7%	Wayne Fung
China Hongqiao	1378 HK	Materials	BUY	HK$15.0	48%	4.4	4.2	0.7	22.2%	Wayne Fung
BYDE	285 HK	Technology	BUY	HK$49.5	41%	16.9	11.8	3.8	15.5%	Wayne Fung
Willsemi	603501 CH	Technology	BUY	HK$370.8	55%	46.0	34.3	13.4	28.5%	Lily Yang/ Alex Ng
Hikvision	002415 CH	Software & IT services	BUY	HK$80.0	55%	28.2	23.1	7.5	29.0%	Lily Yang/ Alex Ng

Key Points and Rationale

BYD – H: Strong auto sales rebound, with NEV sales at 56.7%. The DM-I series is expected to drive growth. Current valuation is low compared to peers, offering upside potential.
Zhejiang Dingli: AWP market is entering structural growth. Upgraded to BUY due to potential margin stabilization and growth from major customer Far East Horizon.
SANY International: Intelligent products and robotic business are key growth drivers. Forward-looking valuation based on 23x P/E.
ZTO Express: Government intervention is expected to end the cut-throat price war, leading to improved profitability. Current valuation is at historical peak.
Li Ning: Benefiting from domestic fashion trend. Strong momentum in 2H21, with improved margins and operational efficiency. Trading at 49x P/E.
Prada: Turnaround confirmed with strong 1H21 results. EBIT margin expected to recover to 15%+ by FY23E. Target price based on 55x P/E.
Innovent Biologics: Leading in biopharma innovation with a comprehensive pipeline. Target price based on DCF model with 15-year terminal growth.
China Pacific Insurance: Better-than-peers new business momentum in 1H21. Focus on productivity and technology innovation.
CR Land: Strong growth in property market with focus on P/E and P/B metrics. Target price based on 50x P/E.
CG Services: Strong growth in property and materials. Valuation based on 45x P/E.
China Hongqiao: High P/E and P/B, with strong growth in materials sector.
BYDE: Technology growth driven by strategic trends. Valuation based on 46x P/E.
Willsemi: Strong growth in CIS business, with recent correction seen as an opportunity. Target price based on 46x P/E.

Recent Additions and Deletions

Additions:

Zhejiang Dingli: Upgraded to BUY due to AWP growth and margin stabilization.
ZTO Express: Added as the government's intervention is expected to end price wars.
Willsemi: Added due to strong CIS growth and strategic opportunities.

Deletions:

Zhejiang Jingsheng: Removed as near-term positives were already priced in.
WH: Removed due to lack of catalysts.
Hope Education: Removed due to lack of catalysts.
ZTE: Removed due to uncertainty around 5G deployment.

Performance of Recommendations

The 17 long ideas in the last report outperformed the MSCI China index by 0.8ppt, delivering a 1.7% return (vs 0.9% for the benchmark).
Li Ning, CR Land, and Zhejiang Jingsheng were top performers, with returns of 15% or more.
10 out of 17 long ideas outperformed the benchmark.

Valuation and Growth Drivers

Companies are evaluated based on P/E, P/B, and ROE metrics.
Target prices are based on projected earnings growth and market trends.
Catalysts include product launches, market share gains, M&A opportunities, and policy changes.

Conclusion

CMBI's research highlights a diverse range of long-term investment opportunities across multiple sectors. The focus is on companies with strong growth potential, favorable valuations, and clear catalysts for future performance. The list reflects a strategic approach to investing in high conviction ideas with sustainable growth trajectories.

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