美国和平研究所-阿富汗-巴基斯坦关系与阿富汗未来稳定（英）-2021.8-40页_2mb

Summary of "Afghanistan-Pakistan Ties and Future Stability in Afghanistan"

Core Content

This report, authored by Elizabeth Threlkeld and Grace Easterly, examines the historical and current dynamics between Afghanistan and Pakistan, emphasizing the impact of their relationship on the stability of Afghanistan. It explores the likely future scenarios following the US military withdrawal and outlines policy recommendations for fostering a more stable and cooperative relationship between the two countries.

Main Points

• Three Future Scenarios:
  The report outlines three possible outcomes for Afghanistan after the US military withdrawal:

  1. Negotiated Settlement: A peaceful resolution involving all key stakeholders.
  2. Civil War: A prolonged conflict that could destabilize the region further.
  3. Taliban Takeover: The most probable outcome, with the Taliban likely to dominate the political landscape.

• Taliban's Role:
  The Taliban is expected to be the most influential party in any of the scenarios. The extent of their power will depend on their ability to consolidate control and the level of support they receive, particularly from Pakistan.

• Key Drivers of Conflict and Connection:
  The relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan is shaped by five recurring themes:

  1. Sovereignty Concerns
  2. Security Interests
  3. Geopolitical Dynamics
  4. Cross-Border Ties
  5. Connectivity and Trade

These themes have historically defined the bilateral relationship and will continue to influence future stability in Afghanistan and the broader region.

Key Information

• Sovereignty Issues:

  • Both countries are sensitive to perceived violations of sovereignty.
  • Pakistan is concerned about Afghanistan's refusal to recognize the Durand Line as an international border.
  • Afghanistan objects to Pakistan's interference through proxy groups and policy influence.
  • The Durand Line issue has been a long-standing source of tension, with historical incidents such as the 1954 One Unit Scheme and the 1970s talks between Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Daoud Khan.

• Security Interests:

  • Pakistan views India as its primary regional rival and has used Afghanistan as a strategic buffer.
  • The 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan led Pakistan to support the Taliban as a friendly force.
  • The US and Saudi-backed proxy war against the Soviets created a war economy and disrupted social structures.
  • Post-9/11, Pakistan distanced itself from the Taliban but continued covert support.
  • The emergence of the TTP and concerns over Indian interference have further strained relations.

• Geopolitical Dynamics:

  • The region has been shaped by external powers, including the British Empire, the Cold War, and the US.
  • The British used Afghanistan as a buffer against Russian influence and forced the Durand Line agreement through economic pressure.
  • During the Cold War, Pakistan aligned with the US while supporting the Taliban, and Afghanistan aligned with the USSR.
  • The US has provided significant aid to both countries, reshaping their economies and security structures.

• Cross-Border Ties:

  • The relationship is influenced by the movement of people, including refugees, and familial, commercial, and communal links across the border.
  • Pashtun communities on both sides of the Durand Line have historically played a key role in shaping and resisting state policies.

• Connectivity and Trade:

  • Trade and connectivity have been areas of potential cooperation, though they are often overshadowed by security and sovereignty issues.
  • The Shahtoot Dam project highlighted concerns over water security and regional influence.

Recommendations and Policy Implications

• Dialogue on Sovereignty:
  A dialogue on sovereignty issues, including the Durand Line, could offer opportunities for reconciliation.

  • Many Afghans have become more accepting of the border due to the prolonged conflict.
  • Pakistan has lowered its expectations for overt political interference in recent years.

• Security Cooperation:
  Despite tensions, there have been instances of security cooperation.

  • Afghanistan remained neutral during Pakistan's wars with India in 1965 and 1971.
  • Pakistan has sought to limit militant activity through external pressure, such as FATF sanctions.

• Regional Stability:
  A more stable Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship could contribute to regional security and development.

  • Addressing mutual grievances through dialogue and cooperation is essential.
  • The relationship should not be allowed to be a source of continued mistrust.

Conclusion

• The Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship is deeply rooted in historical tensions and mutual distrust.
• The withdrawal of US forces and the potential for a Taliban takeover will likely intensify these dynamics.
• A durable resolution to the conflict in Afghanistan requires addressing the structural and deeply held tensions between the two countries.
• Engaging with Pakistan through dialogue and cooperation, while recognizing its threat perceptions, is a more realistic path to stability than complete disengagement.

Future Scenarios

• Negotiated Settlement: Possible if both sides prioritize dialogue and reduce hostility.
• Civil War: Likely if external support for the Afghan government is insufficient and the Taliban continues to gain strength.
• Taliban Takeover: The most probable outcome, with the Taliban likely to consolidate power and shape the region's future.

External Support and Funding

• The level of support provided to the Afghan government by the US and its allies will influence the outcome.
• Pakistan's support for the Taliban remains a critical factor in the region's stability.
• The US has provided substantial funding to both countries, reshaping their economies and security frameworks.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of addressing the deep-seated issues between Afghanistan and Pakistan to achieve long-term stability. It argues that while tensions are inevitable, a strategic and patient approach to dialogue and cooperation can lead to a more sustainable and peaceful future for both nations and the region.