20140319-DBS_Group-HK_NDR_takeaways__building_its_track_record_11页_269kb

报告摘要

Greenland (Hong Kong) Summary

Core Content

This report from DBS Group Research provides an analysis of Greenland (Hong Kong) (HK:337), a property developer, with a BUY recommendation and a 12-month price target of HK$5.78. The analysis focuses on the company's performance, valuation metrics, and potential catalysts for growth.

Key Information

Current Price: HK$3.90
Market Cap: HK$4,455 million / US$574 million
Free Float: 26%
Major Shareholders:
- Greenland Holding Group: 60%
- Wang Weixian: 14%
Avg Daily Volume: 2.0 million shares
Discount to NAV: 22%
NAV to NAV %: 49%
PE based on fully diluted EPS: 10.1x (FY15)
P/Bk 1H13: 1.3x
Net Gearing %: 44.4% (FY15)
ROE %: 13.7% (FY15)

Main Points

Financial Performance and Outlook

Sales Targets:
- FY14: HK$12 billion
- FY15: HK$18 billion
Gross Margin: Expected to rise gradually to match the parent company's level of 25–30%.
Funding Cost: Projected to drop below 6% in FY14 due to repayment of trust loans.
EPS Growth:
- FY14F: 22.7%
- FY15F: 1,041.8%
Net Profit:
- FY14F: HK$71 million
- FY15F: HK$811 million

Strategic and Operational Factors

Parent Support: Greenland (HK) benefits from the support of its parent company, which provides access to an established research team for land acquisition.
Land Acquisition: All land purchased in 2013 were acquired at reserve prices, with most negotiated by the parent's Chairman.
Product Standardization: The company is focusing on product standardization and improving asset turnover.
Potential Catalysts:
- Stronger-than-expected sales
- Reforms in state-owned enterprises (SOEs)
- Share option schemes to align management and shareholder interests

Valuation and Comparison

PE Valuation:
- FY14: 114.8x
- FY15: 10.1x
PE Yield:
- FY14: 2.2%
- FY15: 1.3%
Dividend Yield: 1.3%
ROE: 13.7% (FY15)
Net Gearing: 44.4% (FY15)
P/Bk: 1.3x
Discount to NAV: 22%

Parent's A-Share Listing Impact

The parent company's planned A-share listing may have a short-term impact on Greenland (HK)'s share price performance, as investors may be concerned about future support.
Greenland (HK) is currently trading at 1.4x P/BV, which is 22% below its NAV.

Comparison with Other Players

Company	Code	Price (HK$)	Market Cap (HK$bn)	14F PE	15F PE	14F EPS Growth	15F EPS Growth	14F PE Yield	15F PE Yield	Dividend Yield	ROE	Net Gearing	P/Bk	NAV to NAV %
China Overseas	688 HK	18.28	149.4	24	6.7	29.84	(3)	5.4	2.3	2.3	18.9	14.9	1.5	30.0
Country Garden	2007 HK	3.24	59.8	23	4.7	6.22	17	3.8	6.6	7.8	21.1	57.9	1.2	39.4
CR Land	1109 HK	15.48	90.3	19	8.7	25.77	22	2.4	2.9	2.4	13.0	38.2	1.2	43.1
Evergrande	3333 HK	3.39	49.4	19	15.2	4.32	(3)	3.5	2.9	6.1	18.9	58.4	0.9	65.9
Longfor	960 HK	9.20	50.1	22	5.4	n.a.	n.a.	4.4	3.2	3.8	18.5	59.4	1.2	n.a.
Shimao Property	813 HK	13.78	47.9	22	5.4	22.85	30	4.1	5.2	4.1	16.8	60.8	1.0	52.0
China Vanke 'B'	200002 CH	12.55	138.2	5.9	23	n.a.	n.a.	4.8	4.1	4.1	21.3	53.9	1.6	n.a.
Agile Property	3383 HK	5.74	20.0	3.4	3.0	10.17	12	5.9	6.3	5.9	13.0	59.4	0.6	74.8
COGO	81 HK	4.72	10.8	3.1	2.5	10.50	10	2.3	2.3	2.3	26.5	11.4	1.1	62.1
Franshion	817 HK	2.42	22.2	6.0	4.6	3.83	33	3.8	5.0	3.8	12.3	53.4	0.8	63.3
Greentown	3900 HK	8.61	18.6	2.4	2.1	n.a.	15	7.9	8.9	7.9	21.7	49.5	0.7	53.5
Guangzhou R&F	2777 HK	9.68	31.2	3.8	3.3	n.a.	16	8.4	9.7	8.4	19.9	99.5	0.9	46.5
Hopson Dev	754 HK	6.81	15.3	5.5	4.4	n.a.	12	0.2	0.9	0.2	4.2	69.2	0.3	n.a.
KWG Property	1813 HK	3.97	11.5	3.2	2.7	n.a.	n.a.	2.7	0.0	2.7	15.2	72.1	0.6	n.a.
Poly (Hong Kong)	119 HK	3.36	12.2	4.0	3.5	n.a.	15	6.1	7.1	6.1	10.3	70.6	0.4	n.a.
Shui On Land	272 HK	1.87	15.0	12.5	6.7	n.a.	2.7	1.5	2.2	1.5	2.5	58.5	0.3	n.a.
Sino-Ocean Land	3377 HK	3.86	28.1	6.7	5.5	n.a.	4.5	6.8	5.3	6.8	8.6	48.7	0.5	n.a.
Soho China	410 HK	5.63	29.7	8.6	21.0	n.a.	6.5	1.5	2.2	1.5	6.7	54.5	0.7	n.a.
Sunac China	1918 HK	3.76	12.5	2.2	1.9	n.a.	n.a.	3.7	5.0	3.7	26.6	71.8	0.8	n.a.
Yanlord Land	YLLG SP	1.065	2.1	7.5	6.7	n.a.	n.a.	5.0	10.5	5.0	7.2	43.0	0.6	n.a.
Yuexiu Property	123 HK	1.49	13.9	5.5	4.8	n.a.	37	4.5	5.3	4.5	8.2	54.5	0.5	n.a.
Greenland (HK)	337 HK	3.90	4.5	114.8	10.1	5.78	23	1.1	1.0	1.1	13.7	87.7	1.4	21.5

Conclusion

The report highlights that Greenland (HK) has a strong potential for growth due to its strategic position within the real estate sector, support from its parent company, and expected improvements in gross margin and asset turnover. Despite a current discount to NAV and the potential short-term impact of its parent's A-share listing, the company is recommended as a BUY due to its promising performance outlook and strong fundamentals.

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