20171220-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_496kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an equity research analysis focusing on the Hong Kong market, particularly highlighting the performance of key indices and the financial outlook of Yuexiu Property (123 HK), a property developer. It also discusses the tech hardware sector, specifically the performance of CCM (Camera Component Module) makers like Sunny Optical (2382 HK) and Q Tech (1478 HK), and their relationship with the Chinese smartphone market.

Key Index Performance

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	EPS 17E (%)	EPS 18E (%)	P/E 17E	P/E 18E
HSI	0.7	0.0	33.0	24.6	9.8	13.1	11.9
HSCEI	1.1	0.0	22.9	12.2	10.0	8.6	7.8
MXCN	0.7	-2.6	49.8	28.3	15.3	15.1	13.1
SHSZ300	1.3	-2.6	21.9	17.4	14.9	15.6	13.5
SHCOMP	0.9	-2.8	6.2	24.3	13.3	14.6	12.9
INDU	-0.2	5.7	25.3	15.8	9.6	19.7	18.0
SPX	-0.3	3.8	19.8	22.9	10.1	20.1	18.2
CCMP	-0.4	2.5	29.4	55.1	9.5	24.7	22.5
UKX	0.1	2.1	5.6	139.6	6.6	15.3	14.4
NKY	-0.2	2.5	19.4	39.7	12.6	19.2	17.1

The HSI and HSCEI indices show positive performance over the year, while MXCN, SHSZ300, and SHCOMP have mixed results. The CCMP index shows significant growth in EPS, but UKX and SPX are relatively flat.

Tech Hardware Sector: CCM Makers

Shipment Growth in November 2017

Sunny Optical (2382 HK): CCM shipment growth was 0.5% YoY, lower than the 26.5% YoY average in 10M17.
Q Tech (1478 HK): CCM shipment growth was -34.9% YoY, significantly worse than the 5.3% YoY average in 10M17.
The slowdown in shipment growth is attributed to destocking by major Chinese smartphone manufacturers in November, with YoY smartphone shipment growth declining by 20.7%.

ASP (Average Selling Price) Trends

Sunny Optical: ASP reached Rmb51.1 in the first half of 2017, up 22.9% YoY.
Q Tech: ASP reached Rmb30.7, up 27.5% YoY.
The increase in dual camera modules drove ASP growth for both companies.

Market Outlook

The tech hardware sector is expected to face downstream sales risks, disappointing dual camera penetration, intensifying competition, and sharp Rmb depreciation.

Yuexiu Property (123 HK) Analysis

Financial Performance

Nov 2017 Contract Sales Revenue: Rose 98% YoY to Rmb4.0bn.
GFA Sold: Increased 44% YoY to 176,100 sqm.
YTD Contract Sales Revenue: Up 34% YoY to Rmb36bn.
YTD GFA Sold: Down 7% YoY to 2.0m sqm.
2017 Full-Year Sales Target: Already achieved Rmb36bn, with management expecting Rmb40bn in full-year sales.

Growth Expectations

Contract Sales CAGR (2018-2020): Management expects 30%, higher than the market consensus of 10-20%.
Gross Margin: Expected to remain stable at 25-30%.
Net Earnings CAGR: Targeted to grow at about 20%.

Strategic Moves

Wuhan Project Stake Disposal: A 67% stake in a commercial property project was sold to Yuexiu REIT (405 HK) for Rmb2.3bn, contributing Rmb400m to net earnings in 2017.
Land Bank: The company has a premium land bank of 7.7m sqm in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Bay Area, expected to benefit from land price appreciation.

Subsidiary Yuexiu REIT (405 HK)

DPS Growth (2018-2020): Expected to grow at 5-8%, supported by rental rate increases at Guangzhou IFC and Shanghai Yuexiu Tower.

Investment Recommendation

Rating: Buy
Target Price (TP): HK$2.60
Reasoning: The stock is trading at 0.5x 2017E P/B, which is considered cheap given its premium land bank. The company is transitioning from a regional developer to a nationwide player, with positive earnings visibility and aggressive sales targets.

Key Catalysts

Land Price Appreciation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Bay Area.
Improved ROE from high-margin Guangzhou projects, expected to rise from 6.7% in 2017 to 9.9% in 2019.
Potential Property Injections from its parent company.
Management's Growth Target of 30% CAGR for contract sales is higher than market expectations.

Risk Factors

Downstream smartphone sales falling short of expectations.
Disappointing dual camera penetration.
Intensifying market competition.
Sharp Rmb depreciation.

Rating Definitions

Rating	Relative Performance
Buy	>15% outperform benchmark
Accumulate	5-15% outperform benchmark
Hold	-5% to 5% relative to benchmark
Underperform	< -5% underperform benchmark

Sector Ratings

Sector Rating	Relative Performance
Positive	>10% outperform benchmark
Neutral	-10% to 10% relative to benchmark
Cautious	< -10% underperform benchmark

Analyst Certification

The analysts certifying the report confirm that:

All views expressed accurately reflect their personal views.
No part of their remuneration is directly or indirectly related to the recommendations in the report.

Disclosure of Interests

GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold any shares in the mentioned securities.
No investment banking relationships with the companies in the past 12 months.
Analysts and associates are not officers of the companies and have no financial interests.

Disclaimer

This report is for information purposes only and not an offer to buy or sell securities. It is intended for GF Securities clients and may not be sold in certain jurisdictions. The information and opinions may change without notice, and the report should not replace professional advice.

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