2017年Q2全球经济状况调研报告_22页

报告摘要

Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q2, 2017 Summary

About ACCA and IMA®

ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) is a global professional accounting body with over 198,000 members and 486,000 students in 180 countries.
It works with more than 7,291 Approved Employers worldwide and focuses on promoting global accounting standards and supporting professional development.
ACCA's core values include opportunity, diversity, innovation, integrity, and accountability, aligning with employer needs across all sectors.
IMA® (Institute of Management Accountants) is a global association for accountants and financial professionals, with over 85,000 members in 140 countries.
IMA supports the profession through research, the CMA® program, continuing education, and advocacy for ethical practices.
It is headquartered in the US and operates through four global regions: The Americas, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and Middle East/India.

Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS)

The GECS is the largest regular economic survey of accountants globally, in terms of both respondents and economic variables monitored.
It is conducted jointly by ACCA and IMA and serves as a trusted barometer of the global economy.
Key Findings for Q2 2017:
- Economic confidence dipped slightly, but remained relatively high compared to previous years.
- The confidence index was at its second-highest level in two years, better than the average since the survey began.
- North America was the most confident region, followed by South Asia.
- Middle East had the lowest confidence levels.

Main Concerns and Positives

Top concerns:
- Rising costs (47% of respondents)
- Decreased income (40%)
- Securing prompt payment (not specified)
- Suppliers going out of business (9%)
Top positives:
- Opportunity to benefit from innovation (41%)
- Opportunity to focus on niche products (34%)
Future outlook:
- Only 13% of respondents cited the opportunity to increase orders, indicating a less positive outlook for the next few quarters.

Global Level Analysis

Global economic confidence:
- Fell slightly in Q2, but remained high compared to the past couple of years.
- The number of respondents expecting conditions to worsen exceeded those expecting improvement by 10 percentage points.
Regional confidence:
- North America remained the most confident region.
- Western Europe saw a sharp drop in confidence, with negative expectations exceeding positive by 17 percentage points.
- Asia Pacific confidence increased to a new record high.
- Central & Eastern Europe confidence dipped slightly but remained relatively high.
- Middle East confidence fell sharply to its lowest level since Q2 2016.
OECD vs. non-OECD economies:
- Confidence is higher in non-OECD economies than in OECD economies for the second time since 2011.
- Emerging economies like Brazil, Russia, India, and China are now growing simultaneously for the first time in two and a half years.

Thematic Analysis

Low unemployment and subdued inflation:
- Despite low unemployment in developed economies, inflation remains subdued.
- This creates a dilemma for central banks on when and how to raise interest rates.
US economic outlook:
- Confidence in the US fell to its lowest level in a year.
- The planned stimulus package (tax cuts and infrastructure spending) is likely to be delayed until 2018.
- The main concern is rising costs (45%), followed by decreased income (35%).
Eurozone economic outlook:
- Confidence in Western Europe fell sharply in Q2.
- Rising costs (48%) and decreased income (34%) are the main concerns.
- Exchange-rate movements (32%) are also a major worry due to the euro's appreciation against the USD and GBP.
- The UK's election and Brexit uncertainty are significant factors affecting the Eurozone.
UK economic outlook:
- Confidence in the UK plummeted to its lowest level since Q4 2011.
- The UK's general election and Brexit uncertainty are the main causes.
- The main concern is rising costs (56%), followed by exchange-rate movements (33%).
- 69% of UK companies have no clear plans or are in the early stages of planning for Brexit.
Ireland economic outlook:
- Confidence in Ireland increased slightly in Q2.
- Despite Brexit uncertainty, the economy is otherwise doing well.
- 56% of Irish respondents view Brexit as more risky than beneficial.
- Ireland's exports to the UK account for about 8% of its GDP, making the UK a significant trading partner.
South Asia economic outlook:
- Confidence was higher than in any other region except North America.
- A mixed picture of sub-components: government spending and employment improved, but capital expenditure fell.
- India is rebounding from the 2016 crackdown on the shadow economy, with a strong recovery in economic confidence.
- Pakistan is also showing improvement due to increased Chinese investment and low interest rates.
Asia Pacific economic outlook:
- Confidence reached a new record high.
- The improvement is linked to increased global export demand.
- Rising costs (52%) and exchange-rate stability concerns (36%) are the main issues.
- Most currencies in the region appreciated against the US dollar.
Middle East economic outlook:
- Confidence fell sharply in Q2, mirroring the drop in oil prices.
- The region is at its lowest confidence level since Q2 2016.
- Specific data on concerns and positives is limited in the report.

Key Takeaways

The GECS provides valuable insights into global economic sentiment, with confidence remaining high despite regional fluctuations.
Rising costs are a common concern across most regions.
Brexit uncertainty has had a significant negative impact on the UK and the Eurozone.
Macron's election in France has boosted economic sentiment and hopes for reforms.
Emerging economies are showing stronger growth compared to developed ones.
Asia Pacific and South Asia are the most optimistic regions in Q2 2017.
Central banks face challenges in adjusting monetary policy due to subdued inflation and low unemployment.